COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER EARLY WEEK REBOUND
Louis W. Rose IV and Barry B. Bean
The May contract gave up 35 points on the week, finishing at 77.83. The market finished limit -down on Friday, and the Mar – May spread strengthened to (61). Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct. May is little changed to start the new week.
Market Movement from 13th Mar 2023 to 18th Mar 2023.
• Cotton prices continued their downward trend, with NY May closing at 77.83 on 17-March with weekly loss of 0.35 cents - a reflection of ongoing market volatility.
• Cotton prices experienced a volatile week, with significant price swings influenced by global banking system concerns and a series of economic data releases. On Monday, cotton prices closed sharply higher to limit up, in contrast to Friday's bearish trade, due to recovering Dow, weak U.S. dollar, and cash cotton liquidation.
• Turmoil in Bank Sector Put Pressure on Major Indexes • Strong Export Sales and Shipments Reported for Week Ending March 9 • Drought Conditions Unchanged Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
Cotton futures had a volatile week, closely following the path of outside markets, the banking sector in particular. A hot jobs report on Friday weighed on the market, sending cotton limit down going into the weekend and having the lowest close since November.
The seemingly inevitable occurred this past week as cotton prices fell below 80 cents for the first time since November 2, 2022. For over four months support at this level held firm amid mounting negative influences. Last week proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back as the market was bombarded by a host of discouraging data.
The May contract crashed last week, giving up 599 points to finish at 78.18, well below the lower end of the long-term trading range. The market finished limit -down on Friday, and the Mar – May spread weakened to (76). Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be incorrect. However, we recommended no trading bias on the week due to the release of the Mar WASDE report.
Market Movement from 06th Mar 2023 to 11th Mar 2023.
• Cotton prices experienced a sharp decline in the last week, with NY May futures dropping from 84.17 on 3rd March to 78.18 on 10th March, resulting in a significant week-on-week loss of 5.99 cents.
Quoting the famous LSU alumnus: “It’s the economy stupid.”
The writing was on the wall. The Chinese market was down sharply, the FED was bearish the economy, USDA was bearish cotton, and CFTC on-call report was bearish. Those that missed the market blamed the FED instead of the mirror. I have blamed the FED before, USDA too, and all the other acronyms. The FED is only attempting to fix the disaster created by Congressional spending. Blame should go to the other acronyms, I, ME, and YOU.
• Major Indexes had Wobbly Week • Export Sales Weaker for the Week Ending March 2 • WASDE Left U.S. Side of Balance Sheet Unchanged • Drought Conditions Prevail Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
Coming into the week there was hope of a follow-through on the previous week’s strong finish. Failing to do so, despite some mid-week price action, it traded all but unchanged. May futures did hit a high of 86.25 before closing at 84.17, down 73 points. In tow, new crop futures settled at 84.26 down only six points. Renewed grower selling, disappointing export sales, and beleaguered economic news stifled any chance of the market moving higher.
COTTON: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are unchanged relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received by producers is also unchanged at 83 cents per pound.
The global 2022/23 cotton supply and demand forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade, and higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are almost 900,000 bales higher as historical consumption estimates for China and Uzbekistan are updated to align with data from official and other sources.
COTTON MARKET HIGHER AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WASDE RELEASE
Mar 06, 2023
The May contract gave back 73 points on the week, and 292 points for the month finishing at 84.17, with the Mar – May spread weakening to (62). Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be incorrect. However, we recommended no trading bias on the week. The market has commenced WASDE week higher.
Market Movement from 27th Feb 2023 to 04th Mar 2023.
• The cotton market was mostly lower this week, with May future finishing down 0.73 cents. The market was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and higher Dow Jones, hopes of improved foreign demand, and squaring and balancing by certain managed-money funds. A strong economic report from China also boosted the market. Thursday's export sales were decent, while Friday saw the cotton market showing resilience and finishing higher.
• Outside Markets Finished February in the Red • Export Sales Report Showed Solid Sales • Drought Continues to Plague Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
The past week has proven to be another week of choppy trading with cotton prices trading within the ever-present range of low to mid-80s. Despite hawkish macroeconomic data on Friday, cotton prices rallied going into the weekend, having strong export sales to thank for the boost.
Cotton trading proved to be dull during the week as demand remained exceedingly difficult to come by. Mills complained loudly of poor margins and backed off making final purchases. However, inquiries were brisk on several nights. Yet, the recently established near term price resistance at 85 cents capped any attempted to rally. All contracts settled the week under that resistance point, except the expiring March which had only seven open contracts going into Friday’s trading.
