The factors mentioned last week led the market higher as cotton bulls celebrated again. However, exciting as it is to see prices move higher, there is considerable work to be done if cotton is to cover the full cost of production. Yet it is wonderful news. Finally, I am giving in and agree that the old crop price low is in.
This week is shaping up to be anything but quiet after the U.S. carried out airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, drawing the U.S. into conflict in the Middle East and bringing volatility across markets.
Market Movement from 23rd Feb 2026 to 28th Feb 2026.
• New York cotton futures have consolidated with the March contract moving into expiry, and the lead month has now shifted to May. Some buying related to on-call fixation has provided slight momentum to the market. At present, on-call purchases are nearly balanced with on-call sales for the current season. However, after certain rolls to December, on-call purchases for the next season remain comparatively high. Overall, the May contract closed the current month with a gain.
Cotton bulls celebrated Thursday’s close as prices on the nearby March contract eked out a close near 62 cents. Many are proclaiming the market low is in, but I am not one. However, we do hope they are correct.
Markets head into a quieter data week, but policy headlines and macro signals will continue to drive the tone.
• Investor sentiment improved after the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs supported equities and pressured the dollar, though uncertainty remains around the administration’s next steps on trade policy, including the proposed move to a 15 percent global tariff. When trading activity normalizes this week, it should be largely back to business as usual.