Market Reports
China Cotton Auction FINAL
  • 12-March-2018 To 30-Sept-2018

    METRIC TONNES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 5,256,286
    Cumulative Sales 2,510,279
    Remaining Stock 2,746,007

    BALES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 24,142,123
    Cumulative Sales 11,529,712
    Remaining Stock 2,612,411
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
  • Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA

    Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
Brazil: More cotton acreage is being planted
  • Shifting Corn Acres to Cotton

    While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.

    Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
DTN Cotton Close 26-Feb-2021
  • Early Losses for a Low End

    The cotton market finished the day moderately lower after its massive limit-down melt Thursday. Technically, the market was in grave overbought territory given it had just traded a 2 and 1/2 year high. Also bearishly influencing cotton down was a collapse in copper, lumber, gold and Chicago Grains.
Cotton Indices and Spot Rate As on 23-Feb-2021
  • Brazil Cotton Index 91.03 +1.47%

    US Upland Spot Rate 87.78 +0.26

    Cotlook A Index 97.35 +1.75

    MCX Spot Rate 21,830 +80

    China Cotton Index
    As on 24-Feb-2021

    CC Index 3128 16432 +159
    CC Index 2127 15466 +109
    CC Index 2129 16699 +182
Exchange Stock Position
  • MCX Cotton As on 18-Feb-2021

    Total Utilized Capacity =2,11,825 Bales
    Eligible for Exchange Delivery = 1,76,775
    Quantity in Process = 31,275
    Rejected Stocks = 3,775 Bales

    NCDEX KHAL As on 18-Feb-2021

    Cotton Seed Oil Cake Stock
    Unencumbered = 76,804 MT
    Pledged = 7,487 MT
    QTY in Process = 715 MT
USDA Prospective Plantings
  • USDA Planting Intention

    US All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

    Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018.

    American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.
Indian Raw Cotton Export-Import 2018-19
  • INDIAN COTTON EXPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    6,63,386 Tones
    39,02,271 Bales of 170 Kg

    INDIAN COTTON IMPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    1,01,072 Tones
    5,94,541 Bales of 170 Kg

China Cotton Auction
  • From May 5 to Sep 27, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 979,100 tons, and the turnover rate was 85.94%.
USDA -World Markets and Trade
  • China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position
    as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
India's Cotton Textiles Export Update for FY (April – June) 2019-20
  • India’s Cotton Textiles Exports

    Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.

    In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
USDA - Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook

    U.S. Cotton Product Trade Increasing in 2019

    The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Highlights

    Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29 million 480 lb. bales (37.1 million 170-kilogram bales/6.3 MMT) with a planting area of 12.7 million hectares. MY 2019/20 mill consumption remains weak as mills accumulate greater cotton yarn stocks due to poor demand. Export prospects have diminished while imports are expected to remain stable as they are price competitive against domestic supplies.
US Export Sales Summary
  • 01-Aug-2019 To 22-Aug-2019

    2019-2020

    COMMITMENTS
    PIMA 1,53,645
    UPLAND 80,84,753
    TOTAL 82,38,398

    SHIPMENTS
    PIMA 29,297
    UPLAND 8,61,924
    TOTAL 8,91,221

    2020-2021 SALES

    UPLAND 4,63,124
ICAC - Executive Summary Dec-2019
  • Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:

    Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency

    Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
ICE Cotton Update 26-Feb-2021
  • ICE Cotton extends declines on weakness in grains, equities

    ICE cotton futures slipped on Friday as a dip in equity and grain markets spilled over to the natural fiber, but hopes for stronger demand and tighter supplies put prices on course for a ninth straight monthly gain.

    Cotton contracts for May fell 0.74 cent, or 0.8%, to 88.95 cents per lb, by 12:49 P.M ET (1749 GMT). It traded within a range of 87.28 and 89.63 cents a lb.
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
  • Executive Cotton Update - February 2020

    Macroeconomic Overview:  The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019.  Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%.  For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.    

NCC survey
  • U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020

    U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

USDA - WASDE
  • Aug-2020

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton outlook includes higher beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks, and a decline in consumption. Production for the 2020 crop is raised 3 percent to 18.1 million bales, on NASS’s first survey-based production forecast. The survey indicates lower harvested area and higher yield compared with last month’s expectations.  Abandonment is expected to rise to 24 percent—compared with 16 percent in 2019.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter August-2020
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Movement in benchmark prices was mixed over the past month.

    The NY December futures contract moved lower (to below 60 cents/lb in late July) and then higher (near 65 cents/lb in early August) over the past month. Current values (63 cents/lb) are nearly even with those from one month ago.

Jernigan Global Weekly 24-Aug-2020
  • 1. US BIG BOX RETAILERS’ SALES SURGE WHILE APPAREL RETAILERS SUFFER

    2. BAD NEWS FOR COTTON AS ENVIRONMENTAL MESSAGE NOT BEING TOLD

    3. NEW SHOCKING EVIDENCE THAT PLASTIC MICRO AND NANO FIBERS ACCUMULATE IN HUMAN ORGANS

    4. PAKISTAN TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORTS RETURN TO GROWTH

    5. WILL CHINESE DEMAND FOR AUSTRALIAN COTTON REBOUND IN 2020/2021?
Shurley on Cotton
  • A Run We’ve Waited For

    August 25, 2020

    Dec20 futures knocked on the door of 66 cents (closed at 65.82 cents per lb) today—the highest daily close in 6 months. Dec gained 1.43 cents last week on weather concerns and a good export report and gained another 1.54 cents today.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 20-08-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,56,600
    Upland Shipments 2,77,500
    Net Pima Sales 12,600
    Pima Shipments 10,200
    TOTAL SALES 1,69,200

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 7,900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 7,900
Plexus Market Comments 27 Aug
  • So where do we go from here?

