Market Movement from 13th Nov 2023 to 18th Nov 2023.
• This week, the New York futures market demonstrated stability with a modest upward trend. In particular, the December New York futures saw a gain of 160 points, while the March futures experienced a more significant increase of 201 points.
A Better Week, as Lower Cotton Prices Lift Exports
Nov 17, 2023
Cotton prices held the line in weekly trading as last week’s low prices encouraged good export sales. That, coupled with government released economic data hinting, on the surface, at an improved economy, gave prices a higher nudge every day of the week.
Market Movement from 06th Nov 2023 to 11th Nov 2023.
• Wishing to all our cotton friends a joyous and prosperous Diwali and a New Year filled with abundance. May this festival illuminate your lives with light, bless you with good health, and bring forth wealth and success.
• Team Gujcot extends our warmest wishes for an earning-rich and stress-free year ahead for all our cotton friends.
COTTON PRICES CONTINUED TO DECLINE, REACHING AN 11-MONTH LOW DURING THE WEEK
• Stock Market Was Higher Most of the Week • U.S. Production was Raised 270,000 Bales to 13.09 million Bales on November WASDE Report • Strong Export Sales were Reported but Shipments Continue to Disappoint • As of November 5, 57% of the 2023/24 Crop Has Been Harvested Across the Cotton Belt
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks this month. Production is 273,000 bales higher, at 13.1 million bales, as lower production in Texas is more than offset elsewhere. Domestic mill use is 100,000 bales lower, reflecting the pace of recent consumption, and exports are unchanged, leaving ending stocks 400,000 bales higher at 3.2 million bales or 22.5 percent of use.
After months of repeated challenges, our biggest fear was market support in the low 80’s would break. How appropriate it would do so Halloween week. It appears sellers were spooked by frightful technical signals and a geopolitical environment which could have horrific consequences. As a result, after three consecutive days of triple digit losses the market closed below 80 cents for the first time since June.
Market Movement from 30th Oct 2023 to 04th Nov 2023.
• On October 27, New York December cotton futures were valued at 84.38, but by November 3, their price had dropped to 79.62, marking a weekly decrease of 4.76 cents. NY December has dropped below 80 cent technical level so it open door of new bottom.
DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLED BELOW 80.00 CENTS PER POUND FOR WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 2
• Stock Market Finished Higher after the Federal Open Markets Committee Held Interest Rates Steady • Marketing Year High Reached in Both Upland and Pima Sales for the Week Ending October 26 • Hard Freeze and Wet Weather Stalled Harvest, but Warmer Temperatures Expected in Week to Come
• In October, the New York Futures for December consistently fluctuate within a price range of 82 to 88 cents. On the other hand, March futures consistently exhibit a carrying cost with a price range of 84.5 to 88.5 cents.
Market Movement from 23rd Oct 2023 to 28th Oct 2023.
• During the past week, the New York December market experienced a notable increase of 198 points week-over-week. This gain can be attributed to a combination of improved export sales and advantageous mill fixation rates.
"Navigating Challenges: A Recap of the 2022-23 Indian Cotton Market Season"
The Indian cotton market in the 2022-23 season witnessed a series of unique challenges and fluctuations, impacting both cotton mills and farmers. Here we provide an overview of the season, highlighting key events and factors that influenced cotton prices and market dynamics.
DECEMBER FUTURES FELL BELOW RECENT LONG-TERM TRADING RANGE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 27
• U.S. GDP Surged in Third Quarter, Beating Market Expectations • An Uptick in Demand for U.S. Cotton Reported for Week Ending October 19 • Adverse Weather in Coming Week Could Hinder Harvest Activities Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
Positive Week for Cotton, But Beware Growing Consumer Stress
Oct 27, 2023
Cotton prices were down two of the five trading days this week but still closed on the positive side of the 9-, 100-, and 200-day support lines. December did settle 198 points higher on the week – a real market winner compared to the Dow, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. December futures ended the week at 84.38, but down 21 points in Friday’s trading but up 198 points on the week.