For most of last week, watching cotton trade was akin to watching paint dry. That was until Friday when strong fundamentals prodded bullish traders into action. Posting triple-digit gains, May futures closed at 84.90 while new crop futures trailed along settling at 84.32. This marked the fourth consecutive day of higher closes, something not seen in two months. Though still in a tight trading range, it has moved off the bottom where it was nervously near falling below long-standing support.
The cotton market attempted to demonstrate a bit of life at week’s end as prices rallied 200-300 points to end the week. Yet, settlement prices were still below 85 cents, ranging from 84.90 in the old crop May contract to 84.32 in the new crop December contract. Thus, the Board remained flat, suggesting the market views the value of cotton today versus the value of cotton in December to be essentially equal.
Market Movement from 20th Feb 2023 to 25th Feb 2023.
• This week marked the beginning of the delivery period for NY March cotton contract, with the next future being NY May. This four day week was positive for May future with all four days closed in green. Especially last day with fantastic export sales numbers NY May closed with weekly gain of 340 points.
• Outside Markets Wavered from Economic News • Export Sales Report Showed Marketing Year High • USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Initial Forecast Showed 10.90 million Planted Acres
February 21, 2023 By Jeff Thompson, Autauga Quality Cotton
Last week saw cotton prices suffer their worst decline since October 24, 2022. Giving up four cents to settle Friday at 81.50, May futures is very near falling through its long-standing support. For seventy-one consecutive trading sessions, it has only closed below 80 cents four times the last of which was early December, 2022. Monday’s market holiday is much needed as hopefully cooler heads will prevail when trading resumes.
It was bound to happen. So says economics, the first course. Once it was Guns or Butter. Today it is Congressional Mandated Gifts versus Guns and Butter. Past drunken spending and giveaways by Congress have caught up with the U.S.
• Outside Markets Pressured from Economic News • Export Sales Report Showed Solid Sales • NCC Survey Reported Producers Intend to Plant 11.4 Million Acres
The cotton market had a choppy week, trading within a tight range before falling to the lower end of prices that have been present the past few months. Although wide trading ranges were present day-to-day, cotton futures settled relatively unchanged until Wednesday.
Market Movement from 13th Feb 2023 to 18th Feb 2023.
• The cotton market fell sharply during this week due to rising fears of a recession, weak demand, and higher interest rates. Stronger U.S. dollar also contributed to the bearish sentiment.
• Cotton prices in New York dropped significantly this week, with the March contract settling at 85.27 on February 10th and 80.25 on February 17th with weekly decline of 5.02 cents. The March contract is due to enter delivery period next week.
Unforeseen events, often called Black Swans, can be a market’s worst nightmare. Such was the case last week when news broke of a devastating earthquake in the country of Turkey. The heaviest destruction centered around an area highly involved in cotton commerce. Thus, fearing an impact on world trade, the market reacted as one might expect, selling off over 200 points.
Market Movement from 06th Feb 2023 to 11th Feb 2023.
• NY March opened this week with big loss but covered very next day. WASDE was bearish to neutral, bullish numbers of US export sales but week ended flat near to unchanged with minor loss of 16 points.
• USDA February WASDE reduced world carryover by 8,50,000 bales with reduction in production by 1.03 million bales and reduction in consumption by 1,90,000 bales. Report looks almost neutral.
Cotton prices weathered USDA’s bearish February world supply demand report, settling the week at 85.27 cents, basis March – off 16 points on the week. December settled at 84.86 cents, off 29 points on the week. Thus, the board was flat with all contract months within some 100 points of each other. Trading volume was very heavy, but a large majority was spread treading.
• Outside Markets Had a Mixed Week • Export Sales Report Showed Highest Level of Sales for Marketing Year • WASDE Held Few Surprises
The past week was a busy week in the cotton market, with many noteworthy fundamental factors taking place. Futures went into the weekend pressured from a strong jobs report. The downward pressure, paired with geopolitical issues, continued to start the week pushing cotton futures lower for the second day.
COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower mill use and higher ending stocks relative to last month, while production and exports are unchanged. The mill use forecast is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.1 million on recent lower rates of monthly utilization. The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 83 cents per pound, unchanged from January.
