USDA - WASDE Report
In this month’s 2021/22 U.S. cotton projections, beginning stocks are slightly larger, and a 536,000-bale decrease in production results in lower exports and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are larger as estimated exports for 2020/21 are reduced 50,000 bales based on final Export Sales data and Census Bureau data through June. NASS’s first survey-based estimate of production for 2021/22 is 17.3 million bales. Exports are 200,000 bales lower than in July, and ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower, equating to 17 percent of expected use, the same as in 2020/21. The U.S. season-average price for upland cotton is forecast 5 cents per pound higher than in July which, at 80 cents, would be its highest since 2011/12.
Lower production is reducing this month’s 2021/22 global ending stocks forecast slightly. World production is forecast 546,000 bales lower as reduced production in Brazil, the United States, and Uzbekistan offsets higher projections for Australia, Mali, and Tanzania. Consumption is forecast slightly higher, up 170,000 bales, with gains for Bangladesh and Pakistan. World 2021/22 cotton ending stocks are projected at 87.2 million bales, about 500,000 bales lower than in July, and 4.6 million lower than in 2020/21.