DECEMBER FUTURES FELL BELOW RECENT LONG-TERM TRADING RANGE FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 19
• U.S. Retail Sales Higher than Expected, but Clothing Sales Declined, Adding Pressure to Cotton Prices • Lackluster Demand for U.S. Cotton Reported for Week Ending October 12 • Favorable Harvest Weather Set to Continue in Upcoming Week
Market Movement from 16th Oct 2023 to 21st Oct 2023.
• This week in the New York Futures market, bearish sentiment dominated as the daily intraday performance of New York December futures experienced consistent downward movements, ultimately closing with narrow losses. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict played a significant role in shaping the market's performance during this period.
DECEMBER FUTURES FELL TO LOWER END OF TRADING RANGE, SETTLING LOWER FOR FOUR CONSECUTIVE SESSIONS
• CPI Marginally Higher than Expected, Increasing 0.4% in September • U.S. Total Cotton Production Expected to be 12.817 Million Bales • Weak Sales and Poor Shipments Reported for Week Ending October 5 • Favorable Harvest Weather Expected Across West Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas in the Coming Week
Market Movement from 09th Oct 2023 to 14th Oct 2023.
• The NY December future closed at 86.06, recording a weekly loss of 1.08 cents.
• The main highlight of the week was a pronounced pre-WASDE loss on Wednesday, which was followed by a noticeable rebound in prices on Friday. These fluctuations were accompanied by concerns arising from a new conflict in Gaza, which sparked moments of panic within the market.
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. Production is 315,000 bales lower at 12.8 million bales, down 2 percent from a month earlier as lower yields in Texas offset gains elsewhere. With production projected lower and exports down 100,000 bales to 12.2 million, ending stocks are reduced 200,000 bales.
Gujcot Fourth Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
We are here providing you comprehensive overview of the various factors affecting cotton prices and production during July-September period. Here's a summary of the key points:
1. Cotton Price NY Future Trends: The price of cotton in the NY futures market during July was in the range of 79-84 cents but moved higher to 84-88 cents in the following two months. There were attempts to break the resistance at 88 cents, but failed to sustain due to weaker demand and macroeconomic challenges.
Encouraging best describes the way cotton prices withstood last week’s onslaught of poor economic news. Its underlying strength was found in a shrinking crop. With eighteen percent of the U.S. crop now harvested less than favorable yields are fast becoming a reality. Traders weighing short supplies versus dismal demand are desperately seeking confirmation.
Market Movement from 02nd Oct 2023 to 07th Oct 2023.
• Welcome, all cotton enthusiasts, to the start of the new 2023/24 season! This marks the first weekly report of the season, and we extend our best wishes for a prosperous and successful season ahead to all our fellow cotton enthusiasts.
• NY Dec cotton futures closed at 87.15 on September 29th, slipped to 87.14 on October 6th, resulting in a week-over-week loss of 0.01 cents.
DECEMBER FUTURES FOLLOWED OUTSIDE MARKETS FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 5
• Slew of Activity Caused Major Indexes to be Mixed • Healthy Demand for U.S. Cotton Reported for Week Ending September 28 • As of October 2, 18% of the U.S. Crop has been Harvested
Can the 90-Cent Cotton Market Barrier Be Breached?
Oct 06, 2023
Cotton prices fell below 87 cents on the week but quickly rallied, yet they were unable to trade up to 88 cents. Thus, after last week’s rally above 89 cents, the market fell back into another protracted line of back-and-fill trading.
The 90-cent technical resistance barrier continues to be “A Bridge Too Far.”
For the past three months cotton prices have traded in a range from 85 to 90 cents. Last week proved no exception. After prices fell to 85 cents, last week mill fixations and spec buying drove prices to a three-week high of 89.89. Unfortunately, ninety cents again proved insurmountable as grower hedging forced prices lower closing Friday at 87.15 for a weekly gain of 124 points. Such an advance with a government shutdown all but certain was very impressive.
DECEMBER FUTURES FINISHED HIGHER FOUR OUT OF FIVE TRADING SESSIONS
• Major Indexes were Mixed and Crude Oil Reached a 13-Month High • Market Ignored Poor Export Sales for Week Ending September 21 • As of September 24, 13% of the U.S. Crop has been Harvested
Market Movement from 25th Sep 2023 to 30th Sep 2023.
