COTTON: Changes to the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet are minimal this month with the export projection reduced 200,000 bales on lagging sales and ending stocks raised by the same amount for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 32 percent. Production, beginning stocks, and mill use are unchanged. The projected 2025/26 season average upland farm price is lowered 1 cent to 60 cents per pound.
Same song, tenth verse. First notice day is around the corner, and the expiring futures contract, now the March contract, is moving to new lows, a trend the market has witnessed for over a year. Too, the soon-to-be spot month May futures are falling to the prior March lows, another trend observed for nearly 18 months as cotton prices continue to fall, fall, fall.
Markets are stepping into a high-impact week, with major macro releases sharing the spotlight with key commodity updates. Between CPI, the delayed jobs report, and fresh supply-and-demand estimates, there’s no shortage of potential catalysts.
Market Movement from 02nd Feb 2026 to 07th Feb 2026.
• As the March contract approached expiry, the market remained under significant pressure due to additional certified stocks added by traders and higher production estimates projected by ICAC. Despite substantial on-call purchases that still need to be settled or rolled over, sentiment continued to weigh on prices. Consequently, NY March futures closed near 61 cents, registering a weekly loss of 211 points week-on-week.
NY futures traded in a tight range of 63–65 throughout the month. Despite supportive factors such as a better WASDE and strong export sales, the market failed to sustain gains and break the upper band.
Overall, the market remains stuck in a narrow range.
.JPG "Gujarat Cotton Pressing Summary")
