The U.S. 2020/21 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales lower due to higher 2019/20 exports, but exports in 2020/21 are reduced 1 million bales as a 2-million-bale decline in projected output reduces exportable supplies. U.S. planted area is 1.5 million acres lower this month, as indicated in the June 30 Acreage report. Ending stocks are projected at 6.8 million bales, 1.2 million lower than in June, and equivalent to 38 percent of use. The projected price received by U.S. upland cotton producers is 59 cents this month, 2 cents higher than in June.
Global projected ending stocks in 2020/21 are lower this month as well, down 1.9 million bales, largely due to a 2.5-million-bale reduction in projected world production. While the United States accounted for most of the global decline in production, projections were also reduced for Turkey, Tanzania, and Mexico, more than offsetting a 200,000-bale increase for Pakistan. Consumption in 2020/21 is projected 115,000 bales lower this month. At 114.3 million bales, consumption is expected to rise 11.7 percent from the previous year’s recession-reduced level.