August 23, 2021
By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
Taking its cue from a falling U.S. dollar and a surging Dow Jones, cotton managed to eke out a slightly higher close Monday. Volume however was a mild 20,000 contracts. The market was also helped along by very positive data from the CFTC. Its report indicated that managed-money funds have surpassed their February peak as far as contracts owned.
Last Friday, the CFTC reported the funds were net long some 81,000 contracts, which is equivalent to some 8.1 million bales. In February, at December’s price peak, they were roughly 72,500 plus contracts net long.
Monday afternoon USDA will update the condition of the 2021 crop. Last week, the government reported the nation’s cotton crop was 67% good/excellent, which is reportedly some 33% higher than the ten-year average. Yet according to more than a few subscribers, the Southeastern Crop is going backwards.
Constant rainfall has leached out much needed nitrogen, while other fields are drowned out. The crop conditions update is out at 4 p.m. EDT.
The U.S. dollar was markedly lower Monday as traders anticipate that the Federal Reserve will continue its monthly debt buy-back program of $120 billion, plus will delay its tapering mechanism. Last Friday saw the U.S. dollar post a 17-month high.
For Monday, December settled 93.36, up 26; March ended at 92.69, plus 43 points; Red December (2022) ended at 83.25, 30 points higher. Monday’s estimated volume was 20,591 contracts.