Gujcot Third Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2023-24
Posted : July 20, 2024

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

 

  • Daily Physical Spot Rate

 

  • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

 

  • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

 

  • Cotlook Index

 

  • ICE Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX Kapas Rate

 

  • MCX Future Closing

 

  • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

 

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

 

  • The April-June quarter was marked by significant volatility and a major downturn in the cotton market.
  • NY Futures for May and July started near 93 cents, with April experiencing a continuous downtrend. In May, the front month was July, and prices remained in a narrow range of 77 to 85 cents. However, in June, the market crashed again, reaching the low 70s. By the end of June, December, as the front month, closed at 72.69 cents.
  • Bearish WASDE reports, projecting an American crop of nearly 16 million bales for the next season, combined with large crops in Brazil and Australia and sluggish demand in the textile industry, created panic in the futures market.
  • U.S. export sales also declined due to slow demand, leading the USDA to revise export sales from 12.3 million bales to 11.8 million bales.
  • The Indian physical market also followed NY Futures, experiencing a continuous decline. It started at 61,000 and fell to nearly 57,000 in April. For the next two months, it traded within a narrow range of 55,500 to 57,500.
  • Basis players held large quantities with a negative basis in India when ICE was near a dollar. After the downtrend in ICE, the Indian physical market did not react immediately, causing the Indian basis to shoot up from par to 1,500 by the end of the quarter. This presented an opportunity for basis players to profit, and they offloaded significant quantities during this period.
  • Throughout the full quarter from April to June, the currency remained stable, fluctuating within a narrow range between 83.09 and 83.65.
  • In June, the new government increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of cotton by 500 Rs. per quintal. This created some panic, and in the last two weeks of June, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) was able to sell a large quantity.
  • Indian mills have covered a large quantity from merchants through forward bookings. Additionally, imports are now at parity, so mills have also booked some import requirements. Currently, Indian mills are struggling to find buyers, leading them to slow down their purchases.
  • Both the Cotton Association of India (CAI) and the Cotton Corporation of India’s Production Committee (COCPC) have held their meetings and declared their cotton production estimates. CAI estimates production at 317 lakh bales, while COCPC estimates it at 325.22 lakh bales.
  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts a 104% monsoon for India. However, in June, Gujarat and North India experienced a deficit. Despite this, the anticipated improvement in the monsoon has led to a much faster sowing process compared to last year.
  • With expectations of a better monsoon, we anticipate a promising season ahead.

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