• The ICE December cotton futures traded at 87.15 cents per pound, reflecting an increase from its value of 85.91 cents on September 22nd. Throughout the week, there was a notable uptick in cotton prices, reaching a high of 89.89 cents per pound on September 28th, resulting in a week-to-week change of 1.24 cents to the upside. However, when comparing the monthly changes, the cotton futures showed a decrease.
Cotton’s Tight Price Range Faces Little Pressure to Change
Sep 29, 2023
This week’s cotton rally was technical based. Fundamentals have essentially prohibited the market from moving above the 90-cent mark, a resistance level that has withstood four challenges. The resistance line is neither battered nor bruised, but eventually a door that is continually kicked will break.
Dec cotton futures gave up 53 points on the week (the very same 53 points it gained last week) finishing at 85.91, with the Dec – Mar spread strengthening a bit to (84). Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct. Dec has commenced the new week notably higher.
• Fed Held Interest Rates Steady at September Meeting • A Net Total of 105,400 Upland Bales and 800 Pima Bales were Sold for the Week Ending September 14 • Above Average Temperatures and Precipitation Expected in the Week Ahead
Market Movement from 18th Sep 2023 to 23rd Sep 2023.
• NY Dec futures traded at 86.44 on 15-Sep, dipped to 85.91 on 22-Sep, resulting in a week-over-week loss of 0.53 cents. NY December trading market exhibited a relatively tight trading range, fluctuating between 85.5 cents and 88.5 cents.
Certificated stocks continue to flock to the Board, implying that the best market for U.S. cotton is delivery against the New York ICE futures contract. More troubling for those wishing – and hoping – for higher prices is that futures prices above 87 cents are better than the price offered by mills.
We entered last week expecting a great deal of market volatility as a host of fundamental and macroeconomic reports were scheduled for release. So it was, after advancing over 200 points ahead of the September WASDE it fell prey to the old buy the rumor, sell the fact idiom. Thus, giving back nearly all these gains to close Friday at 86.44, for a paltry gain of 53 points on the week.
Market Movement from 11th Sep 2023 to 16th Sep 2023.
• NY Dec cotton futures saw a weekly gain, rising from 85.91 cents on September 8th to 86.44 cents on September 15th, marking an increase of 0.53 cents.
DECEMBER FUTURES TRADED HIGHER FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK
• Strong Economic Data Has Many Betting Another Pause in Interest Rates Will Occur • U.S. Production Cut to 13.13 million Bales • Demand for U.S. Cotton Remains Tepid • Only 29% of the Cotton Crop in the U.S. is Rated Good to Excellent
Stagnant Demand Continues to Suppress Cotton Market
Sep 15, 2023
Certificated stocks are coming to the Board. So what? Who cares?
Better care!!
It means that someone believes the best market for cotton is the futures market delivery mechanism. If delivery against futures is the best market for stocks, then it means the cash market does not want/need cotton. Of significant importance is that stocks are being moved to a privately-owned warehouse as opposed to a merchant/cooperative warehouse.
COTTON: The 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections include higher beginning stocks but lower production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are increased 550,000 bales, largely reflecting ending stocks data for the previous year from the Agricultural Marketing Service and the NASS Cotton System Consumption and Stocks report.
DECEMBER FUTURES REACHED HIGHEST LEVEL IN A YEAR BEFORE TURNING LOWER TO FINISH THE WEEK
• Crude Oil Prices Reached Highest Level in 2023 • Delayed U.S. Export Sales Report Held Higher than Expected Demand for U.S. Cotton • Crop Conditions Basically Unchanged from Week Prior
Market Movement from 04th Sep 2023 to 09th Sep 2023.
• It was a turbulent week in NY future. NY December surrendered all the gains from the previous week. China's increase in auction quantity has led to a sharp decline in the Chinese futures market, ZCE. Some farmers, engaged in price-fixing, and improved crop conditions have once again pushed prices below the 85 cents range, ultimately closing at 85.91 cents, resulting in a significant weekly loss of 404 points.
Keep An Eye on Cotton Prices and USDA September Report
Sep 08, 2023
December cotton futures lost all of last week’s price gains and then some, falling below 85 cents before correcting and positioning itself before making a run to the upper end of the trading range. Speculators were credited with the prior week’s run up and their associated profit taking, and the continuation of poor demand and weak economic indicators led the retreat to the 85-cent level.
