Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.
Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.
In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:
Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency
Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
Macroeconomic Overview: The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019. Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%. For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.
U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020
U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.
Movement in benchmark prices was mixed over the past month.
The NY December futures contract moved lower (to below 60 cents/lb in late July) and then higher (near 65 cents/lb in early August) over the past month. Current values (63 cents/lb) are nearly even with those from one month ago.
Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 17 August 2020)
Limited Cotton Recovery within Pandemic: Production and Stock Levels High, Slow Consumption Growth
Even as the most stringent containment measures begin to be lifted, the opportunity for economic recovery may not relieve current market uncertainty. Countries vary in their ability to flatten the contagion curve and the fiscal space to mitigate the pandemic associated recession.
All international benchmark prices increased over the past month.
The NY December futures contract climbed from 67 to as high as 72 cents/lb near the end of October. More recently, prices eased back to 70 cents/lb. Cotlook’s A Index rose from 73 to 76 cents/lb over the past month.
Procurement operations of seed cotton (Kapas) under MSP are going on smoothly in the States of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka. Till 23.03.2021 a quantity of 91,86,803 cotton bales valuing Rs.26,719.51 Crore has been procured benefitting 18,86,498 farmers.
Production, Consumption and Trade are Expected to Increase in 2021/22
For the current season, the global production estimate for 2020/21 has been reduced to 24.3 million tonnes this month with smaller crop estimates expected for India, Brazil, and the United States. For India, the latest meeting of the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) reported production for 2020/21 at 6.12 million tonnes. With the country under crisis from a second wave of COVID-19, mill-use has been revised down to 5.15 million tonnes.
Uncertainty and panic over the OMICRON variant caused the cotton market, along with many other commodities, to drop significantly in price over the past 2 weeks.
Cotton set for best week in over 2 – months on strong export sales data
ICE cotton futures rose 3% on Friday and were headed for their best week in more than two months, supported by strong U.S. export numbers and on hopes of an uptick in demand from top consumer China.
• October was month of continuous down trend. NY December future lost about 1300 points during the month. USDA WASDE was bearish. USDA reduced world consumption by 3 million bales so world ending stock was also up by 3 million bales. Recession fear in Europe and America has created downward sentiment.
• US Export sales was poor also some cancellation from China reason for downtrend. But US is well committed to reach USDA export target.
The lack of demand is clearly a problem at the moment and as such the WASDE doesn’t reflect the right set of numbers in its balance sheet. While the supply side is now more or less known, the demand side is overstated by several million bales and will have to be adjusted lower over the coming months, which will have a bearish impact.
• November month started with sharp uptrend during the first week. NY Future closed limit up for the first four days in this month and jumped to 87 cents from 72 cents in just one week. There after remained highly volatility during the month.
The cotton market was somewhat higher Monday, inspired by adverse weather unfolding across the Belt, as well as continued supporters from Friday's acres report.
The cotton market was somewhat higher Monday, inspired by adverse weather unfolding across the Belt, as well as continued supporters from Friday's acres report.
All cotton planted area for 2023 is estimated at 11.3 million acres, down 18 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 11.1 million acres, down 18 percent from 2022. American Pima area is estimated at 154,000 acres, down 16 percent from 2022.
Indian Farmers Might Be Holding Their Cotton but Global Production Remains Stable
In this edition of Cotton This Month, we will examine the current situation with delayed cotton arrivals in India and how this may affect the global balance sheets in the 2022/23 season.
Since plummeting to the low 70s last fall, new crop December 2023 futures roller-coastered up, then down, then up again to near 86 cents by the end of January. December 2023 has since teetered within a five-cent range of mostly 79 to 84 cents over the past five months.
Cotlook’s May supply and demand forecasts indicate lower consumption and higher world ending stocks for both 2022/23 and 2023/24
Cotlook’s forecast of global raw cotton output in 2022/23 has been reduced this month, by 69,000 tonnes to 24,852,000 tonnes. Reductions for the African Franc Zone and the United States were partially offset by increases for China and Australia.
Cotton’s Slow Period Continues... But Planting Decisions Are Coming Soon
With the current season coming to a close it is time to start shifting our focus to the next season with high hopes and anticipation. Most of the Northern Hemisphere cotton producing countries have started planting, are preparing for planting, or are thinking about planting. Soil moisture is an essential ingredient for a successful planting operation.
Dec cotton futures gave up 53 points on the week (the very same 53 points it gained last week) finishing at 85.91, with the Dec – Mar spread strengthening a bit to (84). Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct. Dec has commenced the new week notably higher.
Cotton prices for the week traded in a high-to-low range of only 190 points. Every attempt to move beyond eighty-two cents was quickly stifled by grower selling while downside support held firm at 80 cents before giving way slightly on Friday closing at 79.83. This was disheartening when at the same time the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ were hitting all-time highs.
COTTON: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 334,000 bales to 12.1 million, based on the March 8 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s U.S. area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2024 Crop Production report. Ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower this month at 2.5 million.
All cotton planted area for 2024 is estimated at 10.7 million acres, up 4 percent from last year. Upland area is estimated at 10.5 million acres, up 4 percent from 2023. American Pima area is estimated at 203,000 acres, up 38 percent from 2023.
Cotton futures finished lower for the week at 91.38 cents per pound but managed to recover some of the week’s losses after the release of Thursday’s Prospective Plantings report.
• May futures closed at 91.38 cents per pound, finishing 83 points lower for the week.
• News in the cotton market was relatively light this week, as traders were anticipating the Prospective Plantings report.
