News & Reports
Jernigan Global Weekly 30-Nov-2020
  • 1. SPINNERS MAINTAIN BARE COTTON INVENTORIES IN FACE OF UNCERTAIN DEMAND

    2. BRAZIL DRYNESS A SERIOUS CONCERN AS MATO GROSSO MOISTURE DEFICIT INCREASES

    3. XINJIANG TEXTILE AND APPAREL INDUSTRY EXPANDS – EXPORTS SOAR

    4. AUSTRALIAN 2021 CROP FINDS SUPPORT AS QUALITY FEARS EXPAND

    5. INDIAN ARRIVALS SURGE AS PRICES IGNITE GROWER SELLING
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES HOLIDAY WEEK NEAR UNCHANGED AMID VOLATILE TRADING ACTION

    November 30, 2020

    The ICE Mar cotton contract picked up 28 points for the week ending Nov 27, finishing at 73.24 as the Mar – May switch strengthened slightly to (82). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 23rd Nov 2020 to 28th Nov 2020

    • On Monday market started this week with bullish trend with news of success of more COVID-19 vaccine but after that market remained stable during the week. Before Thanksgiving holiday market saw huge volatility but on Friday ICE March future was able to close the week with 28 points weekly gain.

    • U.S. Export Sales was bullish with lower prices Vietnam (169,500 bales) and Bangladesh (89,400 bales) were major buyers.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 27, 2020

    RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADING VOLUME IN HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK

    • Continuing Surge of COVID-19 Infections
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average Made a New All-Time High
    • Demand Strong in Export Sales Report
    • Texas Harvest Pace Ahead of 5-Year Average
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 19-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 3,54,600
    Upland Shipments 1,83,000
    Net Pima Sales 26,900
    Pima Shipments 21,700
    TOTAL SALES 3,81,500

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 38,500
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 38,500
Exchange Stock Position As on 24-Nov-2020
  • MCX Cotton

    Total Utilized Capacity =39,150 Bales
    Eligible for Exchange Delivery = 23,775
    Quantity in Process = 13,400
    Rejected Stocks = 1,975 Bales
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET SURGES ON VACCINE HOPES

    November 23, 2020

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 256 points for the week ending Nov 20, finishing at 72.96 as the Mar – May switch strengthened to (86), which is shy of full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market Movements Under The Direction Of News Events

    November 22, 2020

    Both December and March futures opened and closed last week on a positive note. Triple-digit gains on Monday were in response to another promising Covid vaccine trial, while Friday’s similar advance was fueled by a host of favorable technical indicators.

    For the week, December rallied almost 2.5 cents. March, now our focus, also picked up 2.5 cents to close at 72.96.
Jernigan Global Weekly 23-Nov-2020
  • 1. CHINA’S RETAIL APPAREL SALES OUTPACE THE REST OF THE WORLD

    2. HOW SECURE IS YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN? UNREST EXPANDS IN ETHIOPIA, VIRUS INFECTION OF MALAYSIA PPE FACTORIES

    3. US POLICY CONCERNS WILL IMPACT US COTTON ACREAGE IN 2021/2022

    4. AUSTRALIAN CFR BASIS UNDERVALUED AS CHINA ISSUES NEW THREATS

    5. WORRIES EXPAND OVER 2021 BRAZIL COTTON CROP AS DRYNESS DISRUPTS SOYBEAN SEASON
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 16th Nov 2020 to 21st Nov 2020

    • NY December future is now on notice day so most of the trade rolled over to
    March. NY March is now lead month. Spread was attractive so roll over was easy. NY December gained 242 points while March gained 256 points during the week. This Bullish trend was due to some positive news of corona vaccine. Also, technically market was able to stay above trend line.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 20, 2020

    *MARCH FUTURES SETTLE UP FOR WEEK, MORE COVID VACCINE NEWS

    • More COVID-19 Vaccine Good News
    • Vietnam Largest U.S. Export Buyer
    • Cotton Harvest Pace Ahead of Last Year
Shurley on Cotton
  • Market Flat, Awaits Next Event

    November 20, 2020

    Pricing opportunities have now moved to basis the March futures. So, you may notice the futures look to be a bit higher. That’s due to the “spread” between Dec and March. At present, March is about 2.3 cents higher than expiring December.

    Also, the basis has improved somewhat from where we were about a month ago. According to USDA-AMS, the basis quoted is currently -225 points for 31-3/34 and even the March futures for 31-3/35. This is about 50 points better than a month ago.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Market Is Fighting The Upward Trend

    November 20, 2020

    Cotton survived Friday the 13th trading and spent most of the week in the 69-70 cent trading range in very static trading, almost fearful to trade in any direction.

    Yet, the market reversed itself going into the weekly close and prices climbed above 71 cents, only to close just below that mark. The idea of a somewhat friendlier Chinese market sat heavy over the ICE contract all day and was the primary reason for the New York contract to instantly move higher at the close.
Plexus Market Comments 19 Nov
  • So where do we go from here?

    The December liquidation failed to move the market despite the certified stock growing to 123k bales. With just 8.4k contracts remaining open before today’s session, December is now for all practical purposes history and whatever happens in the notice period is at best of some psychological value.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 12-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,31,400
    Upland Shipments 2,77,300
    Net Pima Sales 4,600
    Pima Shipments 19,100
    TOTAL SALES 1,36,000

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 9th Nov 2020 to 14th Nov 2020

    • Monday afternoon USDA issued its crop progress report and Tuesday USDA update its supply-demand estimates and also in these added Pfizer Inc said that its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective. So, this week market started with uptrend move on Monday but could not hold the gain during the week.

    • NY Dec future contract gained 138 points on Monday and after that continuously lost. At the end of the week NY Dec future lost 16 points W/W.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 13, 2020

    WEEKLY REPORTS SHOCK TRADERS, COVID-19 VACCINE GOOD NEWS

    • Pfizer-BioNTech COVID Vaccine to be 90% Effective
    • Increase in U.S. Export Sales
    • USDA Cotton Production Estimate Unexpectedly Large
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Playing With The Numbers (And It’s Not Fun)

    November 13, 2020

    Friday the 13th. Cotton is going to be a tough sell in 2021-22 and I desperately hate to write that, much less even think it. Again, I find myself wishing and hoping my analysis will be on the wrong side of history.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 05-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,36,800
    Upland Shipments 2,93,000
    Net Pima Sales 20,400
    Pima Shipments 21,700
    TOTAL SALES 2,57,200

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 14,800
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 14,800
Plexus Market Comments 12 Nov
  • So where do we go from here?

