Market Reports
China Cotton Auction FINAL
  • 12-March-2018 To 30-Sept-2018

    METRIC TONNES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 5,256,286
    Cumulative Sales 2,510,279
    Remaining Stock 2,746,007

    BALES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 24,142,123
    Cumulative Sales 11,529,712
    Remaining Stock 2,612,411
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
  • Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA

    Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
Brazil: More cotton acreage is being planted
  • Shifting Corn Acres to Cotton

    While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.

    Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
Exchange Stock Position
  • MCX Cotton As on 18-Feb-2021

    Total Utilized Capacity =2,11,825 Bales
    Eligible for Exchange Delivery = 1,76,775
    Quantity in Process = 31,275
    Rejected Stocks = 3,775 Bales

    NCDEX KHAL As on 18-Feb-2021

    Cotton Seed Oil Cake Stock
    Unencumbered = 76,804 MT
    Pledged = 7,487 MT
    QTY in Process = 715 MT
USDA Prospective Plantings
  • USDA Planting Intention

    US All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

    Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018.

    American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.
Indian Raw Cotton Export-Import 2018-19
  • INDIAN COTTON EXPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    6,63,386 Tones
    39,02,271 Bales of 170 Kg

    INDIAN COTTON IMPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    1,01,072 Tones
    5,94,541 Bales of 170 Kg

China Cotton Auction
  • From May 5 to Sep 27, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 979,100 tons, and the turnover rate was 85.94%.
USDA -World Markets and Trade
  • China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position
    as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
India's Cotton Textiles Export Update for FY (April – June) 2019-20
  • India’s Cotton Textiles Exports

    Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.

    In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
USDA - Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook

    U.S. Cotton Product Trade Increasing in 2019

    The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
US Export Sales Summary
  • 01-Aug-2019 To 22-Aug-2019

    2019-2020

    COMMITMENTS
    PIMA 1,53,645
    UPLAND 80,84,753
    TOTAL 82,38,398

    SHIPMENTS
    PIMA 29,297
    UPLAND 8,61,924
    TOTAL 8,91,221

    2020-2021 SALES

    UPLAND 4,63,124
ICAC - Executive Summary Dec-2019
  • Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:

    Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency

    Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
  • Executive Cotton Update - February 2020

    Macroeconomic Overview:  The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019.  Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%.  For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.    

NCC survey
  • U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020

    U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter August-2020
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Movement in benchmark prices was mixed over the past month.

    The NY December futures contract moved lower (to below 60 cents/lb in late July) and then higher (near 65 cents/lb in early August) over the past month. Current values (63 cents/lb) are nearly even with those from one month ago.

ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 17 August 2020)

    Limited Cotton Recovery within Pandemic: Production and Stock Levels High, Slow Consumption Growth  

    Even as the most stringent containment measures begin to be lifted, the opportunity for economic recovery may not relieve current market uncertainty. Countries vary in their ability to flatten the contagion curve and the fiscal space to mitigate the pandemic associated recession.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter November-2020
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    All international benchmark prices increased over the past month.

    The NY December futures contract climbed from 67 to as high as 72 cents/lb near the end of October.  More recently, prices eased back to 70 cents/lb.
    Cotlook’s A Index rose from 73 to 76 cents/lb over the past month.
MSP Procurement 23-Mar-2021
  • Procurement operations of seed cotton (Kapas) under MSP are going on smoothly in the States of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka. Till 23.03.2021 a quantity of 91,86,803 cotton bales valuing Rs.26,719.51 Crore has been procured benefitting 18,86,498 farmers.
ICAC Executive Summary
  • Lower Production Expected to Ease Pressure on Prices in 2020/21

    Highlights from the December 2020 Cotton This Month include

    *The global production estimate has been lowered to 24.7 million tonnes for 2020/21

    *The global consumption estimate remains steady ay 24.3 million tonnes

    *Global trade is expected to climb to 9.4 million tonnes

ICAC - Cotton Update
  • 15th Mar 2021

    Major changes (larger than 40,000 tonnes)

    Australia 2020/21: production 562,000 tonnes (+56,000 tonnes)

    Brazil 2020/21: production 2.5 million tonnes (-128,600 tonnes)

    2020/21: exports 1.74 million tonnes (+79,000 tonnes)
SECOND QUARTERLY RATE MOVEMENT 2020-21
  • SECOND QUARTERLY RATE MOVEMENT 2020-21

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Production, Consumption and Trade are Expected to Increase in 2021/22

    For the current season, the global production estimate for 2020/21 has been reduced to 24.3 million tonnes this month with smaller crop estimates expected for India, Brazil, and the United States. For India, the latest meeting of the Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption (COCPC) reported production for 2020/21 at 6.12 million tonnes. With the country under crisis from a second wave of COVID-19, mill-use has been revised down to 5.15 million tonnes.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Market’s Path Clearer But Still Uncertain

    July 13, 2021

    Prices continue to show strength. New crop December futures closed today at 88.16 cents—the highest in a month and topping 88 cents for the third time near the contract high.

