DTN Cotton Close: Market Keeps Its Cool, Stays Aloft
October 4, 2021
After overnight selling attempted to build upon Friday’s reversal, cotton futures were able to stabilize and finished higher Monday. Several research groups labeled Friday’s action as a key reversal with a certain national analyst actually selling the ICE Futures.
Supposedly the published risk is a new high basis for December cotton. While this time of year cotton typically posted its lowest levels for the season, unanswered questions over the production of India, China and the U.S. are keeping a healthy bid under the trade.
To that end Monday afternoon, USDA will update the condition of the 2021 crop as well as the progress of its harvest. Last week, tabulators surprisingly improved the condition of the crop to 65% good to excellent. However, since that time, heavy rains have fallen over West Texas as well as the Delta. This week those same rains are moving across the Southeast.
The last trading day for the typically forgotten October contract falls this Thursday, Oct. 7. While much of the trading nation ignores this initial fall contract, many long-term technical traders do allow for it into their trading schemes.
OPEC+ said on Monday it was sticking to its existing agreement among its members for a gradual increase in oil output. That decision sent crude prices to three-year highs, possibly adding inflationary pressures.
The previously agreed upon deal called for 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to be added in November. There have been cries from big consumers, such as the United States and India, for extra supplies after oil prices surged more than 50% this year.
U.S. Trade Representative Kathrine Tai delivered a speech Monday in Washington, D.C., outlining the Biden administration’s China trade strategy. According to the remarks, Tai supposedly said the U.S. has serious concerns about China’s state-centered and non-market trade practices. In other words, China has yet to fully live up to the terms of the phase one trade deal.
For Monday, December settled at 104.93 cents, up .40 cents; March ended at 102.59 cents, up 1.15 cents; and red December (2022) ended at 85.89 cents, .80 cents higher. Monday’s estimated volume was 29,036 contracts