Market Reports
China Cotton Auction FINAL
  • 12-March-2018 To 30-Sept-2018

    METRIC TONNES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 5,256,286
    Cumulative Sales 2,510,279
    Remaining Stock 2,746,007

    BALES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 24,142,123
    Cumulative Sales 11,529,712
    Remaining Stock 2,612,411
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
  • Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA

    Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
Brazil: More cotton acreage is being planted
  • Shifting Corn Acres to Cotton

    While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.

    Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
DTN Cotton Close 21-Aug
  • Higher Within Sideways Pattern

    The market finished surprisingly higher Wednesday, although cotton remains confined in a congestive pattern. Holding a December chart out at arm’s length, one readily sees the massive negative trend unfolding since Easter, but also how lately, ICE Futures have been trading in a tight, narrow pattern. Of course, some traders see such formation as either bottoming action for an eventual rally, while others may view it as the bear catching his breath before ultimately trading lower.
Cotton Indices and Spot Rate As on 21-Aug-2019
  • Cotlook A Index 70.50 Unch

    US Upland Spot Rate 55.19 +0.70

    Brazil Cotton Index 61.06 +0.53%

    KCA Spot Rate 7,800 Unch

    MCX Spot Rate 20,700

    China Cotton Index
    As on 22-Aug-2019

    CC Index 328 13543 -15
    CC Index 227 12518 -5
    CC Index 229 13881 -17
ICE Cotton Update
  • Cotton futures rise 1% on short covering ahead of export sales data

    ICE cotton futures rose over 1% on Wednesday as some investors covered their short positions ahead of the weekly export sales data due on Thursday and traders said the natural fiber was seeing some pickup in demand at current price levels.

    Cotton contracts for December rose 0.70 cent, or 1.18%, to 59.84 cents per lb at 1:25 p.m. EDT (1725 GMT).
Stock Position as on 21-Aug-2019
  • NCDEX

    Cotton Seed Oil Cake Stock
    Unencumbered = 6,938 MT
    Pledged = 000 MT
    QTY in Process = 120 MT

    MCX

    Total Utilized Capacity = 1,23,300 Bales
    Eligible for Exchange Delivery = 1,15,400 Bales
    Quantity in Process = 3,100 Bales
    Rejected Stocks = 200 Bales
USDA Prospective Plantings
  • USDA Planting Intention

    US All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

    Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018.

    American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.
Reinhart Cotton Market Report 25 Apr
  • India – Physical prices traded steady last week on slow selling from ginners and slow emand from domestic mills. As per the latest CCI report, India’s current cotton crop arrivals reached 27.88 million bales until 16th April 2019. The Indian rupee depreciated against the US dollar and is now around 70.10 (spot), mainly due to surging crude oil prices.
Indian Raw Cotton Export-Import 2018-19
  • INDIAN COTTON EXPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    6,63,386 Tones
    39,02,271 Bales of 170 Kg

    INDIAN COTTON IMPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    1,01,072 Tones
    5,94,541 Bales of 170 Kg

China Cotton Auction
  • From May 5 to August 22, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 724,300 tons, and the turnover rate was 85.50%.
US Cumulative Cotton Export Sales - Countrywise
  • US Cumulative Cotton Export Sales

    01-August-2018 To 16-May-2019

    PIMA 7,07,319
    UPLAND 1,46,22,154
    TOTAL 1,53,29,473
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Looking Beyond the Uncertainties of Trade Tensions  

    The trade dispute between the United States and China has impacted cotton demand and supply chains over the course of the past year. On 1 June 2019, China is set to increase tariffs on $60 billion of US goods in retaliation to the US tariff increase on the remaining $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Highlight

    FAS Post estimates India’s marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29.3 million 480 lb. bales (37.5 million 170-kilogram bales/6.4 MMT) from 12.45 million hectares of planted area.

    MY 2019/20 cotton consumption at 25.3 million 480 lb. bales (32.4 million 170- kilogram bales/5.5 MMT)
Thompson On Cotton 06-Jun-2019
  • A Bounce With A Weak Starting Point

    Cotton prices have rebounded in the past few weeks due to unfavorable weather and encouraging export sales. But before you get too excited, this bounce is off lows in the mid 60s.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter Jun-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Most benchmark prices decreased over the past month. Chinese prices moved sharply lower.