    Cotton’s path seems on more solid footing in recent weeks. Given the present fundamentals, the market has clearly established a current objective top at near 90 cents. It looks like there’s currently plenty of support at 84.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Maybe Not Red, but Possible Caution Flags Ahead

    July 30, 2021

    A positive spin on things first. This appears to be shaping up as one of those rare and blessed years where most producers will enjoy both a good crop and a good price. It doesn’t happen often.
    Prices (new crop Dec futures) have moved to the 87 to 88 cents area 4 times since the beginning of 2021. This most recent move has now carried us to new highs at better than 90 cents.
Cotton Indices and Spot Rate As on 17-Aug-2020
  • Brazil Cotton Index 100.05 +1.51%

    Cotlook A Index 102.75 unch

    US Upland Spot Rate 91.81 +0.85

    MCX Spot Rate 27,160

    China Cotton Index
    As on 18-Aug-2021

    CC Index 328: 18542 +138
    CC Index 527: 17498 +120
    CC Index 229: 18831 +146
Shurley on Cotton
  • Strong Prices Continue – So Far with Few Hiccups
    Aug 27, 2021

    Most of the time, but not always, prices tend to trend down into the harvest months. It’s called seasonality and for that reason, farmers like to price some portion of their crop prior to harvest. How much varies from farmer to farmer and depends on how much risk he/she is willing to take on an unknown future.

    This continues to be shaping up as one of those not-very-often years where farmers stand to enjoy both a good crop and at a good price.
Shurley on Cotton
  • The See-Saw at 90-Plus Continues – What Lies Ahead?

    September 16, 2021

    The strong uptrend in prices seems to have leveled out. Prices (Dec futures) have been in a range of mostly 92 to 95 cents for the past month plus. Dec closed at almost 95 cents back on August 17 but followed by at a close at 92.3 cents on September 1.

    Last week ended at 93.5 cents—down 52 points for the week. So far this week (through today, September 15), Dec is down another 13 points to 93.37 cents.
Jernigan Global
  • News Letter 01-Nov-2021

    1. IS THE WORLD BECOMING ADJUSTED TO 100 CENTS PLUS COTTON? OR IS IT ALL LOGISTICS?

    2. CHINA CALMS SPECULATIVE ACTIVITY WITH VERY STALINIST MEASURES
Jerningan Global News Letter 15-Nov-2021

  • 1. INDIA DIWALI & RECORD COTTON PRICES ADD TO GLOBAL GROWTH PROSPECTS

    2. US CFR BASIS LEVELS REACH NEW EXTREMES: ARE THEY PEAKING? IS A E/MOT M 1 1/8 WORTH 2100 ON?
Jernigan Global Weekly 21-Nov-2021
  • JERNIGAN GLOBAL
    News Letter 21-Nov-2021

    1. INDIAN DEBATE INTERJECTS NEW DYNAMICS TO GLOBAL TRADE SPECIAL INDIAN ISSUE

    2. MSP DETERMINES INDIAN COTTON ACREAGE

    3. INDIAN COTTON EXPORT & YARN TRADE MAJOR PART OF WORLD TRADE
Shurley on Cotton
  • New OMICRON Variant Causing Panic

    November 30, 2021

    It’s not just cotton. All commodities and the US stock market as well, are reeling from news of a new virus strain. Should growers be concerned? Yes. Will prices recover? Likely, but when and how much. And will the market fall further before a recovery?
Shurley on Cotton
  • Fundamentals Provide Reason For New Hope, Support

    December 10, 2021

    Uncertainty and panic over the OMICRON variant caused the cotton market, along with many other commodities, to drop significantly in price over the past 2 weeks.
JERNIGAN GLOBAL News Letter 14-Dec-2021
  • 1. COTTON PRICE BEGINS TO FIND DEMAND ABOVE 100 CENTS

    2. IS THIS TIME ABOVE 100 CENTS DIFFERENT?
ICE Cotton Update
  • Cotton set for best week in over 2 – months on strong export sales data

    ICE cotton futures rose 3% on Friday and were headed for their best week in more than two months, supported by strong U.S. export numbers and on hopes of an uptick in demand from top consumer China.
Monthly Rate Movement Report January– 2022
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report January– 2022

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

    We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.
Gujcot Monthly Rate Movement Report – Oct 2022
  • • October was month of continuous down trend. NY December future lost about 1300 points during the month. USDA WASDE was bearish. USDA reduced world consumption by 3 million bales so world ending stock was also up by 3 million bales. Recession fear in Europe and America has created downward sentiment.

