The first forecast of the 2026/27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows lower production and ending stocks, and higher exports and beginning stocks compared to 2025/26, with consumption unchanged. Planted area is projected at 9.64 million acres based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report.
Macro headlines are expected to drive the market this week, with talks involving Iran back in focus, a meeting with China on deck, and a busy slate of economic and fundamental data ahead.
Market Movement from 04th May 2026 to 09th May 2026.
• NY futures traded with huge volatility during the week. Following the news of a possible end to the conflict, crude oil prices declined sharply. However, as no concrete solution emerged, prices recovered and regained strength later in the week.
ICE Cotton Futures (July contract) opened the month near 73 cents and sustained strong upward momentum throughout the period. The key driving factor was the rise in crude oil prices amid escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which boosted overall commodity sentiment. Supported by positive technical indicators and speculative buying, the NY July contract closed above the 82-cent mark.
Macro will stay in the driver’s seat this week, with several moving pieces likely to influence overall direction.
• Friday’s jobs report is the main event. Expectations are fairly neutral, so the reaction will matter more than the number itself. The dollar will be key to watch – strength there would likely lean against export-heavy commodities like cotton, while any weakness could be supportive.
.JPG "Gujarat Cotton Pressing Summary")