    Open interest has shifted from July and into the December contract.  After moving lower in early May, values for the July contract were volatile but range-bound between 65 and 70 cents/lb for most of the past month.  Values for the December contract also moved lower in early May.
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Highlight

    FAS Post estimates India’s marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29.3 million 480 lb. bales (37.5 million 170-kilogram bales/6.4 MMT) with a planting area of 12.5 million hectares. Planted area for Kharif 2019 season in Northern India is 18 percent higher than last year, prompted by high domestic seed cotton prices.
USDA -World Markets and Trade
  • China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position
    as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
USDA - Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Global Cotton Mill Use Growth Varies by Country

    The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cotton projections for 2019/20 (August-July) indicate that world cotton mill use is forecast to resume its growth after a 1.3-percent decline in 2018/19. Global cotton consumption is projected at 124.3 million bales in 2019/20, 2.6 percent above 2018/19’s 121.1- million-bale estimate, as lower global cotton prices support the rebound.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 11-07-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 54,000
    Upland Shipments 3,10,300
    Net Pima Sales -5,300
    Pima Shipments 11,400
    TOTAL SALES 48,700

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 2,18,900
    Net Pima Sales 500
    TOTAL 2,19,400
Shurley on Cotton 24-Jul-2019
  • Making Sense of the USDA Outlook

    USDA’s August crop production and supply and demand estimates will be released in a couple of weeks. This will be the first production estimates of the 2019 crop year based on actual producer survey.

    US Crop

    The 2019 US cotton crop is currently estimated at 22 million bales—3.6 million bales or 20% higher than last season. Will the first producer-based projections be higher or lower than 22 million bales?
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 18-07-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 1,63,000
    Upland Shipments 3,18,300
    Net Pima Sales -800
    Pima Shipments 8,100
    TOTAL SALES 1,62,200

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 2,08,000
    Net Pima Sales 2,100
    TOTAL 2,10,100
Plexus Market Comments 25 Jul
  • So where do we go from here?

    It looks like the market has made at least a temporary bottom last week, when it posted back-to-back lows of 61.66 and 61.67 cents and then bounced. However, while some light short-covering and call options buying has given the market a lift, we need to see greater buy-side liquidity in order to generate some lasting upside momentum.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JULY 26, 2019

    FUTURES PRICES RISE TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN ALMOST THREE WEEKS

    • Crop Progress Improves
    • Strong Export Sales Report
    • USDA Releases MFP Details
    • Trade Negotiations on Tap
    • Federal Reserve Set to Meet
Jernigan Global Weekly 29-Jul-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. WILL INTERNATIONAL APPAREL BRANDS PULL OUT OF HONG KONG AS BEIJING BEGINS TO APPLY THUG TACTICS?

    2. PRESSURE TO PULL ALL SOURCING OUT OF CHINA DUE TO XINJIANG CAMPS AND REPORTS OF ORGAN HARVESTING

    3. US CHINA TRADE TALKS RESUME THIS WEEK IN BEIJING

    4. INDIA’S MONSOON RAINS AGAIN DISAPPOINT, AND CRISIS EXPANDS IN GUJARAT

    5. US EXPORTS SHIPMENTS SUGGEST A CRISIS IN UNSHIPPED SALES AS TOTAL NEARS THREE MILLION BALES

    6. ICE FUTURES CLOSE HIGHER FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
Cleveland On Cotton 28-Jul-2019
  • 3 Items to Watch This Week

    What do I know? In spite of all the bearish sentiment I have expressed the past few weeks ICE cotton futures moved higher on the week.

    December settled at 64.54, marking the fifth higher settlement over the past six sessions and one of the stronger weekly increases in some time.
USA - Cotton Prices Point to More Corn for 2020
  • It doesn’t seem that long ago Hurricane Harvey hit Texas in August, followed by Hurricane Irma in September. That was in 2017, and in both cases cotton production was lost. In some cases, even bales already harvested were ruined in the storms.
India's Cotton Textiles Export Update for FY (April – June) 2019-20
  • India’s Cotton Textiles Exports

    Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.

    In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Report Highlights:

    Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29 million 480 lb. bales (37.1 million 170-kilogram bales/6.3 MMT) with a planting area of 12.5 million hectares. Planted area for Kharif 2019 season in Central India is five percent higher than last year due to high domestic seed cotton prices and delayed monsoon rains that limited alternate crop planting options. MY 2019/20 mill consumption is lowered due to weak global demand, which is carried over from the current 2018/19 season.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 25-07-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales 10,200
    Upland Shipments 2,91,200
    Net Pima Sales 2,600
    Pima Shipments 6,700
    TOTAL SALES 12,800

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 3,64,800
    Net Pima Sales 8,800
    TOTAL 3,73,600
Plexus Market Comments 01 Aug
  • So where do we go from here?