    • US Export sales was poor also some cancellation from China reason for downtrend. But US is well committed to reach USDA export target.
PLEXUS Market Comments
  • So where do we go from here?

    Considering that the US dollar dropped and the stock market rallied, cotton underperformed today, which could be sign that this impressive two-week rally might be running out of steam.
PLEXUS Market Comments
  • So where do we go from here?

    The lack of demand is clearly a problem at the moment and as such the WASDE doesn’t reflect the right set of numbers in its balance sheet. While the supply side is now more or less known, the demand side is overstated by several million bales and will have to be adjusted lower over the coming months, which will have a bearish impact.
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Cotton is a Calling

    December 2, 2022

    This hurts, I am an optimist, and I will be rewarded.Cotton fundamentals continue the struggle to find their rightful place in the determination and discovery of the price of cotton.The continued limit up and limit down trading action in the cotton market is unique. Cotton fundamentals, per se, are simply not being reflected in the market, or are they?
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 01-Dec-2022

    2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 32,700
    Upland Shipments 1,41,100
    Net Pima Sales 1,500
    Pima Shipments 6,900
    TOTAL SALES 34,200

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 26,400
    Net Pima Sales 200
    TOTAL 26,600
Gujcot Monthly Rate Movement Report – Nov 2022
  • • November month started with sharp uptrend during the first week. NY Future closed limit up for the first four days in this month and jumped to 87 cents from 72 cents in just one week. There after remained highly volatility during the month.

    • USDA WASDE report was neutral to bearish.
USDA - WASDE
  • Dec-2022

    This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks but lower mill use and exports. Production is 211,000 bales higher—at 14.2 million bales—mainly due to higher yields in the Delta and Southeast. Mill use is lowered 100,000 bales reflecting reduced spinning levels to date and weaker expectations for future demand. A reduction in expected world demand and trade results in a 250,000-bale decrease for U.S. cotton exports, down to 12.25 million.
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Cotton is a Calling

    December 9, 2022

    Note:There will not be a newsletter next week.I have a scheduled battle with a heart surgeon who assures me it will be two weeks before I will write again.Higher cotton prices represent the best path to recovery.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • Dec 13, 2022

    ICE Mar cotton gave up 225 points on the week, finishing at 80.95, with the Dec – Mar inversion contracting to only 5 points. Last weekend our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous weekly settlement, which turned out to be incorrect, but we did not recommend trading any bias ahead of Friday’s WASDE release. Thus far,, the Mar contract is higher on the week.
Thompson on Cotton: Casting Mixed Signals
  • December 13, 2022

    Stubbornly for weeks, eighty cent has provided firm support in a sideways trading market. With the issuance of two major reports, export sales and the December WASDE, there was fear if either were bearish this support would be tested. Coming as no surprise, both were negative, the latter extremely so. All the same, to the amazement of many eighty-cent held firm with March futures closing the week at 80.95.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 08-Dec-2022

    2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 18,600
    Upland Shipments 1,41,900
    Net Pima Sales 1,300
    Pima Shipments 3,800
    TOTAL SALES 19,900

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 28,200
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 28,200
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 16, 2022

    MARCH FUTURES HAD A WEEK OF TWO-SIDED TRADING RANGES

    • OUTSIDE MARKETS HAD BUSY WEEK
    • EXPORT SALES WERE TRIVIAL
Shurely on Cotton
  • A Brief Outlook for Old Crop and New Crop

    We’ve learned and experienced the evidence of how crop markets – especially cotton, it seems – can be impacted by “secondary” factors on the demand side. Factors that one may think have little or nothing to do with cotton but, in reality, can be thought of as a proxy of how things are going on the consumer and demand side – factors such as the value of the dollar, inflation, interest rates, the U.S. stock market, and COVID impacts here and abroad.
GUJCOT WEEKLY REPORT 17-DEC-2022
  • Market Movement from 12th Dec 2022 to 17th Dec 2022.

    • NY March traded in narrow range from 79 to 82.50 cents this week. Despite disappointing US export sales NY March closed with gain of 97 points W/W.

