Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jan 2020
Posted : February 25, 2020

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

 

  • Daily Physical Spot Rate

 

  • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

 

  • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

 

  • Cotlook Index

 

  • ICE Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX Kapas Rate

 

  • MCX Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

 

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

 

Conclusion

  • New Year 2020 started with ICE March Future at 69 cents level and remained very volatile between 69 to 72 cents range. Last two days of the month suffered three digits losses on the news of spread of corona virus and closed the month at 67.50 cents breaking phycological bottom level of 68 cents.
  • During the month events like signing of the Phase One of US-China Trade deal and also trade pact US - Mexico – Canada agreement were supportive to the market. So mid-week of the month was bull market.
  • On way to Chinese lunar new year holidays the fear at corona virus in china has impacted highly on market sentiment. last week of month was panic selling and ignored all bullish news.
  • US export sales during this month was excellent at 11,15,292 bales and well ahead to reach the target set by USDA of 16.5 m bales.
  • Despite decent US export sales and Chinese presence in commitment and shipment, market turned red in the last week due to fear of economic slowdown from corona virus.
  • Other origin like Brazil had good sales and now basis of Africa and Brazil are higher.
  • In coming month ICE option expiry and final roll over to May contract. So lead month will be NY May future from Feb-23.
  • CCI played major roll of purchase during this month. Daily arrivals almost crossed 2 Lakh bales mark almost throughout the month. Cumulative arrivals crossed 2 crore bales. This is the fastest arrival of last decade mainly because of CCI procurement speed.
  • Gujcot spot rate started the month with 39,650 and ended at 39,500, nearly unchanged but in between it had travelled higher to 41,000, a day before signing of US-China trade deal.
  • Huge arrivals put pressure on cotton seed rate. International markets also put pressure on domestic cotton rates. So, all gains of first half of the month was washed off in second half of the month because of corona virus issue.
  • At the end of January CCI has procured around 52 lakh Bales and Maharashtra federation has procured around 5 lakh bales. Still government is unclear about sale policy of cotton purchased under MSP.
  • Overall January was month of full very high arrivals, big volatility and the highest government procurement.
  • Indian basis was attractive between 0.37 to 3.39.
  • Indian exporters also got orders from china and shipped nearly 8 lakh bales to various origins during the month and also carried some big orders for Feb dispatch as basis were attractive. Weak Indian Rupee also supported exports.
  • Gujcot pressing data collection process is underway. At end of January it is expected to cross 50 lakh bales of 170 kg.
  • Indian basis remained between 0.37 to 3.39.
  • Indian Rupee remained between 70.81 to 71.93 during this month.

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