    The roll period is behind us and tomorrow December options will expire. This has provided the market with a sea of liquidity and allowed traders to sort out their positions.

    Interestingly, while Dec open interest has dropped from 103k to 55k over the last five sessions (not including what happened today), overall open interest has only lost about 6k so far and was still at 237k as of this morning.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter November-2020
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    All international benchmark prices increased over the past month.

    The NY December futures contract climbed from 67 to as high as 72 cents/lb near the end of October.  More recently, prices eased back to 70 cents/lb.
    Cotlook’s A Index rose from 73 to 76 cents/lb over the past month.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Production Increase Surprises Market

    November 11, 2020

    Tuesday’s USDA crop production and supply/demand estimates were not what was expected. The market moved down for the day but, frankly, we can take relief that price did not decline even more than it did. We’ll have to wait and see what “follow through” action takes place Wednesday.
USDA - WASDE
  • November-2020

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates are virtually unchanged from October. The U.S. production forecast is marginally higher, at 17.1 million bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks remain at 7.2 million bales and, at 42 percent of use, would be the highest stocks-to-use ratio since 2007/08.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Pent Up Demand Possible?

    November 9, 2020

    After the previous week’s significant selloff, we were hoping last week’s activity would confirm this was only a needed correction in an overbought market. Early on, this appeared to be the case, with the market retracing nearly 50% of those losses. That was quite an accomplishment, considering all the outside noise, including a hotly contested presidential election, a rise in Covid cases and a host of other uncertainties.
Jernigan Global Weekly 09-Nov-2020
  • 1. CONCERNS OVER APPAREL DEMAND IN EUROPE AND US PROVIDE CHALLENGES FOR ADVANCING COTTON PRICES

    2. BRAZILIAN BASIS STRENGTH CHANGES COTTON TRADE DYNAMICS

    3. BEIJING CONTINUES IN ITS ATTEMPT TO MAKE AUSTRALIA SUBMIT TO ITS WILL

    4. CHINA SUPPLY OF HIGH GRADE, LONGER STAPLE STOCKS HEADED FOR TIGHTNESS

    5. CIVIL WAR BREAKS OUT IN NEW SOURCING HOTSPOT OF ETHIOPIA
Rose on Cotton
  • EARLY WEEK COTTON MARKET GAINS EVAPORATE ON WEAKNESS IN US EXPORT SALES, ELECTION RESULTS, FUND ROLLING

    November 07, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 30 points for the week ending Nov 6, finishing at 68.62 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (153), which is approaching full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 02nd Nov 2020 to 07th Nov 2020

    • NY futures gained gradually during the week but gave up all gains on Friday. Finally NY December lost 30 points during the week. Uncertainty of US election results, increasing Covid-19 cases and lockdown in Europe has put pressure on equity and commodity markets. NY December future is near to notice day so main funds roll over their position to March. Spread between December/March is attractive.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 6, 2020

    MARKET EFFECTED WHILE ELECTION RESULTS REMAIN UNKNOWN

    • Next U.S. President Still Unknown
    • Marketing Year First Quarter Exports at Highest Level Ever
    • WASDE and Crop Production Report Release Tuesday
Shurley on Cotton
  • Multiple Factors Contributing to Market Stability

    November 6, 2020

    After making a long upward run and recently peaking at over 72 cents—the highest price in 9 months (since January), the market (Dec futures) declined and tested support at 68. Prices thus far this week have gained back to the 70 cent area.

    After the peak at roughly 72, the often-voiced reasons for the decline or “correction” were “profit taking”, “technical considerations”, and jitters over the decline in the stock market.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • The Market Lingers Behind The 8 Ball

    November 6, 2020

    Cotton futures continued their second week of back-and-fill action as prices remained entrenched within the well-defined trading channel and holding within the narrow five-cent, 67.50-72.50 cent trading range.

    However, now that peak harvest has passed, the market adage, “Short crop have long tails,” continues to live within the trading ring. The trading range should hold as the market moves into next week’s (November 10) USDA world supply demand report.
Plexus Market Comments 05 Nov
  • So where do we go from here?

    The recent correction has alleviated ‘overbought’ conditions and the fact the we held above critical support will probably keep most speculators on board as we head into the roll period and it may even bring in some new buying.

    The trade finally got the price break it was hoping for, which allowed it to reduce its December exposure to a more manageable level. The upcoming roll period should provide the trade with the necessary liquidity to square away most of the remaining Dec positions.

U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 29-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,15,500
    Upland Shipments 2,70,000
    Net Pima Sales 16,900
    Pima Shipments 21,900
    TOTAL SALES 1,32,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 55,700
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 55,700
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Oct 2020
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Oct 2020

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
Thompson On Cotton
  • Managing Risk Is The Key, And We Have Plenty To Go Around

    November 1, 2020

    The ghosts and goblins of Halloween came early last week. In just a week’s time we experienced:

    • A hard freeze in the Southwest.
    • Another hurricane in the Southeast.
    • An uptick in Covid cases around the globe, and a stock market decline the likes of which not seen since last March.
    • Along with the same Presidential campaign noise we’ve been experiencing the past several months.
Jernigan Global Weekly 02-Nov-2020
  • 1. CHINA COTTON FIBER AND YARN IMPORTS CONTINUE TO EXPAND BOOSTING TRADE LEVELS

    2. TURKISH LIRA PLUNGES TO NEW RECORD LOW AMID EXPANDING POLICY ISSUES

    3. US URBAN UNREST A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR RETAIL APPAREL

    4. AUSTRALIAN RAINS BOOST CROP PROSPECTS: CFR BASIS STEADY

    5. CHINA ELS COTTON SUBSIDY INCREASES TO 175 CENTS TARGET PRICE
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET MOVES BACK BELOW 70.00; US ELECTIONS LOOM LARGE AS INVESTORS MOVE TO SIDELINES

