Monthly Rate Movement Report – Sep 2020
Posted : October 24, 2020
Dear All Cotton Friends,
In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.
In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.
- MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate
- USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing
- NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.
Dear Cotton Friends,
- Welcome to new cotton crop season 2020/21. Team Gujcot wish all stakeholders prosperous new season and good earning. Also, team Gujcot wishes good health to all our friends in this pandemic time. Our humble request to maintain social distancing, wear a mask and follow government guidelines.
- NY December future was a front month as American cotton season 2019-2020 is over by 31st July and NY July expired in first half of July. ICE December traded in very small range of 62.80 to 66.80, just 4 cents range in full quarter. WASDE, Hurricanes, Elections, stimulus packages, equity market, volatility in currency market and big US Cotton export numbers to china remained main factors of volatility in market. All these factors worked in different direction; market volatility remained in a very narrow range.
- US Export numbers were good and met 2019/20 USDA export target. 22.86 million Bales sales was carried forward and at the end of September new year’s total commitment stands at 82,64,627 Running Bales out at that 22,57,455 Running Bales already shipped.
- USDA reduced U.S. Crop to nearly 17 million bales but huge opening stock is giving full inventory to ship cotton before new crop is harvested.
- China has started to offload reserve cotton stock and nearly 100% of the offered cotton was sold out. Overall, according to various agencies world’s cotton production during 2020/21 season will exceed world’s yearly cotton consumption by nearly 4 million bales. So, fundamentally again we will see huge opening stock in season 2021/22 also.
- Due to COVID-19 lockdown during April-May, ginning factories remained active during last quarter of the cotton season. First time in the history of Gujarat, so many ginning factories remained active till last day of the season. July more than 200 factories were active, August 135 factories remained active and September also nearly 100 factories were running.
- Gujarat July Pressing was 5,45,128 Running Bales, August pressing was 2,85,158 Running Bales and September also more than 1.5 lakh Running Bales pressing is expected.
- At the start of the last quarter of this season, spinning mills were running at slow pace with various problems like government restrictions, labour shortage and lower demand in yarn which kept prices under pressure. C.C.I. almost stopped their MSP procurement by 30th June. So, July to September huge quantity of kapas was available to ginners at affordable rate and ginners were running their factories with good ginning parity.
- Gradually economic activity resumes in India and abroad so demand also increased and with demand rate also started to increase. Cotton prices in July started with nearly 33,000 rupee a candy and remained range bound during July but from August onwards rate advanced fast with increasing demand. Cotton corporation also started bulk quantity discount and was able to sell bulk quantity during August. After huge sales C.C.I. change their bulk discount policy and gave level playing field to small and large quantity buyers.
- Government of India abolished Cotton Advisory Board and now all statistical work will be done under agriculture ministry. Committee has put cotton crop for cotton season 2019-20 at 357 lakh bales of 170 kg.
- New crop arrivals also started in small quantity during September.
- Indian Rupee appreciated from 75.50 in July to nearly 73 in September.
- Indian basis traded negative during whole quarter but improved from -800 point to -300 points. As compared to other origins Brazil and West Africa also reduce their basis to stay competitive in export market.
- C.C.I. and reseller of C.C.I. cotton maintained cotton liquidity into market.
- Weather remains good for crop season 2020/21. Standing crop is in good condition. Sowing area reached 129 lakh hectares. current year ended with historically high ending cotton stock of more than 1 crore bales.
- Hope New Year will give good parity to ginners. Farmers will be happy to sell to C.C.I. on new MSP rate.
- Cotton Industry is in double mind. If C.C.I. procure aggressively and international prices doesn’t support than Indian cotton will be out of competition in export market and despite huge crop Indian mills will not able to compete in world market.