    With an escalating trade war looming, with global cotton production trending towards 127 million bales, with global demand cooling and with the technical picture rolling over, the market is currently facing a lot of headwinds and the path of least resistance continues to be down for now.
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jul 2019
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jul 2019

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate
    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate
    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing
    • Cotlook Index
    • ICE Future Closing
    • NCDEX Kapas Rate
    • MCX Future Closing
    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
Cleveland On Cotton 02-Aug-2019
  • Opportunity is Ripe but Not for Farmers

    The dog days of summer came hard to cotton as the expected market crash finally occurred. December broke below 60 cents, establishing a new life of contract lows at 59+ and setting the stage for a trip down to the long ago forecast of 55 cents.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • AUGUST 1, 2019

    FUTURES CLOSE IN THE LOWER END OF THE TRADING RANGE

    • Crop Progress Reported at or Near Five-Year Average
    • Exports Reported Lower Than Previous Week
    • FOMC Lowers the Target Range for the Federal Funds Rate
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 29th Jul 2019 to 03rd Aug 2019

    • NY future witnessed free fall after president Trump's announcement to impose tariff on 300 billion of Chinese goods. NY future lost 442 points in last two days of the week and weekly loss is 512 points. With this blood bath December future created new contract low and damaged all support lines and closed below 60 cent psychological mark.
Rose On Cotton 03-Aug-2019
  • ROSE ON COTTON – COTTON CRASHES, SETTLES BELOW PSYCHOLOGICAL 60 CENT LEVEL, US – CHINA TRADE ACCORD SEEMS UNLIKELY

    It was a dismal week for ICE cotton futures, with the Dec contract giving up 512 points, finishing south of the psychologically important 60.00 level at 59.42.  The July – Dec spread weakened to (129).

    Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely prediction available in our complete weekly report) predicted a settlement that was to be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s finish, which, unfortunately, proved correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 05-Aug-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. COTTON TEXTILE SUPPLY CHAINS FACE MASS DISRUPTIONS

    2. STORM CLOUDS GATHER ACROSS THE SUPPLY CHAIN

    3. HONG KONG UNREST EXPANDS; CHINA THREATENS TO SEND IN TROOPS

    4. INDIAN CROP SEES DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT AS RAINS ARRIVE

    5. US UNSHIPPED PROBLEMS CONTINUE AS PRICES FALL FURTHER

    6. CFR BASIS LEVELS REMAIN WEAK AMID UNCERTAIN DEMAND AND POOR OUTLOOK FOR CHINA

    7. ICE FUTURES COLLAPSE FOLLOWING A SHARP FALL ACROSS CHINESE INDUSTRIAL FUTURES COMPLEX
Cotton Inc. Executive-Cotton-Update Aug 2019
  • U. S. Macroeconomic Indicators & the Cotton Supply Chain

    August 2019

    Macroeconomic Overview: According to the advance (preliminary) estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter. In the first quarter, the U.S. economy grew 3.1%. The slowdown in the second quarter was primarily a result of a sharp reversal in business inventories, which went from a 6.2% rate of growth in the first quarter to a 5.5% reduction in the second quarter.
Thompson On Cotton 07-Aug-2019
  • Wildly Variable Crops Going into Home Stretch

    The main topic of conversation this week concerns the cotton market’s unexpected 295-point loss last Friday, settling below 60 cents for the first time since 2016. Actions by both the US and China clearly indicated an escalation in the ongoing trade war between the two countries. At the news, panic selling ensued sending the commodity and financial markets reeling. We will discuss this in much more detail in our next Market Commentary.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 01-08-2019

    2018-2019
    Net Upland Sales -3,100
    Upland Shipments 2,72,700
    Net Pima Sales -4,200
    Pima Shipments 1,900
    TOTAL SALES -7,300
Plexus Market Comments 08 Aug
  • So where do we go from here?

    We feel that the market has discounted most of the bearish news that’s out there, with perhaps the exception of lower mill use, which we expect to result from a slowing global economy.
Cleveland On Cotton 09-Aug-2019
  • Market Looking for Guidance

    Cotton continued its price slippage on the week as the December contract settled the week at 58.90 cents, just 15 points below the October weekly settlement. With the market facing bearish woes on both sides of the supply demand aisle, prices are left with little hope but to continue drifting lower.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • AUGUST 9, 2019

    COTTON FUTURES FALL ON NEW TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT

    • Open Interest Rises in Heavy Trading Volume
    • Crop Conditions Decline
    • Export Sales Fall Short
    • Awaiting Next WASDE Report
    • Expectations Low for Trade Resolution
Rose On Cotton 10-Aug-2019
  • ICE COTTON CLOSES LOWER AHEAD OF WASDE REPORT, SPECS EXPAND NET SHORT TO RECORD 5M + BALES

    The ICE Dec contract lost 52 points on the week, finishing at 58.90. However, the Dec – Mar spread strengthened to (96).

    Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely prediction available in our complete weekly report) predicted a settlement that was to be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s finish, which, unfortunately, again proved correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 12-Aug-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. CREDIT ISSUES NOW IMPACTING COTTON AND MMF USE IN CHINA AS CAPITAL FLIGHT AND USD SHORTAGES ACCELERATE

    2. MERCHANTS ATTEMPT TO FIRM CFR BASIS LEVELS DESPITE WEAK DEMAND

    3. UNSHIPPED US EXPORT SALES A MAJOR LIABILITY AS PRICES FALL

    4. ADDITIONAL RAINS REPORTED IN INDIA’S GUJARAT REGION

    5. ICE FUTURES FIND SUPPORT FROM LACK OF TRADE SELLING
Shurley on Cotton 13-Aug-2019
  • Where to Go From Here?

    I’ve devoted the last 30 years of my life to cotton growers and the cotton industry. Prior to this, I witnessed the 1980’s when financial problems took a toll on many farm businesses and I led an effort working with farmers and lenders to help save some operations while on faculty at the University of Kentucky.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter August-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    All benchmark prices decreased over the past month.

    • The NY December contract set new life-of-contract lows in dropping from 63 to 58 cents/lb between mid-July and early August. NY futures had not traded below 60 cents/lb since 2016.

    • The A Index fell from 74 to 70 cents/lb from mid-July to early August.
Thompson On Cotton 14-Aug-2019
  • Thompson On Cotton: Planning Amid Chaos – Possible Approaches

    Almost before the ink was dry on my last commentary – where I observed that the low 60s should provide firm support – the trade war between the U.S. and China escalated once again.

    President Trump, at China’s failure to honor previous trade concessions, imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imported goods from China. In retaliation, China devalued its currency against the dollar, and President Xi announced state-owned companies would purchase no U.S. agricultural products.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 08-08-2019

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 3,29,100
    Upland Shipments 2,74,200
    Net Pima Sales -3,800
    Pima Shipments 12,500
    TOTAL SALES 3,25,300

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,51,200
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,51,200
USDA - Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook

    U.S. Cotton Product Trade Increasing in 2019

    The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
PLEXUS Market Comments
  • August 15, 2019

    So where do we go from here?

    As pointed out last week, we believe that the US government loan is acting as a buyer of last resort, which provides the market with a floor at around 57/58 cents. When financial markets sold off this week, cotton managed to close the day slightly higher, which seems to confirm that there is solid support in the high 50s.
Cleveland On Cotton 16-Aug-2019
  • Carryover Will Cast A Long Shadow

    December cotton futures flirted with 60 cents all week. The August world supply demand report was negative, as expected, but had been built into the market before its release. Thus, the 57-61 cent trading range was never challenged. The week’s activity did note very strong export sales that, likewise, were already in the market. Thus, the positive sales report did not add any bullish enthusiasm to the market.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • AUGUST 16, 2019

    COTTON FUTURES UP SLIGHTLY

    • WASDE Report Shows Consumption Slowing
    • Crop Conditions Slightly Improving
    • Export Report Shows Many Countries Buying U.S. Cotton
    • Classing Report Shows Good Quality from South Texas
Jernigan Global Weekly 19-Aug-2019
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. HONG KONG AT THE EDGE OF THE ABYSS; WILL CHINESE PARAMILITARY TROOPS ENTER? US LINKS HONG KONG TO TRADE

    2. BRAZIL FOB AND CFR BASIS LEVELS REMAIN FIRM AS CROP MOVEMENT INCREASES

    3. CHINESE BONDED WAREHOUSE STOCKS REMAIN AT RECORD LEVELS AND UNSOLD

    4. USDA WASDE RAISES US CROP WHILE LOWERING CHINESE COTTON CONSUMPTION

    5. CHINA’S MAN-MADE FIBER PRICES CONTINUE UNDER PRESSURE

    6. INDIAN MONSOON AGAIN HEAVY IN GUJARAT

    7. ICE FUTURES FIND SUPPORT AND DRIFT HIGHER
Rose On Cotton 17-Aug-2019
  • ROSE ON COTTON – ICE COTTON MANAGES TO FINISH WEEK AHEAD OF 60.00, DEMAND FOR US COTTON EVIDENT BELOW 60.00

    The ICE Dec contract managed a 123-point gain on the week, finishing above the psychologically important 60.00 level by thirteen ticks. The Dec – Mar spread strengthened to (59).
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 15-08-2019

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 1,63,900
    Upland Shipments 3,44,000
    Net Pima Sales -5,000
    Pima Shipments 8,400
    TOTAL SALES 1,58,900

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 500
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 500