    October 30, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 237 points for the week ending Oct 30, finishing at 68.92 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (86). Dec still managed a 313-point gain for Oct. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 26th Oct 2020 to 31th Oct 2020

    • The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 237 points for the week ending Oct 30, finishing at 68.92 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (86). After touching high of 72.63 market sharply turned downside. ICE Dec contract lost 237 point during the week but still managed 313 points monthly gain for Oct.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 30, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES RALLY, WEATHER REMAINS A CENTRAL CONCERN

    • December Futures Extend Previous Week’s Winning Streak
    • Stimulus Talks Rattle Investors
    • U.S. Export Sales and Shipments on Target to Hit USDA 2020/21 Forecast
    • Cotton Belt Harvest Behind Average Five-Year Pace
Shurley on Cotton
  • Much Hinges On Final Crop Size

    October 30, 2020

    The trend to even higher prices may not be over, but it has hit a snag — as expected.

    After closing at over 72 cents earlier on Monday this week, December futures has now declined 3 consecutive days. Dec closed below 70 cents today for the first time since October 16—in almost 2 weeks.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • At This Point, A “70-Cent Guy”

    October 30, 2020

    The Trick-or-Treaters came calling on the cotton market this week and – as advertised all last week – ended the phenomenal two-week rally in cotton prices. While all the bullish momentum has not been lost, cotton prices were due for the gut check that began on Wednesday and concluded on Friday.

    Prices hit a low of 69.08 cents, basis December, as fundamental and phycological factors forged the decline. Friday saw the market sink to a low of 68.37, in line with expectations.
Plexus Market Comments 29 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    The next two weeks will likely be quite volatile, because we are dealing with the US elections, the index fund roll, December fixations, options expiration and another WASDE report. All that with spec longs and trade shorts sitting on their largest positions in two years.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 22-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,88,700
    Upland Shipments 2,28,800
    Net Pima Sales 32,700
    Pima Shipments 15,900
    TOTAL SALES 3,21,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 900
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market Drivers – More Bullish Than Bearish

    October 26, 2020

    In the quest to return to its pre-Covid high, the market took another giant, although worrisome, step last week.

    Giant in that the continuing rally garnering another couple cents, trading over 72 cents at one point.
Jernigan Global Weekly 26-Oct-2020
  • 1. COLLAPSE OF NEW YORK CITY AT HEART OF US RETAIL APPAREL SALES WEAKNESS

    2. CHINA’S DOMESTIC COTTON PRICES FIND RESISTANCE AT 15,000 RMB/TON

    3. INDIAN SHANKAR-6 EXGIN PRICE HITS 70 CENTS FOR FIRST TIME IN 2020/2021

    4. HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM MOVES INTO AUSTRALIAN COTTON BELT

    5. US HARVEST ADVANCES; FOB BASIS FIRMS
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES TO RALLY, ANOTHER STORM BREWING IN THE GULF

    October 24, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 137 points for the week ending Oct 23 (547 over the last three weeks), finishing at 71.29 as the Dec – Mar switch strengthened to only (58). Still, Dec finished 84 points off the intraweek high of 72.13. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 19th Oct 2020 to 24th Oct 2020

    • ICE cotton futures were down by 64 to 75 points on Friday, but ICE Dec contract gained 137 points during the week. From Friday to Friday, the Dec to March carry fell 9% to 0.58 cents (0.08%). With some profit taking on Friday market gave up some gain but still maintained weekly green closing. This was consecutive third week of upswing. Bull run was started and dominated by China’s ZCE futures.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 23, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES RALLY, WEATHER REMAINS A CENTRAL CONCERN

    • December Futures Extend Previous Week’s Winning Streak
    • Stimulus Talks Rattle Investors
    • U.S. Export Sales and Shipments on Target to Hit USDA 2020/21 Forecast
    • Cotton Belt Harvest Behind Average Five-Year Pace
Shurley on Cotton
  • Roller Coaster Recovery Continues

    October 23, 2020

    Cotton prices (nearby December futures) have now trekked into territory that no one thought possible a few months ago. Not now, not this soon.

    December futures now approaches 72 cents and has thus far gained 2.02 cents for the week, 6.15 cents for the month of October, and 21.53 cents since the horrible low back on April 1. Talk is now already circulating of 80 cents.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Can The Bull Maintain His Pace?

    October 23, 2020

    Cotton prices continue to ride the uptrend and have now surpassed the initial price goal I earlier established. Yet, the uptrend remains in play and prices are only in the middle of the current trading channel.
Jernigan Global Weekly 19-Oct-2020
  • 1. CHINA FIBER/TEXTILE MARKETS SURGE IN POST HOLIDAY PERIOD MOVING GLOBAL PRICES HIGHER

    2. 2020/2021 XINJIANG CROP HAS MAJOR QUALITY PROBLEM

    3. CHINESE COTTON YARN PRICES ADVANCED SHAPLY

    4. CHINA’S PRICE SURGE TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD OFFTAKE OF BONDED WAREHOUSE STOCKS & IMPORTED COTTON YARNS

    5. TURKEY INCREASES APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS IN SEPTEMBER
Plexus Market Comments 22 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    The bullish trend accelerated this week and the trade has its back to the wall. The trade net short position is probably at over 15.0 million bales by now and we wonder much longer it will be able to fight this trend.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 15-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,27,800
    Upland Shipments 1,94,100
    Net Pima Sales 29,600
    Pima Shipments 7,400
    TOTAL SALES 2,57,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 21,300
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 21,300
Thompson On Cotton
  • Potential For Mid-70s But Uncertainty Lingers
    October 19, 2020

    Like a restless bull trying to find a hole in the fence, the cotton market repeatedly challenged 70 cents in every trading session last week.