COTTON MARKET AGAIN FINISHES WEEK WITH STRONG GAINS
Sep 05, 2023
The market gained 264 points last week, finishing at 89.95, with the Dec – Mar inversion expanding modestly to 18. Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct. Dec has commenced the abbreviated week significantly lower.
Last week was a case of bad news for some was good news to others. Hurricane Idalia was expected to take her Category 3 winds east of all but a small portion of the Georgia crop. Instead, upon landfall it veered slightly northward damaging a much larger expanse of the state’s crop. While abroad, China’s economy has slumped to the point its government announced Friday monetary policies would be instituted in an effort to bolster it.
Market Movement from 28th Aug 2023 to 02nd Sep 2023.
• "New York Cotton Futures for December demonstrated robust performance, increasing from 87.31 cents on August 25th to 89.95 cents on September 1st, resulting in a significant week-over-week gain of 2.64 cents. Furthermore, the month of August witnessed a notable upward trend, with prices rising from 84.72 cents on July 31st to 87.82 cents on August 31st, indicating a substantial month-over-month gain of 3.10 cents."
I was wrong. Again. Last week’s price rally was no tease. This week’s news was real, and particularly good news at that. Cotton had a monumental week, shooting up to 90 cents, basis December and settling at 89.95, the best move in nearly a year. The August USDA world supply demand report set the stage for a price rally into the low 90’s but anemic demand had blocked prices from moving higher.
• During the August, the NY December Futures attempted multiple times to break out above the 88 cents level, but each attempt proved unsuccessful. The NY futures remained confined within a narrow range of 83 to 88 cents.
• The WASDE report delivered a bullish outlook as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the U.S. crop by 2.5 million bales. This bullish sentiment from the WASDE report initially pushed the NY futures toward the upper boundary of the established range.
DECEMBER FUTURES FINISHED AUGUST IN THE UPPER END OF RANGE
• Outside Markets Higher Much of the Week Despite Unclear Economic Outlook • U.S. Export Sales Higher for Week Ending August 31, but Demand is Still a Concern • Damage to Crop from Hurricane Idalia Will Likely Be Minimal
The Big Tease – cotton prices shot higher on the week. Each successive daily close was higher than the prior day’s close. That folks, is the definition of an uptrend. Let’s get excited.
Too, the market captured the prior week’s losses. Sounds bullish – whatever that word means.
Market Movement from 21st Aug 2023 to 26th Aug 2023.
• New York December cotton futures recorded a value of 83.62 on August 18, which then rose to 87.31 on August 25, resulting in a weekly loss of 3.69 cents.
DECEMBER FUTURES MADE MODEST GAINS FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 24
• Equity Markets had a Mixed Week Before Eventually Settling Lower • Demand for U.S. Cotton Dismal for Week Ending August 18 • Deteriorating Crop Condition Continues to Worry Traders
The market (Mar) lost 427 points last week, finishing at 83.62, with the Dec – Mar spread near flat at 7. Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be incorrect. The Dec contract experienced only one day of non-negative action last week with its 1-point gain on Friday. Dec has commenced the new week higher.
Market Movement from 14th Aug 2023 to 19th Aug 2023.
• NY Dec cotton futures exhibited a downward trend, starting at 87.89 cents on 11-August, dipping to 83.62 cents by 18-August, resulting in a weekly loss of 4.27 cents.
THE COTTON MARKET RELINQUISHED GAINS FROM LAST WEEK’S WASDE REPORT
• Equity Markets Struggled with Mixed Economic Data • Surprising Demand from China Found on U.S. Export Sales Report for the Week Ending August 10 • U.S. Crop Continues to Deteriorate, Stemming from the Southwest
COTTON: In this month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections, beginning stocks are larger, and a 2.5- million-bale decrease in production results in lower exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are larger as this month’s 2022/23 ending stocks are increased 450,000 bales reflecting slightly lower exports and July 29 warehouse inventory levels in the AMS Bales Made Available for Shipment report.
December futures string of daily highs ended last week at eight. But not before reaching 88.39 which proved to be a trigger point for grower selling. However, as warned, when riding a wave of spec buying in a market environment with questionable underpinnings a reversal is always lurking. Such was the case on Thursday, when a triple digit selloff all but erased earlier gains. The tipping point being an overbought position, pressure from grower selling, and bleak exports sales.