Having grown accustomed to huge daily price swings it was heartening to see cotton trade in a more orderly fashion last week. Though March futures did give up 146 points it traded within a narrow range of 290 points. A high of 87.40 was all it could muster before closing Friday at 85.43. New crop futures traded in a similar range of 262 points losing only half a cent before closing the week at 85.15.
Market Movement from 30th Jan 2023 to 04th Feb 2023.
• NY March traded all week ups and down all alternate day but in small range of 85 to 87 cent. Better export sales support the price but ultimately close in red. NY March close with loss of 146 points W/W.
• Export sales was decent 1,70,000 bales for week. Shipment also improve to 2,20,000 bales.
Cotton’s Great Expectations and Its Sobering Reality February 03, 2023
Cotton’s week was filled with expectations of great sales to China, a breakout to higher prices, and the industry patting itself on the back as demand shot higher. The reality: Cotton prices moved lower on very average export sales and shipments, while economic reports point to potentially higher inflation and a further reduction in consumer spending.
• Stock Market Strong in January • Export Sales Report Showed Encouraging Sales
March futures had a mixed week, remaining in the back-and-forth trading range that has been present the past few months. Overall, most commodities had a good start to the week, with cotton in particular finding support from China.
Upon watching last week’s market, we’re reminded of the words of baseball legend Yogi Berra when he said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.” March futures, in yet another valiant attempt to move above ninety cents, met strong resistance in the form of grower selling and failed to do so. However, unlike other unsuccessful tries, it found the strength to hold on and remain in the upper end of the trading range.
Market Movement from 23rd Jan 2023 to 28th Jan 2023.
• NY future traded in sideways this week. Better export sales has given some boost and intraday trade high on 88.88 but there was strong resistance on 88+. Farmers also fix some quantity on higher rate. Ultimately NY March settle near unchanged to last week just gain 19 points.
• U. S. Export Sales was decent with China back in the game also supported by Pakistan. Sales was 2,19,100 bales and shipment also better at 1,77,900 bales.
Sales Improving, but Cotton Prices Show Little Change
There was terrific excitement in the market all week. Some thought cotton futures were finally headed to 90 cents. Yet, remember, it’s all about demand.
Export sales are extremely limited to nil when prices are 86 cents and above. Sales are meager with prices between 83 to 85 cents. Sales are decent with prices at 82 cents and below. Period! A dip into the 70s is necessary to uncover great sales.
Outside Markets Finish the Week Strong Export Sales Report Showed Recovering Sales March futures traded sideways for the week after rallying from last week’s increased Export Sales Report. The rally was also helped with China coming back to the market. The rest of the trading week was fairly unchanged due to the Lunar New Year holiday in Southeast Asia and lack of fundamental drivers able to take hold.
COTTON MARKET TRADING WATER AFTER STRONG WEEKLY GAIN
Jan 24, 2023
The market (Mar) gained 4411 points on the week, finishing at 86.70, with the Mar – May spread tight at (36). The market is treading water, thus far, this week. For last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct. However, overall, we recommended a short bias.
Though mired in the same trading range now going on twelve weeks, a significant rebound off the bottom occurred last week. This will be the fifth time in the past three months the market has tried to breakout and move back above 90 cents. Previous attempts have failed as weakening fundamentals or poor economic conditions reigned it in. However, the current rally is being fed by some promising news concerning demand, not to mention it’s when a seasonal bump in prices is often seen.
Market Movement from 16th Jan 2023 to 21st Jan 2023.
• NY Cotton futures traded higher for three of the four trading sessions during the shortened trading week. NY March gained 441 points during the week. NY March gained 331 points after US export sales on Friday.
• US Export Sales was decent with 2,12,000 bales of new commitment and very limited cancellation. China booked 55,100 bales which was considered a positive news by the market. US export shipment also was encouraging with 1,89,400 bales shipped during the week.
Cotton set for best week in over 2 – months on strong export sales data
ICE cotton futures rose 3% on Friday and were headed for their best week in more than two months, supported by strong U.S. export numbers and on hopes of an uptick in demand from top consumer China.
Like a ticking time bomb, March futures have traded in a range between a high of eighty-nine cents and a low of eighty cents for ten consecutive weeks. More worrisome, recently it has settled into the lower end of the range eighty-five to eighty cents. Last week, coming off a five-cent rally there was hope of a continuation. This was soon squashed as traders bearishly viewed both the WASDE and Export Sales. As a result, March futures gave up 336 points on the week closing Friday at 82.29.
Market Movement from 09th Jan 2023 to 14th Jan 2023.