    Like a sturdy fence, each attempt was thwarted, most likely by harvest selling. But have faith, for those of us who’ve worked cattle for any length of time will attest that given enough lee way, a determined bull will most often win over.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET BREACHES 70.00 ON INCREASED BUSINESS PROSPECTS FROM CHINA, BUT US-CHINA TENSIONS INCREASING

    October 18, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 228 points for the week ending Oct 16 (410 over the fortnight), finishing at 69.92; the Dec – Mar switch strengthened to (64), well below full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Shurley on Cotton
  • A Correction Seems Likely As Prices Bump Up
    October 18, 2020

    Cotton is pushing toward 70 cents, presenting pricing and risk management opportunities for growers that I’m sure most of us never thought we would see for this crop. It’s decision time. If not priced already, this move certainly seems a good opportunity to get going or add to previous sales.

    December futures closed just short of 70 cents on Friday (69.92) —gaining 2.28 cents for the week and, so far, over 4 cents this month. Prices are now the highest in 8 months.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 12th Oct 2020 to 17th Oct 2020

    • This was Bull dominated week NY December gained 228 points during the week. Adverse weather in US and India, technical support to spec and steady pace of US export shipment are the main reasons of bull run.

    • U.S. Export Sales was poor but shipment was decent to support Bull sentiment.

    • ZCE China future gained over 1,000 RMB during week and Chinese buyers have supported whole world's cotton futures.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 16, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES REACH HIGHEST PRICE SINCE JANUARY

    • Continuing Jobless Claims Continue to Fall
    • Export Sales Report Showed Shipments Continue at Strong Pace
    • Texas Crop 36% Harvest
    • Crop Progress and Conditions Focus Going Forward
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Price Your Crop

    October 16, 2020

    My Thursday evening search turned up price ideas of 70 cents, 72 cents, 73 cents, 75 cents and – finally – 80 cents. Rightfully so, everyone should have an idea about cotton prices.

    The most frequent response was that “it’s over,” meaning the price rally has ended.  The current price rally has been persistent, establishing higher and higher lows dating back to April 2.
Plexus Market Comments 15 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    It is no longer just the futures market that is hot, as cash prices have been rallying due to pent-up demand lately. Whether this is just some temporary strength tied to the upcoming Christmas season or something longer-lasting remains to be seen.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 08-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 98,900
    Upland Shipments 1,92,600
    Net Pima Sales 17,800
    Pima Shipments 12,700
    TOTAL SALES 1,16,700

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 13,200
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 13,200
Shurley on Cotton
  • The Long March to 68 – Now What?

    October 12, 2020

    This week, cotton prices inched ever closer to the 68 cents area—breaking above the 65 to 67 cents range that prices have been in for the better part of last month. The move closer to 68 was made on expected crop damage from Hurricane Delta and anticipation that today’s USDA projections for October would show an already reduced US crop compared to the September numbers.
Thompson On Cotton
  • WASDE Pushes Market Out of 8-Month Trading Range

    October 12, 2020

    The market finally broke out of its trading range this week, reaching an eight-month high of 68.68 and closing up from its previous close of 67.49 at an all new trading level of 67.64.

    This week’s WASDE report initially dropped the market 70 points, showing lowered global stocks by 2.7 million bales. Global consumption was up two million bales while production was down 934,000 bales.
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES HIGHER ON WASDE WEEK, HURRICANE DELTA SLOWS HARVEST OPERATIONS

    October 11, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 182 points for the week ending Oct 9, finishing at 67.64; the Dec – Mar switch weakened modestly to (78). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct. However, we decided not to trade this bias ahead of the WASDE report’s release.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 05th Oct 2020 to 10th Oct 2020

    • This week was Bull dominated week. NY December gained 182 points during this week. Fear of damage due to Hurricane Delta and Weaker dollar were main reasons for the Bull run. Before WASDE NY December climbed to new high 68.68. Trade anticipated USDA to reduce U.S. crop to below 17 million bales but USDA almost maintained same crop as previous month which disappointed speculator. NY December closed at 67.64 after reaching new high.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Fundamentals Remain Weak, 70 Cents Unlikely

    October 9, 2020

    Love the cotton market, but remember the old trading adage, Short Crops Have Long Tails. USDA’s October supply demand report was a big yawner but did suggest lower world carryover. Thus, the market found the report friendly.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 9, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE UP 158 POINTS FOR THE WEEK

    • Export Sales Lower Than Previous Week
    • Hurricane Delta to Impact Cotton Belt
    • October Crop Production Report and WASDE Released Friday
    • Report Lowered U.S. Production 19,000 Bales
Plexus Market Comments 08 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    Tomorrow should make for a lively session, as we have Hurricane Delta's landfall and we get the latest WASDE numbers. Most traders expect a friendly reaction from these events.
USDA - WASDE
  • The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show marginally lower production compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 17.0 million bales. Domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks are unchanged. At 7.2 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 42 percent of use, compared with 41 percent in 2019/20. The 2020/21 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 61.0 cents per pound, 2 cents higher than last month and slightly above the final 2019/20 price of 59.6 cents.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 01-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,78,400
    Upland Shipments 1,42,300
    Net Pima Sales 21,700
    Pima Shipments 15,800
    TOTAL SALES 2,00,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 15,000
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 15,000
Thompson On Cotton
  • Faint Hints Of Demand

    October 5, 2020

    Writing this prior to Friday’s close, I’m thinking it shouldn’t matter much since trading has been sideways for weeks. However, we awoke with news that the President and First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19.

    Not surprisingly, this has shaken all markets from the financials to the commodities. At this early hour, cotton has already dropped 90 points. Hopefully, the market’s steadfast resilience in the face of uncertainty will continue.
Jernigan Global Weekly 05-Oct-2020
  • 1. XINJIANG TEXTILE AND APPPAREL PRODUCTION BASE EXPANDING BEYOND COTTON

    2. US EXPORT SALES SHOW SUCCESS OF US COTTON PROMOTION AND SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAMS

    3. XINJIANG WATER REQUIREMENTS MAY BE AT HEART OF CHINA/INDIA DISPUTE

    4. INDIA: SPOTLIGHT ON CCI AS NEW CROP PROCUREMENT BEGINS

    5. PAKISTAN MILLS ACTIVE BUYERS OF IMPORTED COTTON
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK NEAR UNCHANGED, BUMPER CROP IN CHINA

    October 03, 2020

    ICE Dec cotton gave up 13 points for the week ending Oct 2, finishing at 65.82; the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (81), which is still well short of full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct. The Dec contract gained 63 points for Sept, but the seasonal trend is negative for Oct.
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Sep 2020
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Sep 2020

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 28th Sep 2020 to 03rd Oct 2020

    • NY December close as near to un change W/W. It was cross 66 for some time and go below to 65 for some time but close whole week in very tight range between 65.26 to 65.92.

