December futures sank to their lowest level in over two years.
• Price pressure came from all directions this week. A weak technical outlook, speculators retaining a near-record short position, declining outside markets, and talks of a bigger crop caused the significant sell-off. The near-term outlook is bearish, with the summer doldrums in full swing and current market conditions.
USDA’s July crop production and supply/demand estimates were bearish and cast a somewhat dimmer price outlook likely for the near term. Following is a summary of the major changes:
• Exports for the 2023 crop year were lowered 200,000 bales to 11.6 million bales. This is not unexpected given the poor pace of shipments recently.
USDA’s July world supply demand report, released the prior week, made for seesaw trading all week. Prices saw 100 points higher one day, only to slide 100 points the next as the December contract ended the week nearly unchanged.
Market Movement from 15th Jul 2024 to 20th Jul 2024.
• At the start of the week, there was some short covering by speculators, and the market crossed 72 cents. However, lower exports and dull buying pushed back all gains, leading to December future closing with a loss of 57 points week-over-week.
After trading back and forth throughout the week, cotton futures found support and made marginal gains.
• Last Friday’s WASDE put pressure on prices, but Monday saw a triple-digit rally in futures prices. Prices fluctuated throughout the week due to speculators continuing to cover short positions and potentially favorable rainfall in Texas.