• ICE Cotton March closed at 82.50 cents with weekly loss of 339 points.
• USDA weekly cotton export sales remained disappointing for the week ending 5th January. For the current marketing year, net sales of 75,900 bales and weekly export of 1,56,800 bales was reported. Pakistan recaptured the 2022-23 lead buyer position of US cotton, replacing China.
USDA’s January supply demand report confirmed cotton’s demand woes, taking prices slightly lower on the week. Associated with the consumption decline, world trade in cotton also declined. It is 6.5-7.0 million bales below the 2020-21 marketing year.
• OUTSIDE MARKETS FARED BETTER WITH NEWS OF SLOWING INFLATION • EXPORT SALES IMPROVED BUT STILL DISAPPOINTING • U.S. PRODUCTION INCREASED TO 14.68 MILLION BALES
COTTON: This month’s U.S. 2022/23 cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks, no change in U.S. mill use, and lower exports. Production is 438,000 bales higher, at 14.7 million, with yield at a record 947 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from the December estimate. Exports are forecast 250,000 bales lower, at 12.0 million, with both projected world trade and the U.S. share slightly lower this month. Ending stocks are up 700,000 bales to 4.2 million, equal to 30 percent of projected use.
As sounds of fireworks fade, the excitement of ringing in a New Year comes to an end. Evidently, someone forgot to tell the cotton market for last week’s trading brought fireworks of its on. Following an early week decline of nearly three cents, March futures rallied over five cents before closing Friday at 85.68. Oddly, this was done with little or no supportive economic data, nor any sign cotton consumption was improving.
Market Movement from 02nd Jan 2023 to 07th Jan 2023.
• ICE cotton was closed on Monday due to new year. Market activity was slow.
• In India cotton future trade on MCX Exchange closed from 1st January-23, due to pending SEBI permission for new cotton contract. But it is heard from the trade sources that MCX contract will open soon.
Cotton prices back peddled all week. Yet, before crossing the finish line they surged higher. The nearby March contract jumped 310 points and settled the week at 85.68 cents. The new crop December contracted ending the week at 82.63 cents, up 215 points on the day. The 81-82 cent price support, thought to be week, proved to be very resilient and provided a bounce above 85 cents.
Our apologies for the late publication. We are well behind schedule due to power and internet outages over the last two days as strong storms have moved across the Mid-south.
The market gave up 184, 124 and 2923 points on the week, month, and year, respectively. The market has commenced the abbreviated trading week off significantly Vs Friday’s settlement.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishes happy, healthy and earning new year 2023 to all our friends.
• Year 2022 taught us many lessons. We witnessed extremely high rates. NY cotton future near 158 cents per lb. and Indian physical cotton rate crossed Rs one lakh per candy. Some sweet and some bitter memories of year 2022. first quarter of the Indian new cotton season and second quarter of US new cotton season was dominated by bears.
Market Movement from 26th Dec 2022 to 31st Dec 2022.
• Wish for happy, healthy and prosperous new year 2023 to all our cotton friends.
• This week of holidays passed with low volume and low volatility. NY March played between 82.52 to 85.79 in a small range. Ultimately NY March closed with 184 points weekly loss.
The final 2022 trading week in New York was somewhat bearish. The market suffered its lowest volume week of the year, with March futures settled for the year at 83.27 cents. The new crop December contract settled some 250 points lower at 80.88 cents. Thus, the price spread between old crop and new crop continues to shrink.
It is great to be back even, as prices are just marginally higher for old crop. Yet, new crop gained on old crop as the December 2023 contract has now dug in its heels near the 81-cent level – three cents higher than the old 78 cent support price. As earlier suggested, the old crop/new crop price spread will continue to narrow and reach parity as early as March 2023.
Poor demand Remains the Anvil Hanging Over This Market
December 27, 2022 By Jeff Thompson, Autauga Quality Cotton
Excuse the delay in our Cotton Market Review but quite frankly we were hindered by the record freeze which came with Christmas. Even so, the Arctic blast did little to cool a resurging market as for the second consecutive week it posted a higher high. March futures settled Friday at 85.21 for a gain of 329 points despite experiencing a limit down trading day.
• OUTSIDE MARKETS HAD ANOTHER WEEK OF LOSSES • EXPORT SALES REPORT SHOWED NET REDUCTIONS
March futures rallied after struggling to find direction the past month, closing with gains four out of the five trading sessions this week. Cotton went into the weekend up slightly before rallying on Monday. The upward action on Monday had traders scratching their heads because of the bearish macroeconomic news we have been hearing recently.