    • U.S. Export Sales was decent and now turkey was main buyer of us cotton.it will show positive sign.

    • Next week's WASDE will give new direction to market.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 2, 2020

    OPEN INTEREST HITS ANOTHER NEW HIGH SINCE FEBRUARY

    • Thursday’s Price Range Tightest in Six Weeks
    • U.S. Dollar Depreciated This Week
    • Demand for U.S. Cotton is Broadening
    • Traders Monitor Harvest Pace and WASDE Release Next Week
Cleveland On Cotton
  • “A Big Bunch Of Cotton”

    October 2, 2020

    The market did back-and-fill all week as it likely will until USDA’s November supply demand report provides more clarity with respect to market fundamentals.

    Yet, before the market can get to USDA’s November report, it must first decipher next week’s supply/demand report, due out on October 9.
Plexus Market Comments 01 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    Although some consuming markets have seen a decent recovery, most of cotton’s strength has no doubt come from spec and index fund buying. The trade hasn’t helped matters by building this large unfixed on-call position, from which it is now trying to escape. For that to happen we need to see sell-side liquidity, which has been lacking so far.

U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 24-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,33,800
    Upland Shipments 2,18,200
    Net Pima Sales 19,500
    Pima Shipments 10,800
    TOTAL SALES 2,53,300

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 20,600
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 20,600
Thompson On Cotton
  • What Will Determine Market Direction Now?

    September 28, 2020

    Following the market last week was much akin to watching paint dry. Though trading in wide ranges each day, it never failed to work its way back to nearly unchanged, gaining a mere 29 points on the week to close at 65.95.
Jernigan Global Weekly 28-Sep-2020
  • 1. US HIGH GRADE SUPPLIES TIGHTEN FOLLOWING RECORD RESERVE PURCHASES AND UNTIMELY RAINS ON NEW CROP

    2. ROAD TO RECOVERY 2020/2021 CHINESE COTTON DEMAND EXPANDING WITH ACTIVE XINJIANG & IMPORT INTEREST

    3. INDIA’S NEW CROP MOVEMENT BEGINS; WILL CCI EXPANDED BUYING MAINTAIN PRICES?

    4. FIRST XINJIANG AND NOW TIBET FORCED LABOR GANGS DOCUMENTED

    5. PAKISTAN TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORTS APPEAR TO BE STABILIZING
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS SEASONAL TREND TURNS BEARISH

    September 26, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract picked up 29 points for the week ending Sept 25, finishing at 65.95; the Dec – Mar switch tightened significantly at (71). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 21st Sep 2020 to 26th Sep 2020

    • NY December future moved in very tight range of 1.5 cent and daily close was below 1% up or down, relatively market remained stable. Big decline in equity market was also ignored by cotton market. Strong dollar, huge sell off in equity, disappointing export sales were the reasons for market to decline but still cotton market was able to close above psychological support of 65 cents.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Trade, Exports Fragile Amid Production Uncertainties

    September 25, 2020

    The 2020 US crop is projected at 17.06 million bales—the September estimate being revised down 1 million bales from the August estimate. That 17.06 million potential crop has, since the September numbers were determined, been impacted (for the good or bad is yet to be determined) by Hurricane Sally and Tropical Storm Beta. It is also still in question whether the September number fully captured the net effect of Hurricanes Marco and Laura.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 25, 2020

    TRADING VOLUME LOW THIS WEEK AS PRICES CONFINED TO TIGHT RANGE

    • Rough Week in Stock Market
    • Net New Sales for the Week Totaled 92,700 Upland Bales
    • Crop Progress Report Showed Modest Decline in Southeast Conditions
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Fewer Acres In 2021?

    September 25, 2020

    As expected, the market did back-and-fill all week, easing above 66 cents after attempting to move marginally below 65 cents. Generally, business was slow, i.e., reflecting a somewhat stale market.

    Chinese exports surfaced, but not in the numbers suggested by the commitment of traders report (COT). Additional sales to China do exist and will get reported, but the question remains will the volume push 400,000 bales and/or will the final number be closer to a million bales by the end December?
Plexus Market Comments 24 Sep
  • So where do we go from here?

    By being so bearish on the market – justifiably so if we look at the global balance sheet – mills have been holding off on fixations, which paradoxically has created a lot of support for the futures market. In other words, the trade is standing in its own way, making it very difficult for prices to move lower.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 17-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 92,700
    Upland Shipments 2,81,900
    Net Pima Sales 18,500
    Pima Shipments 12,900
    TOTAL SALES 1,11,200

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 50,600
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 50,600
Thompson On Cotton
  • A Faint Uptrend, Maybe to 70 Cents

    September 20, 2020

    Let me first extend our thoughts and prayers to all those impacted by Hurricane Sally. This intense storm wrecked the lives of many as it slammed into the Gulf Coast this past week, slowly making its way through the Southeast and dropping copious amounts of rain over half a million acres of cotton that was only weeks from harvest was in its path.
Jernigan Global Weekly 21-Sep-2020
  • 1. US AND CHINA’S RETAIL APPAREL MARKETS’ DIFFERENCES NARROW AS US WEAKNESS CONTINUES

    2. SHIPMENTS OF 2020 BRAZILIAN CROP INCREASING ALONG WITH NEW CFR BASIS PRESSURE

    3. US CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION ISSUES LIMITED WITHHOLD ORDERS ON XINJIANG COTTON TEXTILES

    4. US COTTON CROP SHRINKS FURTHER AS THE CHALLENGES OF 2020 NEVER END

    5. CHINA PURCHASES OF US GRAINS WERE AGAIN ROBUST LAST WEEK, ALONG WITH LARGE SALE OF US COTTON
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET POSTS WEEKLY GAINS BUT FALTERS POST RELEASE OF BLOCKBUSTER EXPORT DATA

    September 19, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 85 points for the week ending Sept 18 finishing at 65.66, the Dec – Mar switch tightened a bit at (92). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 18, 2020

    FUTURES PUT IN STRONG SHOWING THIS WEEK

    • Stocks Traded in Calm, Two-Sided Fashion
    • Export Sales Report Showed Impressive New Upland and Pima Sales
    • Hurricane Sally Hit Alabama-Florida Border Coast
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 14th Sep 2020 to 19th Sep 2020

    • Week started with all bullish news. Bullish WASDE, hurricane Sally, weaker dollar. All these all factors created Bullish sentiment and NY December touched new high of 66.93 on Tuesday.

