There are no changes to the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet or to prices this month.
For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, the global production forecast is raised over 1.1 million bales because of higher production in Brazil (larger area) and China (higher yield), partially offset by lower production in Argentina (reduced area).
After two weeks of feeding the bulls, the cotton market fell back into its long-established trading range as prices spent the week struggling, just as they have for the past year, and unfortunately just as they will for the coming year. Note: Please let that comment prove to be incorrect. The May futures contract did break below its price support at 64 cents, suggesting that the 61-62 cent price low could return.
This week is shaping up to be driven far more by macro forces than traditional agricultural fundamentals, as the war in Iran has ignited a sharp increase in energy markets and triggered broader commodity buying.
Market Movement from 02nd Mar 2026 to 07th Mar 2026.
• NY futures did not show much movement during the week. The March contract closed at 63.61 cents on 27-Feb and 63.19 cents on 06-Mar, registering a week-on-week loss of 0.42 cents.
NY Futures (March and May) traded within a 300-point range during the month. March futures moved between 61 and 64 cents, while May futures traded in the 63 to 66 cents range. The issue of higher on-call purchases versus on-call sales in the old crop has largely been resolved, with positions being transferred to the new crop ahead of the March expiry.