Market Movement from 19th Dec 2022 to 24th Dec 2022.
• NY future closed in green 4 out of 5 sessions. On Thursday market closed limit down due to huge export sales cancellation by China. Despite Covid worry in China and bearish export sales market closed in green W/W. March NY gained 329 points during the week.
We’ve learned and experienced the evidence of how crop markets – especially cotton, it seems – can be impacted by “secondary” factors on the demand side. Factors that one may think have little or nothing to do with cotton but, in reality, can be thought of as a proxy of how things are going on the consumer and demand side – factors such as the value of the dollar, inflation, interest rates, the U.S. stock market, and COVID impacts here and abroad.
The Market Could Care Less About Anyone’s Cost of Production December 19, 2022
Cotton prices continued to consolidate for yet another week. Trading in a narrow four-cent range, March futures closed each day within 100 points of the previous day’s close. Despite some early fund selling, it managed to finish the week in the black by almost a penny settling at 81.92. Obviously, at some point prices will move beyond this range and it will be the managed funds/specs that will determine in which direction.
Market Movement from 12th Dec 2022 to 17th Dec 2022.
• NY March traded in narrow range from 79 to 82.50 cents this week. Despite disappointing US export sales NY March closed with gain of 97 points W/W.
• Due to huge cancelation of 48,000 bales net sales remained just 19,900 bales only and total shipment was 1,45,900. Total US export commitments just below 89 lakh bales out of that 35.62 lakh bales already shipped.
We’ve learned and experienced the evidence of how crop markets – especially cotton, it seems – can be impacted by “secondary” factors on the demand side. Factors that one may think have little or nothing to do with cotton but, in reality, can be thought of as a proxy of how things are going on the consumer and demand side – factors such as the value of the dollar, inflation, interest rates, the U.S. stock market, and COVID impacts here and abroad.
Stubbornly for weeks, eighty cent has provided firm support in a sideways trading market. With the issuance of two major reports, export sales and the December WASDE, there was fear if either were bearish this support would be tested. Coming as no surprise, both were negative, the latter extremely so. All the same, to the amazement of many eighty-cent held firm with March futures closing the week at 80.95.
ICE Mar cotton gave up 225 points on the week, finishing at 80.95, with the Dec – Mar inversion contracting to only 5 points. Last weekend our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous weekly settlement, which turned out to be incorrect, but we did not recommend trading any bias ahead of Friday’s WASDE release. Thus far,, the Mar contract is higher on the week.
Note:There will not be a newsletter next week.I have a scheduled battle with a heart surgeon who assures me it will be two weeks before I will write again.Higher cotton prices represent the best path to recovery.
*Market Movement from 05th Dec 2022 to 10th Dec 2022*
• NY March traded between 80 to 86.50 cents during this week. First two days of the week closed in green but lost all gain in remaining three days due to lower export sales and bearish WASDE. Ultimately NY March closed with loss of 225 points W/W.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks but lower mill use and exports. Production is 211,000 bales higher—at 14.2 million bales—mainly due to higher yields in the Delta and Southeast. Mill use is lowered 100,000 bales reflecting reduced spinning levels to date and weaker expectations for future demand. A reduction in expected world demand and trade results in a 250,000-bale decrease for U.S. cotton exports, down to 12.25 million.
• November month started with sharp uptrend during the first week. NY Future closed limit up for the first four days in this month and jumped to 87 cents from 72 cents in just one week. There after remained highly volatility during the month.
This hurts, I am an optimist, and I will be rewarded.Cotton fundamentals continue the struggle to find their rightful place in the determination and discovery of the price of cotton.The continued limit up and limit down trading action in the cotton market is unique. Cotton fundamentals, per se, are simply not being reflected in the market, or are they?
The lack of demand is clearly a problem at the moment and as such the WASDE doesn’t reflect the right set of numbers in its balance sheet. While the supply side is now more or less known, the demand side is overstated by several million bales and will have to be adjusted lower over the coming months, which will have a bearish impact.
Considering that the US dollar dropped and the stock market rallied, cotton underperformed today, which could be sign that this impressive two-week rally might be running out of steam.
• October was month of continuous down trend. NY December future lost about 1300 points during the month. USDA WASDE was bearish. USDA reduced world consumption by 3 million bales so world ending stock was also up by 3 million bales. Recession fear in Europe and America has created downward sentiment.