    • Robust export sales on Thursday above 5 Lakh bales in which China bought above 4 Lakh bales. Despite good sales market closed in red and week closed with just 85 points weekly gain.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Hurricane Sally Apparently Not a Market Mover

    September 18, 2020

    I knew we were possibly in for disappointment price-wise when I read a pre-landfall news headline that said that the market was “mulling” Hurricane Sally. In other words, not sure of what the impacts, if any, might be.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • A Short-Term Opportunity Thanks To European Consumers?

    September 18, 2020

    After assessing limited damage resulting from Hurricane Sally, cotton prices eased slightly lower in Friday trading, settling the week at 65.66, basis December.

    Significant damage occurred only in south Alabama but did sweep across the entire state and into a portion of Georgia. However, the very significant Southwest Georgia crop was generally spared.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 10-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 5,19,600
    Upland Shipments 1,87,900
    Net Pima Sales 28,000
    Pima Shipments 16,500
    TOTAL SALES 5,47,600

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
Shurley on Cotton
  • Sept. Crop Numbers Should Help Prices, But…

    September 14, 2020

    Adjustments were made today that should be favorable for prices. USDA has now moved closer to what the “boots on the ground” have said along. This should help provide support for the market.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Demand On The Verge Of Recovery?

    September 14, 2020

    Like a prizefighter with a cast iron jaw, the cotton market has taken punch after punch in recent weeks but still have come off the ropes swinging. Since April, every 2- or 3-cent gain has been followed by a 1- or 1.5-cent decline.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • An Upward Turn In November?

    USDA rewarded my two-week-old price flip-flop with Friday’s release of its September world supply demand report. While both world and U.S. stocks were lowered, the reductions came from the supply side of the price equation.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET SETTLES EFFECTIVELY UNCHANGED FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK; SALLY CHURNING IN THE GULF

    September 14, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 18 points for the week ending Sept 11 finishing at 64.81; the Dec – Mar switch was effectively unchanged at (97). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct,
Jernigan Global Weekly 14-Sep-2020
  • 1. US COTTON FABRIC CAPACITY AT CRITICAL LEVELS - THE FUTURE OF US COTTON CONSUMPTION DEPENDS ON IT

    2. BRAZILIAN COTTON DOMINATES ALL NON-CHINESE MARKETS

    3. MEXICO US COTTON IMPORT PURCHASES ALREADY EXCEED TOTAL SEASON IMPORT ESTIMATES

    4. INDIA CCI OFFERING PRICES HOLD FIRM

    5. CHINA RESERVE PURCHASES OF US COTTON CONTINUE
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 11, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE UP AT END OF SHORTENED TRADING WEEK

    • Export Sales Report Continued Previous Months’ Pattern
    • USDA Cut U.S. Production Estimate in WASDE Report
    • Possible Effects of Recent Weather Front of Mind
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 07th Sep 2020 to 12th Sep 2020

    • NY Dec future remained volatility with upper side at 65+ cents and lower side at 63.50 cents, finally week ended almost unchanged.

    • WASDE was as expected. Lower US crop, consumption and export with no effect on ending stock which still is huge at 7.2 million bales.
Plexus Market Comments 10 Sep
  • So where do we go from here?

    The market is still devoid of any strong selling, as index funds continue to accumulate longs and the trade is probably going to transition to a net buyer of futures once the crops are in. This leaves only speculators as strong potential sellers.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 03-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,26,700
    Upland Shipments 2,30,500
    Net Pima Sales 17,400
    Pima Shipments 10,700
    TOTAL SALES 1,44,100

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 70,400
    Net Pima Sales 700
    TOTAL 71,100
USDA - WASDE
  • WASDE - Sept-2020

    The 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher beginning stocks relative to last month but lower production, mill use, exports, and ending stocks. Production is lowered 1.0 million bales to 17.1 million, with a lower projection for every region. Mill use is projected 200,000 bales lower this month, but compared with its revised 2019/20 level is still expected to rise 16 percent. Exports and ending stocks are 400,000 bales lower, reflecting reduced U.S. supply and stronger foreign competition.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Is The Market Tapped Out?

    September 8, 2020

    Cotton prices are once again looking vulnerable and on an uncertain path to who knows where. Dec futures closed down 97 points today after pretty much treading water last week thanks to a good day on Friday. The market all of a sudden looks to have lost some of its upward steam. But, this is the repeating choppy pattern of the past 5 months — make a run then retreat a bit, make another run then retreat a bit, make another run then retreat a bit.
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET SETTLES EFFECTIVELY UNCHANGED ON WEEK; SEPTEMBER WASDE RELEASE ON FRIDAY

    September 07, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 9 points for the week ending Sept 4, finishing at 64.99. The Dec – Mar switch weakened (98) but remains well below full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Where Does The Market Go From Here?

    September 7, 2020

    Active trading last week led to a great deal of price volatility. After surpassing 66 cents early, it yielded to signs economic recovery may be progressing at a slower pace than hoped.
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Aug 2020
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Aug 2020

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 31st Aug 2020 to 05th Sep 2020

    • This week was volatile and bull dominated week. NY December Future was able to cross 66 cents psychological level and made double top on 66.44 cents, but was not able to sustain and close over 66 cents. Weaker dollar and spec buying pulled NY futures but ultimately week ended with win-win at 64.99 Cents losing 9 point a week.

