With such a tight US balance sheet and all the uncertainty surrounding US new crop it is difficult to see the market trade much lower at this point. For that to happen we will need to see a decent crop in the field and we are still several months away from that.
Taking its bearish cue from imploding outside markets, plus a potential for West Texas next week, the cotton market dropped some 2.00 cents. At one point, Chicago corn was limit-down with soybeans off nearly 70 cents. Such peripheral negativity was too hard for cotton to ignore. Additionally, Thursday’s export-sales report was essentially non-supportive to the market.
Cotton futures jump as USDA raises exports, trims output forecast
ICE cotton futures rose on Wednesday, en route to snapping a three-session long losing streak, on projections for higher U.S exports and lower output in 2020/21 of the fiber in a monthly federal supply and demand report.
The cotton contract for July rose 0.69 cent, or 0.8% to 88.44 cents per lb by 1:37 p.m EDT (1737 GMT), having risen as much as 2.3% earlier in the session.
U.S. cotton production in 2021/22 is projected to rise 2.4 million bales, but total supply is projected at its lowest in 5 years, and both exports and ending stocks are forecast lower than in 2020/21. Production is anticipated at 17.0 million bales, with 12.0 million planted acres as indicated in Prospective Plantings, abandonment projected above the average of the past 5 years, and average yields.
COTTON MARKET MOVES HIGHER AHEAD OF BIG REPORT WEEK
May 09, 2021
The ICE July cotton contract gained 158 points on the week to finish at 89.66 as the July – Dec inversion weakened to 277. The Dec contract gained 183 points for the week, finishing at 86.89. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.