• NY July Future expired on 8th July, and now the front month is December. NY December new crop future stayed within a narrow range for the first 18 days but then started to trend upwards after the 18th July. Some short covering and speculative buying pulled the market to a new high of 87.90, but it eventually settled near the mid-eighties.
Gujcot Third Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• During the third quarter of the cotton season (April to June) NY July future remained within a range of 77 to 87 cents, while December future remained within a narrow range of 77 to 84.
• The NY Future market attempted to break out of these ranges multiple times but was unable to sustain those breakouts. This suggests that there may have been various attempts to push the market beyond these established price levels, but the momentum was not strong enough to sustain the price movement outside of the given ranges.
The cotton market was somewhat higher Monday, inspired by adverse weather unfolding across the Belt, as well as continued supporters from Friday's acres report.
The cotton market was somewhat higher Monday, inspired by adverse weather unfolding across the Belt, as well as continued supporters from Friday's acres report.
• During the month of May, NY July cotton future have not been able to break out of the long-term range of 79-86. The latest WASDE report was somewhat favorable for the market, with an increase in U.S. exports and a decrease in ending stocks. Export sales have been decent, leading the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise the US export estimate from 12.2 to 12.6 million bales.
Cotton’s Slow Period Continues... But Planting Decisions Are Coming Soon
With the current season coming to a close it is time to start shifting our focus to the next season with high hopes and anticipation. Most of the Northern Hemisphere cotton producing countries have started planting, are preparing for planting, or are thinking about planting. Soil moisture is an essential ingredient for a successful planting operation.
Cotlook’s May supply and demand forecasts indicate lower consumption and higher world ending stocks for both 2022/23 and 2023/24
Cotlook’s forecast of global raw cotton output in 2022/23 has been reduced this month, by 69,000 tonnes to 24,852,000 tonnes. Reductions for the African Franc Zone and the United States were partially offset by increases for China and Australia.
Since plummeting to the low 70s last fall, new crop December 2023 futures roller-coastered up, then down, then up again to near 86 cents by the end of January. December 2023 has since teetered within a five-cent range of mostly 79 to 84 cents over the past five months.
• The first half of the month saw a narrow range of 80 to 85 cents for NY futures, but the second half was bearish with a range of 76.5 to 81 cents. USDA released the WASDE report, which was nearly neutral and did not cause any significant volatility.
Cotton prices surged higher going into the three-day weekend as the Easter holiday gave speculators reason to try the long side of the cotton market once again. In fact, all contracts out to March 2024 settled above 83 cents – a welcome relief not seen in recent weeks.
Gujcot Second Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishing happy and earning new financial year to all cotton friends.
• January-March quarter was volatile in all futures. Huge ups and downs were noticed during this period. Despite huge ups and downs range is very narrow. NY March was in 80.25 to 87.00 range while NY May moved in slightly bigger range of 76.54 to 88.02.
Indian Farmers Might Be Holding Their Cotton but Global Production Remains Stable
In this edition of Cotton This Month, we will examine the current situation with delayed cotton arrivals in India and how this may affect the global balance sheets in the 2022/23 season.
All cotton planted area for 2023 is estimated at 11.3 million acres, down 18 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 11.1 million acres, down 18 percent from 2022. American Pima area is estimated at 154,000 acres, down 16 percent from 2022.
COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower mill use and higher ending stocks relative to last month, while production and exports are unchanged. The mill use forecast is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.1 million on recent lower rates of monthly utilization. The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 83 cents per pound, unchanged from January.
Cotton set for best week in over 2 – months on strong export sales data
ICE cotton futures rose 3% on Friday and were headed for their best week in more than two months, supported by strong U.S. export numbers and on hopes of an uptick in demand from top consumer China.
COTTON: This month’s U.S. 2022/23 cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks, no change in U.S. mill use, and lower exports. Production is 438,000 bales higher, at 14.7 million, with yield at a record 947 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from the December estimate. Exports are forecast 250,000 bales lower, at 12.0 million, with both projected world trade and the U.S. share slightly lower this month. Ending stocks are up 700,000 bales to 4.2 million, equal to 30 percent of projected use.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishes happy, healthy and earning new year 2023 to all our friends.