    • Due to huge cancelation of 48,000 bales net sales remained just 19,900 bales only and total shipment was 1,45,900. Total US export commitments just below 89 lakh bales out of that 35.62 lakh bales already shipped.
Thompson on Cotton
  • The Market Could Care Less About Anyone’s Cost of Production
    December 19, 2022

    Cotton prices continued to consolidate for yet another week. Trading in a narrow four-cent range, March futures closed each day within 100 points of the previous day’s close. Despite some early fund selling, it managed to finish the week in the black by almost a penny settling at 81.92. Obviously, at some point prices will move beyond this range and it will be the managed funds/specs that will determine in which direction.
Shurely on Cotton
  • A Brief Outlook for Old Crop and New Crop

    We’ve learned and experienced the evidence of how crop markets – especially cotton, it seems – can be impacted by “secondary” factors on the demand side. Factors that one may think have little or nothing to do with cotton but, in reality, can be thought of as a proxy of how things are going on the consumer and demand side – factors such as the value of the dollar, inflation, interest rates, the U.S. stock market, and COVID impacts here and abroad.
DTN Closing Cotton
  • Cotton Lower Friday, Upended By Financials

    March 24, 2023

    The cotton market was lower Friday as bearish outside influences discouraged buyers.

    The cotton market was lower Friday as bearish outside influences discouraged buyers. To that end, banking stocks have been battered in the last two weeks following the sudden failures of two U.S. lenders and the emergency sale of embattled Swiss bank Credit Suisse to rival UBS. Then, overnight, Deutsche Bank was thought to be in trouble. With that the U.S. stock market weakened.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales -87,800
    Upland Shipments 1,10,400
    Net Pima Sales 1,500
    Pima Shipments 8,100
    TOTAL SALES -86,300

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 1,000
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 1,000
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 23, 2022

    MARCH FUTURES RALLIED MOST OF THE WEEK

    • OUTSIDE MARKETS HAD ANOTHER WEEK OF LOSSES
    • EXPORT SALES REPORT SHOWED NET REDUCTIONS

    March futures rallied after struggling to find direction the past month, closing with gains four out of the five trading sessions this week. Cotton went into the weekend up slightly before rallying on Monday. The upward action on Monday had traders scratching their heads because of the bearish macroeconomic news we have been hearing recently.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Poor demand Remains the Anvil Hanging Over This Market

    December 27, 2022
    By Jeff Thompson, Autauga Quality Cotton

    Excuse the delay in our Cotton Market Review but quite frankly we were hindered by the record freeze which came with Christmas.  Even so, the Arctic blast did little to cool a resurging market as for the second consecutive week it posted a higher high.  March futures settled Friday at 85.21 for a gain of 329 points despite experiencing a limit down trading day.
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Holiday Price Rally Offers Cotton Hope

    December 24, 2022

    Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to All!

    It is great to be back even, as prices are just marginally higher for old crop. Yet, new crop gained on old crop as the December 2023 contract has now dug in its heels near the 81-cent level – three cents higher than the old 78 cent support price. As earlier suggested, the old crop/new crop price spread will continue to narrow and reach parity as early as March 2023.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 82,200
    Upland Shipments 1,40,300
    Net Pima Sales 5,600
    Pima Shipments 4,300
    TOTAL SALES 87,800

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 3,500
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 3,500
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 30, 2022

    MARCH FUTURES FACED DOWNWARD PRESSURE MOST OF THE WEEK

    • STOCKS FINISHED UP AFTER MIXED WEEK
    • EXPORT SALES REPORT HELD NET SALES OF 82,300 UPLAND BALES
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Cotton’s Bullish and Bearish Factors for 2023

    December 30, 2022

    Happy New Year!

    The final 2022 trading week in New York was somewhat bearish. The market suffered its lowest volume week of the year, with March futures settled for the year at 83.27 cents. The new crop December contract settled some 250 points lower at 80.88 cents. Thus, the price spread between old crop and new crop continues to shrink.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET BREAKING AFTER SMALL LOSS LAST WEEK

    Jan 04, 2023

    Our apologies for the late publication. We are well behind schedule due to power and internet outages over the last two days as strong storms have moved across the Mid-south.

