Gujcot Second Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2025-26
During the second quarter of 2026, ICE cotton futures displayed a mixed trend with an initial phase of weakness followed by a strong recovery towards the end of the quarter.
At the beginning of January, both ICE March and May futures traded in a relatively stable range, with ICE May hovering around 65.50–66.50 cents and ICE March near 64.00–65.00 cents.
Market Movement from 30th Mar 2026 to 04th Apr 2026.
• During the week, stronger export sales and firm crude oil prices supported another positive week for NY futures. NY May closed with a weekly gain of 146 points.
Markets will likely remain driven by geopolitics, with Middle East developments and energy price volatility continuing to outweigh traditional fundamentals in the near term.
Cotton’s month-long rally continues to give. The trend calls for higher prices as the world market feels pressure from the potential for adequate supplies for the 2026-27 marketing year. Additionally, the near-term imbalance between on-call sales and on-call purchases continues to squeeze prices higher. Not only have both old crop and new crop futures moved higher, but prices have also been much stronger than forecast and appear to be defying odds of climbing even higher.
Market Movement from 23rd Mar 2026 to 28th Mar 2026.
• Short covering and rising crude oil prices kept upward momentum in NY futures. Shipments of more than 4 lakh bales during the week also provided positive support. Ultimately, the NY May futures contract closed with a handsome week-on-week gain of 215 points.
Cotton’s three-week rally gave us the 68 cents suggested last week, and then some. Yet, the market has now posted three consecutive down days. That should not be viewed as evidence that the rally is over. To the contrary, the same factors that sent prices higher are still in the market.