• Year 2022 taught us many lessons. We witnessed extremely high rates. NY cotton future near 158 cents per lb. and Indian physical cotton rate crossed Rs one lakh per candy. Some sweet and some bitter memories of year 2022. first quarter of the Indian new cotton season and second quarter of US new cotton season was dominated by bears.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks but lower mill use and exports. Production is 211,000 bales higher—at 14.2 million bales—mainly due to higher yields in the Delta and Southeast. Mill use is lowered 100,000 bales reflecting reduced spinning levels to date and weaker expectations for future demand. A reduction in expected world demand and trade results in a 250,000-bale decrease for U.S. cotton exports, down to 12.25 million.
• November month started with sharp uptrend during the first week. NY Future closed limit up for the first four days in this month and jumped to 87 cents from 72 cents in just one week. There after remained highly volatility during the month.
The lack of demand is clearly a problem at the moment and as such the WASDE doesn’t reflect the right set of numbers in its balance sheet. While the supply side is now more or less known, the demand side is overstated by several million bales and will have to be adjusted lower over the coming months, which will have a bearish impact.
• October was month of continuous down trend. NY December future lost about 1300 points during the month. USDA WASDE was bearish. USDA reduced world consumption by 3 million bales so world ending stock was also up by 3 million bales. Recession fear in Europe and America has created downward sentiment.
• US Export sales was poor also some cancellation from China reason for downtrend. But US is well committed to reach USDA export target.
Cotton season 2021/22 was a very challenging one. Cotton market opened at its historically high level and climbed up to create a new historical high of Rs.100,000 plus per candy. Hence it proved that is very difficult for even experts to predict top and bottom of the cotton market. Market finds its own level.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2021-22
• Up trend in cotton prices during first quarter of new season has continued with cotton prices touching life time new high in Indian cotton. While in U.S. It is the second highest rate after 2011.
• Indian Mills earned well during first quarter with old crop CCI stock till October and new arrivals.
Uncertainty and panic over the OMICRON variant caused the cotton market, along with many other commodities, to drop significantly in price over the past 2 weeks.
Production, Consumption and Trade are Expected to Increase in 2021/22
For the current season, the global production estimate for 2020/21 has been reduced to 24.3 million tonnes this month with smaller crop estimates expected for India, Brazil, and the United States. For India, the latest meeting of the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) reported production for 2020/21 at 6.12 million tonnes. With the country under crisis from a second wave of COVID-19, mill-use has been revised down to 5.15 million tonnes.
Procurement operations of seed cotton (Kapas) under MSP are going on smoothly in the States of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka. Till 23.03.2021 a quantity of 91,86,803 cotton bales valuing Rs.26,719.51 Crore has been procured benefitting 18,86,498 farmers.
All international benchmark prices increased over the past month.
The NY December futures contract climbed from 67 to as high as 72 cents/lb near the end of October. More recently, prices eased back to 70 cents/lb. Cotlook’s A Index rose from 73 to 76 cents/lb over the past month.
Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 17 August 2020)
Limited Cotton Recovery within Pandemic: Production and Stock Levels High, Slow Consumption Growth
Even as the most stringent containment measures begin to be lifted, the opportunity for economic recovery may not relieve current market uncertainty. Countries vary in their ability to flatten the contagion curve and the fiscal space to mitigate the pandemic associated recession.
Movement in benchmark prices was mixed over the past month.
The NY December futures contract moved lower (to below 60 cents/lb in late July) and then higher (near 65 cents/lb in early August) over the past month. Current values (63 cents/lb) are nearly even with those from one month ago.
A cyclonic circulation is over East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining area. Another cyclonic circulation is over Central Pakistan. A trough is extending from central Pakistan to Bangladesh across Rajasthan, South Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal in lower levels. A cyclonic circulation is over central parts of Assam. A cyclonic circulation is over south Konkan. A shear zone is extending from this cyclonic circulation to Chhattisgarh across North Interior Karnataka and Telangana.
U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
Macroeconomic Overview: The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019. Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%. For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.
Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:
Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency
Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%
we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.
In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.
Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