    The market gave up 184, 124 and 2923 points on the week, month, and year, respectively. The market has commenced the abbreviated trading week off significantly Vs Friday’s settlement.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 39,600
    Upland Shipments 93,600
    Net Pima Sales -900
    Pima Shipments 3,400
    TOTAL SALES 38,700

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 00
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 00
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 6, 2023

    MARCH FUTURES HAD SLOW START TO NEW YEAR

    • OUTSIDE MARKETS HAD FLURRY OF ACTIVITY
    • EXPORT SALES WEAK ONCE AGAIN
    • COTTON ACRES SET TO DECREASE IN 2023/24
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Cotton is a Calling

    January 06, 2023

    Cotton prices back peddled all week. Yet, before crossing the finish line they surged higher. The nearby March contract jumped 310 points and settled the week at 85.68 cents. The new crop December contracted ending the week at 82.63 cents, up 215 points on the day. The 81-82 cent price support, thought to be week, proved to be very resilient and provided a bounce above 85 cents.
Thompson On Cotton 09-Jan-2023
  • Cotton Is Caught In A Catch-22   

    January 9, 2023

    As sounds of fireworks fade, the excitement of ringing in a New Year comes to an end.  Evidently, someone forgot to tell the cotton market for last week’s trading brought fireworks of its on.  Following an early week decline of nearly three cents, March futures rallied over five cents before closing Friday at 85.68. Oddly, this was done with little or no supportive economic data, nor any sign cotton consumption was improving.   
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 72,600
    Upland Shipments 1,50,500
    Net Pima Sales 3,300
    Pima Shipments 6,300
    TOTAL SALES 75,900

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 00
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 00
USDA - WASDE
  • January-2023

    COTTON: This month’s U.S. 2022/23 cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks, no change in U.S. mill use, and lower exports. Production is 438,000 bales higher, at 14.7 million, with yield at a record 947 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from the December estimate. Exports are forecast 250,000 bales lower, at 12.0 million, with both projected world trade and the U.S. share slightly lower this month. Ending stocks are up 700,000 bales to 4.2 million, equal to 30 percent of projected use.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 13, 2023

    BEARISH REPORTS WEIGHED ON COTTON MARKET

    • OUTSIDE MARKETS FARED BETTER WITH NEWS OF SLOWING INFLATION
    • EXPORT SALES IMPROVED BUT STILL DISAPPOINTING
    • U.S. PRODUCTION INCREASED TO 14.68 MILLION BALES
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Demand Woes Open the Door for Cotton’s Bears

    January 13, 2023

    USDA’s January supply demand report confirmed cotton’s demand woes, taking prices slightly lower on the week. Associated with the consumption decline, world trade in cotton also declined. It is 6.5-7.0 million bales below the 2020-21 marketing year.
Thompson on Cotton 17-Jan-2023
  • Like a Ticking Time Bomb

    Like a ticking time bomb,  March futures have traded in a range between a high of eighty-nine cents and a low of eighty cents for ten consecutive weeks. More worrisome, recently it has settled into the lower end of the range eighty-five to eighty cents. Last week, coming off a  five-cent rally there was hope of a continuation. This was soon squashed as traders bearishly viewed both the WASDE and Export Sales. As a result, March futures gave up 336 points on the week closing Friday at 82.29. 
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 2,09,500
    Upland Shipments 1,83,100
    Net Pima Sales 2,500
    Pima Shipments 6,300
    TOTAL SALES 2,12,000

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 26,900
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 26,900
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 20, 2023

    COTTON FUTURES TRADED HIGHER FOR THREE OF FOUR TRADING SESSIONS

    • OUTSIDE MARKETS WEIGHED DOWN BY RECESSION WOES
    • EXPORT SALES REPORT SHOWED INCREASED DEMAND
Thompson on Cotton 23-Jan-2023
  • A Significant Rebound
    January 23, 2023

    Though mired in the same trading range now going on twelve weeks, a significant rebound off the bottom occurred last week. This will be the fifth time in the past three months the market has tried to breakout and move back above 90 cents. Previous attempts have failed as weakening fundamentals or poor economic conditions reigned it in. However, the current rally is being fed by some promising news concerning demand, not to mention it’s when a seasonal bump in prices is often seen.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET TRADING  WATER AFTER STRONG WEEKLY GAIN

    Jan 24, 2023

    The market (Mar) gained 4411 points on the week, finishing at 86.70, with the Mar – May spread tight at (36).  The market is treading water, thus far, this week. For last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct.  However, overall, we recommended a short bias.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 2,13,700
    Upland Shipments 1,75,800
    Net Pima Sales 5,400
    Pima Shipments 2,100
    TOTAL SALES 2,19,100

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 6,100
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 6,100
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly 27-Jan-2023
  • January 27, 2023

    March Futures Benefit from Increased Demand

    Outside Markets Finish the Week Strong
    Export Sales Report Showed Recovering Sales
    March futures traded sideways for the week after rallying from last week’s increased Export Sales Report. The rally was also helped with China coming back to the market. The rest of the trading week was fairly unchanged due to the Lunar New Year holiday in Southeast Asia and lack of fundamental drivers able to take hold.
Cleveland on Cotton 27-Jan-2023
  • Sales Improving, but Cotton Prices Show Little Change

    There was terrific excitement in the market all week. Some thought cotton futures were finally headed to 90 cents. Yet, remember, it’s all about demand.

