USDA’s October supply demand report was the one that analysts knew would solve the bullish/bearish price dilemma that has faced the market for the past five months. They all thought it would, including me. Collectively, we knew better.
Market Movement from 07th Oct 2024 to 12th Oct 2024.
• NY December, trading remained within a narrow range throughout the week. Low export sales indicated sluggish demand. In the October WASDE report, the USDA cut U.S. cotton production by 3,00,000 bales, but this was offset by lower exports and reduced mill use. Overall, the WASDE report was neutral, with only minor changes compared to the September report. As a result, December futures closed the week with a loss of 106 points.
Cotton futures remained rangebound for the week, but the October WASDE report was a bearish surprise to the market. As traders absorb these changes, all eyes are now on harvest progress and global supply dynamics. Was the USDA accurate in its production estimates, or could further adjustments be on the horizon? Get QuickTake’s read on the week’s events in five minutes.
Compared to last month, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, mill use, and exports. NASS reduced the estimate of U.S. all-cotton production by slightly over 300,000 bales to 14.2 million in its October Crop Production report, primarily reflecting the damage from Hurricane Helene.
Market Movement from 30th Sep 2024 to 05th Oct 2024.
• NY Dec futures moved from 72.72 cents/lbs on 27-Sep to 73.27 cents/lbs on 04-Oct, recording a W/W gain of 0.55 cents.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 26-Sep-2024, U.S. export sales of cotton showed modest activity. Net Upland sales for the 2024-2025 marketing year reached 95,900 bales, while Upland shipments were higher at 1,07,100 bales.