    • U.S. Export Sales and shipment was good. Big quantity of shipment to China.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 4, 2020

    OPEN INTEREST SETS MOST RECENT HIGH SINCE MARCH

    • Prices Unable to Hold Gains This Week
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Decreased by 1.24 Million
    • China is Week’s Top Buyer of U.S. Cotton
    • More Rain Forecasted, but Uncertain
Shurley on Cotton
  • Again Pushing 66 Cents

    September 4, 2020

    Once again, cotton is pushing 66 cents. Prices (Dec futures) have not been able to successfully break (close above) 66 cents although trying a few times recently. Dec gained 58 points last week and thus far is up another 148 points this week (thru Tuesday, September 1)—closing at 66.34 cents today.

    Prices have made a steady but choppy trend up since early April. August was a good month—Dec futures gaining 335 points during the month.
MSP 2020-2021
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 5,265 to 5,365
    Medium Long Staple 5,515 to 5,665
    Long Staple 5,725 to 5,825
    Extra Long Staple 6,025 to 7,025
Plexus Market Comments 03 Sep
  • So where do we go from here?

    Spec and index fund buying has been propping the market up, but trade selling has capped the rally near 66 cents and forced a retreat. With outside markets looking shaky at the moment, we don’t expect specs to chase cotton prices higher at this point.

    Support is most likely going to come from scale-down fixation buying, but this could change if outside markets were to switch into ‘risk off’ mode.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 27-08-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,31,500
    Upland Shipments 2,73,900
    Net Pima Sales 17,300
    Pima Shipments 12,100
    TOTAL SALES 1,48,800

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 17 August 2020)

    Limited Cotton Recovery within Pandemic: Production and Stock Levels High, Slow Consumption Growth  

    Even as the most stringent containment measures begin to be lifted, the opportunity for economic recovery may not relieve current market uncertainty. Countries vary in their ability to flatten the contagion curve and the fiscal space to mitigate the pandemic associated recession.
Thompson On Cotton
  • China Commodity Buying Works Against Cotton

    August 31, 2020

    Growers were greeted this past week with an excellent pricing opportunity, whether it was for old crop or those looking to forward price new crop. Following a jump in the LDP to 340 points, the December futures contract closed above 66 cents on Tuesday before ending the week at 65.08.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET SETTLES HIGHER ON WEEK, BUT HURRICANES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER “BUY-THE-RUMOR, SELL-THE-FACT” EVENT

    August 31, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract picked up 80 points for the week ending Aug 28, finishing at 65.08 even as the contract breached the 66.00 level over the course of the week. The Dec – Mar switch was strengthened a bit at (85).
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 24th Aug 2020 to 29th Aug 2020

    • China cancelled some old US cotton bargain but purchased new contract in weekly export sales. US Export Shipment was lower but good number of shipments to China is a positive sign for market.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • AUGUST 28, 2020

    FUTURES RALLIED TO FRESH SIX-MONTH HIGH THIS WEEK

    • Continuing Jobless Claims Fell About 300,000 to 14.5 Million
    • Texas and Oklahoma Crop Conditions Slipped Sharply This Week
    • Assessing Damage from Hurricane Laura

    Futures rallied to a fresh six-month high this week. Last Friday’s trading range was one of the smallest ranges in several weeks, but Monday made up for it. December futures surged as the market grappled with the possibility of two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • With China’s Realignment, Better Times Ahead?

    August 28, 2020

    Flip Flop!! The opening sentence last week was, “The Big Bear.” Finally, I am happy again. The Big Bull.

    Prices are going up and 2021 plantings are going up. While near-term fundamentals remain bearish, a bull beginning to grow, and he will reach maturity.
Plexus Market Comments 27 Aug
  • So where do we go from here?

    Two tropical systems caused the market to trade in typical ‘buy the rumor – sell the fact’ fashion this week, and now that the storms are gone without inflicting much harm, we might see prices pull back some more from here.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 20-08-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,56,600
    Upland Shipments 2,77,500
    Net Pima Sales 12,600
    Pima Shipments 10,200
    TOTAL SALES 1,69,200

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 7,900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 7,900
Shurley on Cotton
  • A Run We’ve Waited For

    August 25, 2020

    Dec20 futures knocked on the door of 66 cents (closed at 65.82 cents per lb) today—the highest daily close in 6 months. Dec gained 1.43 cents last week on weather concerns and a good export report and gained another 1.54 cents today.
Jernigan Global Weekly 24-Aug-2020
  • 1. US BIG BOX RETAILERS’ SALES SURGE WHILE APPAREL RETAILERS SUFFER

    2. BAD NEWS FOR COTTON AS ENVIRONMENTAL MESSAGE NOT BEING TOLD

    3. NEW SHOCKING EVIDENCE THAT PLASTIC MICRO AND NANO FIBERS ACCUMULATE IN HUMAN ORGANS

    4. PAKISTAN TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORTS RETURN TO GROWTH

    5. WILL CHINESE DEMAND FOR AUSTRALIAN COTTON REBOUND IN 2020/2021?
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter August-2020
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Movement in benchmark prices was mixed over the past month.

    The NY December futures contract moved lower (to below 60 cents/lb in late July) and then higher (near 65 cents/lb in early August) over the past month. Current values (63 cents/lb) are nearly even with those from one month ago.

USDA - WASDE
  • Aug-2020

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton outlook includes higher beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks, and a decline in consumption. Production for the 2020 crop is raised 3 percent to 18.1 million bales, on NASS’s first survey-based production forecast. The survey indicates lower harvested area and higher yield compared with last month’s expectations.  Abandonment is expected to rise to 24 percent—compared with 16 percent in 2019.
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jul 2020
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jul 2020

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate
    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate
    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing
    • Cotlook Index
    • ICE Future Closing
    • NCDEX Kapas Rate
    • MCX Future Closing
    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jun 2020
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jun 2020

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
Weather Forecast 19-June
  • A cyclonic circulation is over East Uttar Pradesh and adjoining area. Another cyclonic circulation is over Central Pakistan. A trough is extending from central Pakistan to Bangladesh across Rajasthan, South Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal in lower levels. A cyclonic circulation is over central parts of Assam. A cyclonic circulation is over south Konkan. A shear zone is extending from this cyclonic circulation to Chhattisgarh across North Interior Karnataka and Telangana. 
NCC survey
  • U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020

    U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
  • Executive Cotton Update - February 2020

    Macroeconomic Overview:  The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019.  Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%.  For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.    