    Export sales are extremely limited to nil when prices are 86 cents and above. Sales are meager with prices between 83 to 85 cents. Sales are decent with prices at 82 cents and below. Period! A dip into the 70s is necessary to uncover great sales.
Thompson on Cotton 30-Jan-2023
  • Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

    Upon watching  last week’s market, we’re reminded of the words of  baseball  legend  Yogi Berra  when he said, “It’s like déjà vu all over again.”  March futures, in yet another valiant attempt to move above ninety cents,  met strong resistance in the form of grower selling and failed to do so.  However, unlike other unsuccessful tries, it found the strength to hold on and remain in the upper end of the trading range.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 26-Jan-2023

    2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 1,71,100
    Upland Shipments 2,12,200
    Net Pima Sales -800
    Pima Shipments 7,800
    TOTAL SALES 1,70,300

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 20,200
    Net Pima Sales 2,400
    TOTAL 22,600
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Cotton’s Great Expectations and Its Sobering Reality
    February 03, 2023

    Cotton’s week was filled with expectations of great sales to China, a breakout to higher prices, and the industry patting itself on the back as demand shot higher. The reality: Cotton prices moved lower on very average export sales and shipments, while economic reports point to potentially higher inflation and a further reduction in consumer spending.
Thompson on Cotton 06-Feb-2023
  • Cotton Fundamentals Take Center Stage

    Having grown accustomed to huge daily price swings it was heartening to see cotton trade in a more orderly fashion last week.  Though March futures did give up 146 points it traded within a narrow range of 290 points.  A high of 87.40 was all it could muster before closing Friday at 85.43.  New crop futures traded in a similar range of 262 points losing only half a cent before closing the week at 85.15. 
USDA - WASDE
  • Feb-2023

    COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower mill use and higher ending stocks relative to last month, while production and exports are unchanged. The mill use forecast is lowered 100,000 bales to 2.1 million on recent lower rates of monthly utilization. The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 83 cents per pound, unchanged from January.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 2,62,800
    Upland Shipments 2,10,100
    Net Pima Sales 1,300
    Pima Shipments 5,800
    TOTAL SALES 2,64,100

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 4,800
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 4,800
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 10, 2023

    COTTON MARKET HAD A BUSY WEEK

    • Outside Markets Had a Mixed Week
    • Export Sales Report Showed Highest Level of Sales for Marketing Year
    • WASDE Held Few Surprises

    The past week was a busy week in the cotton market, with many noteworthy fundamental factors taking place. Futures went into the weekend pressured from a strong jobs report. The downward pressure, paired with geopolitical issues, continued to start the week pushing cotton futures lower for the second day.
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Short Term Cotton Prices: Expect More of the Same

    February 10, 2023

    Cotton prices weathered USDA’s bearish February world supply demand report, settling the week at 85.27 cents, basis March – off 16 points on the week. December settled at 84.86 cents, off 29 points on the week. Thus, the board was flat with all contract months within some 100 points of each other. Trading volume was very heavy, but a large majority was spread treading.
Thompson on Cotton
  • Black Swans

    February 14, 2023

    Unforeseen events, often called Black Swans, can be a market’s worst nightmare. Such was the case last week when news broke of a devastating earthquake in the country of Turkey.  The heaviest destruction centered around an area highly involved in cotton commerce. Thus, fearing an impact on world trade, the market reacted as one might expect, selling off over 200 points.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 2,17,000
    Upland Shipments 1,86,400
    Net Pima Sales 2,000
    Pima Shipments 6,900
    TOTAL SALES 2,19,000

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 23,900
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 23,900
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 17, 2023

    COTTON MARKET HAD A CHOPPY WEEK

    • Outside Markets Pressured from Economic News
    • Export Sales Report Showed Solid Sales
    • NCC Survey Reported Producers Intend to Plant 11.4 Million Acres

    The cotton market had a choppy week, trading within a tight range before falling to the lower end of prices that have been present the past few months. Although wide trading ranges were present day-to-day, cotton futures settled relatively unchanged until Wednesday.
Cleveland on Cotton
  • U.S. Economy Is Squeezing the Cotton Market