• US Export sales was poor also some cancellation from China reason for downtrend. But US is well committed to reach USDA export target.
Cotton season 2021/22 was a very challenging one. Cotton market opened at its historically high level and climbed up to create a new historical high of Rs.100,000 plus per candy. Hence it proved that is very difficult for even experts to predict top and bottom of the cotton market. Market finds its own level.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2021-22
• Up trend in cotton prices during first quarter of new season has continued with cotton prices touching life time new high in Indian cotton. While in U.S. It is the second highest rate after 2011.
• Indian Mills earned well during first quarter with old crop CCI stock till October and new arrivals.
Uncertainty and panic over the OMICRON variant caused the cotton market, along with many other commodities, to drop significantly in price over the past 2 weeks.
It’s not just cotton. All commodities and the US stock market as well, are reeling from news of a new virus strain. Should growers be concerned? Yes. Will prices recover? Likely, but when and how much. And will the market fall further before a recovery?
The See-Saw at 90-Plus Continues – What Lies Ahead?
September 16, 2021
The strong uptrend in prices seems to have leveled out. Prices (Dec futures) have been in a range of mostly 92 to 95 cents for the past month plus. Dec closed at almost 95 cents back on August 17 but followed by at a close at 92.3 cents on September 1.
Last week ended at 93.5 cents—down 52 points for the week. So far this week (through today, September 15), Dec is down another 13 points to 93.37 cents.
Strong Prices Continue – So Far with Few Hiccups Aug 27, 2021
Most of the time, but not always, prices tend to trend down into the harvest months. It’s called seasonality and for that reason, farmers like to price some portion of their crop prior to harvest. How much varies from farmer to farmer and depends on how much risk he/she is willing to take on an unknown future.
This continues to be shaping up as one of those not-very-often years where farmers stand to enjoy both a good crop and at a good price.
A positive spin on things first. This appears to be shaping up as one of those rare and blessed years where most producers will enjoy both a good crop and a good price. It doesn’t happen often. Prices (new crop Dec futures) have moved to the 87 to 88 cents area 4 times since the beginning of 2021. This most recent move has now carried us to new highs at better than 90 cents.
Prices continue to show strength. New crop December futures closed today at 88.16 cents—the highest in a month and topping 88 cents for the third time near the contract high.
Cotton’s path seems on more solid footing in recent weeks. Given the present fundamentals, the market has clearly established a current objective top at near 90 cents. It looks like there’s currently plenty of support at 84.
Production, Consumption and Trade are Expected to Increase in 2021/22
For the current season, the global production estimate for 2020/21 has been reduced to 24.3 million tonnes this month with smaller crop estimates expected for India, Brazil, and the United States. For India, the latest meeting of the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) reported production for 2020/21 at 6.12 million tonnes. With the country under crisis from a second wave of COVID-19, mill-use has been revised down to 5.15 million tonnes.
Procurement operations of seed cotton (Kapas) under MSP are going on smoothly in the States of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka. Till 23.03.2021 a quantity of 91,86,803 cotton bales valuing Rs.26,719.51 Crore has been procured benefitting 18,86,498 farmers.
All international benchmark prices increased over the past month.
The NY December futures contract climbed from 67 to as high as 72 cents/lb near the end of October. More recently, prices eased back to 70 cents/lb. Cotlook’s A Index rose from 73 to 76 cents/lb over the past month.
Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 17 August 2020)
Limited Cotton Recovery within Pandemic: Production and Stock Levels High, Slow Consumption Growth
Even as the most stringent containment measures begin to be lifted, the opportunity for economic recovery may not relieve current market uncertainty. Countries vary in their ability to flatten the contagion curve and the fiscal space to mitigate the pandemic associated recession.
Movement in benchmark prices was mixed over the past month.
The NY December futures contract moved lower (to below 60 cents/lb in late July) and then higher (near 65 cents/lb in early August) over the past month. Current values (63 cents/lb) are nearly even with those from one month ago.
A cyclonic circulation is over East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining area. Another cyclonic circulation is over Central Pakistan. A trough is extending from central Pakistan to Bangladesh across Rajasthan, South Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal in lower levels. A cyclonic circulation is over central parts of Assam. A cyclonic circulation is over south Konkan. A shear zone is extending from this cyclonic circulation to Chhattisgarh across North Interior Karnataka and Telangana.
U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
Macroeconomic Overview: The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019. Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%. For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.
Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:
Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency
Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%
we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.
In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.
Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