ICAC - Executive Summary Dec-2019
  • Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:

    Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency

    Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
Gujcot Cotton Crop Estimate 2019-20
  • Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%

    we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
TDS Notification
  • Government Notification for exemption from TDS on Cash Withdrawal from Bank

    Read Notiofication in PDF
Gujarat Cotton Sowing Final Report
  • 07 October 2019

    Gujarat Area under Cotton Sowing reached 26,68,300 Hectares.

    Saurashtra 18,89,000 Hectares.
    North Gujarat 2,40,400 Hectares.
    Middle Gujarat 3,21,300 Hectares.
    South Gujarat 1,57,100 Hectares.
    Kutch 60,500 Hectares.
Gujcot Annual Report 2018-19
  • The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
MSP 2019-2020
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 5,005 to 5,150
    Medium Long Staple 5,255 to 5,405
    Long Staple 5,450 to 5,550
    Extra Long Staple 5,750 to 6,750
MSP 2018-2019
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 4,900 to 5,000
    Medium Long Staple 5,150 to 5,300
    Long Staple 5,350 to 5,450
    Extra Long Staple 5,650 to 6,650
China Cotton Auction
  • From May 5 to Sep 27, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 979,100 tons, and the turnover rate was 85.94%.
US Export Sales Summary
  • 01-Aug-2019 To 22-Aug-2019

    2019-2020

    COMMITMENTS
    PIMA 1,53,645
    UPLAND 80,84,753
    TOTAL 82,38,398

    SHIPMENTS
    PIMA 29,297
    UPLAND 8,61,924
    TOTAL 8,91,221

    2020-2021 SALES

    UPLAND 4,63,124
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Highlights

    Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29 million 480 lb. bales (37.1 million 170-kilogram bales/6.3 MMT) with a planting area of 12.7 million hectares. MY 2019/20 mill consumption remains weak as mills accumulate greater cotton yarn stocks due to poor demand. Export prospects have diminished while imports are expected to remain stable as they are price competitive against domestic supplies.
USDA - Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook

    U.S. Cotton Product Trade Increasing in 2019

    The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
India's Cotton Textiles Export Update for FY (April – June) 2019-20
  • India’s Cotton Textiles Exports

    Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.

    In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
USDA -World Markets and Trade
  • China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position
    as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
Indian Raw Cotton Export-Import 2018-19
  • INDIAN COTTON EXPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    6,63,386 Tones
    39,02,271 Bales of 170 Kg

    INDIAN COTTON IMPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    1,01,072 Tones
    5,94,541 Bales of 170 Kg

USDA Prospective Plantings
  • USDA Planting Intention

    US All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

    Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018.

    American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.
GUJCOT CROP SURVEY REPORT 2018-19
  • Saurashtra
    Area in Hectare = 19,29,800
    Yield Kg/ha = 447.88
    Crop in 170 Kgs Bales = 50,84,224

    North Gujarat
    Area in Hectare = 3,76,800
    Yield Kg/ha = 575.84
    Crop in 170 Kgs Bales = 12,76,340

    Main Line
    Area in Hectare = 3,49,200
    Yield Kg/ha = 749.92
    Crop in 170 Kgs Bales = 15,40,429

    Kutch
    Area in Hectare = 56,300
    Yield Kg/ha = 825.00
    Crop in 170 Kgs Bales = 2,73,221
Brazil: More cotton acreage is being planted
  • Shifting Corn Acres to Cotton

    While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.

    Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
Gujarat Cotton Sowing Final Report
  • 08 October 2018

    Gujarat Area under Cotton Sowing reached 27,12,100 Hectares.

    Saurashtra 19,29,800 Hectares.
    North Gujarat 2,73,500 Hectares.
    Middle Gujarat 3,07,500 Hectares.
    South Gujarat 1,44,900 Hectares.
    Kutch 56,300 Hectares.
All India Cotton Sowing Till 19-Sept
  • All India Cotton sowing area reached 1,20,64,100 Hectares against 1,21,71,900 hectares same period last year.

    North India 14,45,100
    Central India 75,28,900
    South India 29,15,000
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
  • Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA

    Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
China Cotton Auction FINAL
  • 12-March-2018 To 30-Sept-2018

    METRIC TONNES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 5,256,286
    Cumulative Sales 2,510,279
    Remaining Stock 2,746,007

    BALES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 24,142,123
    Cumulative Sales 11,529,712
    Remaining Stock 2,612,411
GST Refund Notification
  • GST Refund of unutilised input credit

    As per notification issued yesterday, Refund will be granted of unutilised GST credit on raw materials purchased after 1st August, 2018.
MSP 2017-2018
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 3,770 to 3,870
    Medium Long Staple 4,020 to 4,170
    Long Staple 4,220 to 4,320
    Extra Long Staple 4,520 to 5,520
MSP 2016-2017
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 3,610 to 3,710
    Medium Long Staple 3,860 to 4,010
    Long Staple 4,060 to 4,160
    Extra Long Staple 4,360 to 5,360
MSP 2015-2016
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 3,550 to 3,650
    Medium Long Staple 3,800 to 3,950
    Long Staple 4,000 to 4,100
    Extra Long Staple 4,300 to 5,300
MSP 2014-2015
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 3,500 to 3,600
    Medium Long Staple 3,750 to 3,900
    Long Staple 3,950 to 4,050
    Extra Long Staple 4,250 to 5,250
MSP 2013-2014
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 3,450 to 3,550
    Medium Long Staple 3,700 to 3,850
    Long Staple 3,900 to 4,000
    Extra Long Staple 4,200 to 5,200
MSP 2012-2013
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 3,400 to 3,450
    Medium Long Staple 3,600 to 3,750
    Long Staple 3,800 to 3,900
    Extra Long Staple 4,100 to 5,100
MSP 2011-2012
  • Government of India raised Minimum Support Price of Kapas.

    Medium Staple 2,600 to 2,650
    Medium Long Staple 2,800 to 3,050
    Long Staple 3,100 to 3,300
    Extra Long Staple 3,500 to 4,500