    February 19, 2023
    By Dr. O.A. Cleveland

    It was bound to happen. So says economics, the first course. Once it was Guns or Butter. Today it is Congressional Mandated Gifts versus Guns and Butter. Past drunken spending and giveaways by Congress have caught up with the U.S.
Thompson On Cotton
  • An Economy Reluctant To Change

    February 21, 2023
    By Jeff Thompson, Autauga Quality Cotton

    Last week saw cotton prices suffer their worst decline since October 24, 2022.  Giving up four cents to settle Friday at 81.50, May futures is very near falling through its long-standing support.  For seventy-one consecutive trading sessions, it has only closed below 80 cents four times the last of which was early December, 2022.  Monday’s market holiday is much needed as hopefully cooler heads will prevail when trading resumes.  
U. S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 4,25,300
    Upland Shipments 1,93,600
    Net Pima Sales 1,400
    Pima Shipments 3,900
    TOTAL SALES 4,26,700

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 11,900
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 11,900
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 24, 2023

    MAY FUTURES RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEK

    • Outside Markets Wavered from Economic News
    • Export Sales Report Showed Marketing Year High
    • USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Initial Forecast Showed 10.90 million Planted Acres
Cleveland on Cotton
  • Weather Already Driving 2023 Cotton Prices

    February 26, 2023

    The cotton market attempted to demonstrate a bit of life at week’s end as prices rallied 200-300 points to end the week. Yet, settlement prices were still below 85 cents, ranging from 84.90 in the old crop May contract to 84.32 in the new crop December contract. Thus, the Board remained flat, suggesting the market views the value of cotton today versus the value of cotton in December to be essentially equal.
Thompson On Cotton 27-Feb-2023
  • Watching Paint Dry

    For most of last week, watching cotton trade was akin to watching paint dry. That was until Friday when strong fundamentals prodded bullish traders into action. Posting triple-digit gains, May futures closed at 84.90 while new crop futures trailed along settling at 84.32. This marked the fourth consecutive day of higher closes, something not seen in two months. Though still in a tight trading range, it has moved off the bottom where it was nervously near falling below long-standing support.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 1,70,600
    Upland Shipments 2,07,700
    Net Pima Sales 1,200
    Pima Shipments 3,000
    TOTAL SALES 1,71,800

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 97,200
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 97,200
Cleveland on Cotton 03-Mar-2023
  • Cotton Price Rallies Capped: Stuck in the Mid-80s

    Cotton trading proved to be dull during the week as demand remained exceedingly difficult to come by. Mills complained loudly of poor margins and backed off making final purchases. However, inquiries were brisk on several nights. Yet, the recently established near term price resistance at 85 cents capped any attempted to rally. All contracts settled the week under that resistance point, except the expiring March which had only seven open contracts going into Friday’s trading.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly 03-Mar-2023
  • MAY FUTURES HAVE ANOTHER CHOPPY WEEK

    • Outside Markets Finished February in the Red
    • Export Sales Report Showed Solid Sales
    • Drought Continues to Plague Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas

    The past week has proven to be another week of choppy trading with cotton prices trading within the ever-present range of low to mid-80s. Despite hawkish macroeconomic data on Friday, cotton prices rallied going into the weekend, having strong export sales to thank for the boost.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET HIGHER AHEAD OF MID-WEEK WASDE RELEASE

    Mar 06, 2023

    The May contract gave back 73 points on the week, and 292 points for the month finishing at 84.17, with the Mar – May spread weakening to (62).  Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be incorrect.  However, we recommended no trading bias on the week.  The market has commenced WASDE week higher.
USDA-WASDE
  • Mar-2023

    COTTON: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts are unchanged relative to last month. The projected marketing year average price received by producers is also unchanged at 83 cents per pound.

    The global 2022/23 cotton supply and demand forecasts this month include lower consumption and trade, and higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks are almost 900,000 bales higher as historical consumption estimates for China and Uzbekistan are updated to align with data from official and other sources.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 1,14,600
    Upland Shipments 2,87,500
    Net Pima Sales 3,800
    Pima Shipments 2,900
    TOTAL SALES 1,18,400

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales -68,300
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL -68,300
Thompson on Cotton 09-Mar-2023
  • The Coil Tightens

    March 9, 2023

    Coming into the week there was hope of a follow-through on the previous week’s strong finish. Failing to do so, despite some mid-week price action, it traded all but unchanged. May futures did hit a high of 86.25 before closing at 84.17, down 73 points. In tow, new crop futures settled at 84.26 down only six points. Renewed grower selling, disappointing export sales, and beleaguered economic news stifled any chance of the market moving higher.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MARCH 10, 2023

    COTTON MARKET PRESSURED BY OUTSIDE MARKETS

    • Major Indexes had Wobbly Week
    • Export Sales Weaker for the Week Ending March 2
    • WASDE Left U.S. Side of Balance Sheet Unchanged
    • Drought Conditions Prevail Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas
Cleveland on Cotton 10-Mar-2023
  • Quoting the famous LSU alumnus: “It’s the economy stupid.”