My best cotton friend in Lubbock says the market is going higher while my best buddy in Memphis says it’s going lower. Of course, I agree with my friends.
COTTON: The U.S. 2023/24 cotton supply and demand projections are unchanged this month, with ending stocks forecast at 2.5 million bales or 18 percent of total disappearance. The marketing year price received by upland cotton producers is projected to average 76 cents per pound, a decrease of 1 cent from last month.
Cotton futures continued to fall during a busy, data-driven week.
• May futures settled at 83.37 cents per pound, finishing 377 points lower for the week.
• With May First Notice Day less than two weeks away, the July contract will start to take focus. July futures settled at 85.25 cents per pound, finishing 332 points lower for the week.
No Sugar Coating: Bearish Tones Return to Cotton Market
Apr 14, 2024
Thoughts that cotton had been knocked out last week were premature, as the spot May contract and other prices across the board fell in unison – including the especially important new crop December contract.
July futures continued their descent, finishing higher in only one trading session this week.
• May First Notice Day is less than a week away, so traders are focused on the July contract. July futures settled at 80.61 cents per pound, finishing 464 points lower for the week.
Focus Shifts to Production as Cotton Prices Falter
Apr 19, 2024
The cotton market suffered through another week of mad cow disease as the new crop December contract fell to a low of 77.26 cents before recovering, settling the week at 77.55. The old crop May contract settled the week at 78.69 cents, but that contract delivery period begins next week.
Cotton Prices Trapped as Export Sales Continue with No Change in Demand
Low prices have encouraged export sales of all growths and U.S. cotton continues to move. Yet the level of sales is not sufficient to suggest that demand is improving. In fact, the level of sales does not even suggest any improvement in demand. Thus, cotton prices remain trapped within the narrow six cent, 77-83 cent trading range. The high 70s to low 80s trading range for both old crop and new crop will continue to prevail.
Prepare to Price 2024 Cotton Late in the Marketing Season
May 05, 2024
Fundamentals drove cotton prices down to the mid-70s before selling ran out of steam and a small bit of demand brought prices back to the high 70s for old crop and the mid-70s for new crop. July found its support at 77 cents but slipped lower before recapturing the 78-cent mark, settling the week at 78.06. Likewise, December searched out its support at the 74-cent mark and settled the week at 75.97.
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2024/25 include a larger crop as planted area is slightly higher and abandonment is projected at less than half the rate realized in 2023/24. Production is forecast at 16.0 million bales, based on 10.67 million planted acres as indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report, with harvested area expected to rise 2.7 million acres year over year to 9.1 million. U.S. abandonment is projected below the 10-year average reflecting moisture conditions to date in the Southwest.
The cure for low prices has finally set in. The recovery will be slow and, just like recovery from many ailments, there will be good and bad days. Some setbacks can be expected along the way.
Cotton suffered another sloppy week as lower Chinese prices, coupled with bearish inflation numbers and very weak apparel sales, all worked to force prices lower – even limit down one day and near limit down trading on another.
The market finally felt some relief after weeks of selling and finished higher in four consecutive trading sessions.
• July futures gained 548 points from last week’s close, settling at 81.72 cents per pound. The July contract closed up the limit on Wednesday and had another strong rally on Thursday.
Another Second Chance Price Rally Still Not Enough
Cotton will come around. But as we have repeatedly commented, the 2024 crop will have to be priced in 2025, most likely based on the May 2025 contract. It is just going to take that long before mills will approach 85% spinning capacity. Neither U.S. nor world carryover are burdensome. Thus, the inching upward of demand will pull prices along.
Nothing is worse than to have land, money, and other resources already committed to production and watching the market (and the value of expected production) decline. Farming is a biological process and takes time, and time creates risk. Resources must be committed months in advance of production and marketing.
Misery loves company and cotton had a lot of company this week. Yet, cotton trading should not have been that bad. The old crop July contract, trading with just over two weeks before first notice day, fell into the 73’s, while next year’s hope – the new crop December futures contract – fell into the 72’s. The 74-cent area appeared to be the holding station for July futures and still may be, but market/government fundamentals could push it lower.
COTTON: The 2024/25 U.S. cotton projections show higher beginning and ending stocks compared to last month. Projected production, domestic use and exports are unchanged. The 2024/25 season average upland farm price is down 4 cents from the May forecast to 70 cents per pound following a decline in new-crop cotton futures.
Cotton futures continued to slide on a looser balance sheet for June and rains in the Southwest.
• Since last week’s close, July futures gave up 409 points, settling at 71.35 cents per pound. The decline is primarily due to the contract’s liquidation as First Notice Day approaches.
There are tiny cracks appearing in the cotton bear’s armor. They are minute, well camouflaged, and may be difficult to penetrate, but finally they are there. Indications are that mills can finally see value in cotton with prices in the low to mid-70s. Demand will have to surface by the first quarter of 2025 to truly build a higher price base.
Cotton futures were up modestly, finding support after trading on both sides of the market this week.
• December futures fell to their lowest level since October 2022 but recouped some losses by the end of the week. The contract traded 83 points higher, settling at 72.62 cents per pound.
The tiny cracks in the bears’ armor remain just that – tiny. Yet, they exist and absent an absolutely unexpected widespread excellent rain over some nearly two million acres of Texas cotton (primarily Districts 1-N and 1-S) over the next two weeks, those cracks will begin to widen. Certainly, much more moisture is needed over the vast dryland acreage of 1-S.