    The writing was on the wall. The Chinese market was down sharply, the FED was bearish the economy, USDA was bearish cotton, and CFTC on-call report was bearish. Those that missed the market blamed the FED instead of the mirror. I have blamed the FED before, USDA too, and all the other acronyms. The FED is only attempting to fix the disaster created by Congressional spending. Blame should go to the other acronyms, I, ME, and YOU.
ROSE ON COTTON 13-Mar-2023
  • COTTON MARKET CRASHES ON RECESSION FEARS

    The May contract crashed last week, giving up 599 points to finish at 78.18, well below the lower end of the long-term trading range. The market finished limit -down on Friday, and the Mar – May spread weakened to (76). Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be incorrect. However, we recommended no trading bias on the week due to the release of the Mar WASDE report.
Thompson On Cotton 14-Mar-2023
  • The Straw That Broke The Camel’s Back

    The seemingly inevitable occurred this past week as cotton prices fell below 80 cents for the first time since November 2, 2022. For over four months support at this level held firm amid mounting negative influences. Last week proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back as the market was bombarded by a host of discouraging data.
U. S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 2,25,600
    Upland Shipments 2,73,900
    Net Pima Sales 7,600
    Pima Shipments 1,500
    TOTAL SALES 2,33,200

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 12,800
    Net Pima Sales 00
    TOTAL 12,800
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly 17-Mar-2023
  • COTTON FUTURES FOLLOWED VOLATILE OUTSIDE MARKETS

    • Turmoil in Bank Sector Put Pressure on Major Indexes
    • Strong Export Sales and Shipments Reported for Week Ending March 9
    • Drought Conditions Unchanged Across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas

    Cotton futures had a volatile week, closely following the path of outside markets, the banking sector in particular. A hot jobs report on Friday weighed on the market, sending cotton limit down going into the weekend and having the lowest close since November.
ROSE ON COTTON 20-Mar-2023
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTER EARLY WEEK REBOUND

    Louis W. Rose IV and Barry B. Bean

    The May contract gave up 35 points on the week, finishing at 77.83.  The market finished limit -down on Friday, and the Mar – May spread strengthened to (61).  Last week, our models predicted a finish on the week that was to be near-unchanged to higher Vs the previous week’s finish, which proved to be correct.  May is little changed to start the new week.
Cleveland on Cotton 17-Mar-2023
  • Cotton Bears in Control

    You really do not want to read this. I know you don’t.

    This bear is a bit bigger and meaner than thought just two weeks ago. There is a very bright future for cotton. Yet first, the market will suffer through an even more bearish cycle than the present one. Sadly enough, the cotton market is preforming just as it had advertised. Yes, it is searching for a bottom and that should be close, but there are no horseshoes in this ring. The probabilities suggest another 3-4 cents lower.
U. S. EXPORT SALES
  • 2022-2023
    Net Upland Sales 3,10,300
    Upland Shipments 2,72,500
    Net Pima Sales 16,900
    Pima Shipments 7,100
    TOTAL SALES 3,27,200

    2023-2024
    Net Upland Sales 21,300
    Net Pima Sales 400
    TOTAL 21,700
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly 24-Mar-2023
  • COTTON FUTURES STRUGGLED TO FIND SUPPORT

    • Financial Markets Had Another Volatile Week
    • Cotton Market Shrugged Off Strong Export Sales Report
    • No Substantial Moisture in the Forecast for West Texas

    Cotton futures struggled to find support this week while outside markets continued to weigh on prices. May futures dropped below 80.00 cents per pound last week and were unsuccessful when trying to break out of the upper-70s trading range at present.
Cleveland on Cotton 24-Mar-2023
  • Cotton is a Calling

    We are getting ready for the third consecutive week with essentially all cotton contracts below 80 cents. In fact, 80 cents is in the rear view mirror. Prices were hammered all week, the result of domestic and international economic news. U.S. congressional spending has essentially blown the markets out of the water. The economy is six months into an eighteen—twenty-four month fix.