    Two tropical systems caused the market to trade in typical ‘buy the rumor – sell the fact’ fashion this week, and now that the storms are gone without inflicting much harm, we might see prices pull back some more from here.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • With China’s Realignment, Better Times Ahead?

    August 28, 2020

    Flip Flop!! The opening sentence last week was, “The Big Bear.” Finally, I am happy again. The Big Bull.

    Prices are going up and 2021 plantings are going up. While near-term fundamentals remain bearish, a bull beginning to grow, and he will reach maturity.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • AUGUST 28, 2020

    FUTURES RALLIED TO FRESH SIX-MONTH HIGH THIS WEEK

    • Continuing Jobless Claims Fell About 300,000 to 14.5 Million
    • Texas and Oklahoma Crop Conditions Slipped Sharply This Week
    • Assessing Damage from Hurricane Laura

    Futures rallied to a fresh six-month high this week. Last Friday’s trading range was one of the smallest ranges in several weeks, but Monday made up for it. December futures surged as the market grappled with the possibility of two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET SETTLES HIGHER ON WEEK, BUT HURRICANES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER “BUY-THE-RUMOR, SELL-THE-FACT” EVENT

    August 31, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract picked up 80 points for the week ending Aug 28, finishing at 65.08 even as the contract breached the 66.00 level over the course of the week. The Dec – Mar switch was strengthened a bit at (85).
Thompson On Cotton
  • China Commodity Buying Works Against Cotton

    August 31, 2020

    Growers were greeted this past week with an excellent pricing opportunity, whether it was for old crop or those looking to forward price new crop. Following a jump in the LDP to 340 points, the December futures contract closed above 66 cents on Tuesday before ending the week at 65.08.
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Changes in Supply and Demand Estimates (from 17 August 2020)

    Limited Cotton Recovery within Pandemic: Production and Stock Levels High, Slow Consumption Growth  

    Even as the most stringent containment measures begin to be lifted, the opportunity for economic recovery may not relieve current market uncertainty. Countries vary in their ability to flatten the contagion curve and the fiscal space to mitigate the pandemic associated recession.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 27-08-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,31,500
    Upland Shipments 2,73,900
    Net Pima Sales 17,300
    Pima Shipments 12,100
    TOTAL SALES 1,48,800

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
Plexus Market Comments 03 Sep
  • So where do we go from here?

    Spec and index fund buying has been propping the market up, but trade selling has capped the rally near 66 cents and forced a retreat. With outside markets looking shaky at the moment, we don’t expect specs to chase cotton prices higher at this point.

    Support is most likely going to come from scale-down fixation buying, but this could change if outside markets were to switch into ‘risk off’ mode.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Again Pushing 66 Cents

    September 4, 2020

    Once again, cotton is pushing 66 cents. Prices (Dec futures) have not been able to successfully break (close above) 66 cents although trying a few times recently. Dec gained 58 points last week and thus far is up another 148 points this week (thru Tuesday, September 1)—closing at 66.34 cents today.

    Prices have made a steady but choppy trend up since early April. August was a good month—Dec futures gaining 335 points during the month.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 4, 2020

    OPEN INTEREST SETS MOST RECENT HIGH SINCE MARCH

    • Prices Unable to Hold Gains This Week
    • Continuing Jobless Claims Decreased by 1.24 Million
    • China is Week’s Top Buyer of U.S. Cotton
    • More Rain Forecasted, but Uncertain
Thompson On Cotton
  • Where Does The Market Go From Here?

    September 7, 2020

    Active trading last week led to a great deal of price volatility. After surpassing 66 cents early, it yielded to signs economic recovery may be progressing at a slower pace than hoped.
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET SETTLES EFFECTIVELY UNCHANGED ON WEEK; SEPTEMBER WASDE RELEASE ON FRIDAY

    September 07, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 9 points for the week ending Sept 4, finishing at 64.99. The Dec – Mar switch weakened (98) but remains well below full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Is The Market Tapped Out?

    September 8, 2020

    Cotton prices are once again looking vulnerable and on an uncertain path to who knows where. Dec futures closed down 97 points today after pretty much treading water last week thanks to a good day on Friday. The market all of a sudden looks to have lost some of its upward steam. But, this is the repeating choppy pattern of the past 5 months — make a run then retreat a bit, make another run then retreat a bit, make another run then retreat a bit.
Plexus Market Comments 10 Sep
  • So where do we go from here?

    The market is still devoid of any strong selling, as index funds continue to accumulate longs and the trade is probably going to transition to a net buyer of futures once the crops are in. This leaves only speculators as strong potential sellers.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 03-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,26,700
    Upland Shipments 2,30,500
    Net Pima Sales 17,400
    Pima Shipments 10,700
    TOTAL SALES 1,44,100

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 70,400
    Net Pima Sales 700
    TOTAL 71,100
USDA - WASDE
  • WASDE - Sept-2020

    The 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly higher beginning stocks relative to last month but lower production, mill use, exports, and ending stocks. Production is lowered 1.0 million bales to 17.1 million, with a lower projection for every region. Mill use is projected 200,000 bales lower this month, but compared with its revised 2019/20 level is still expected to rise 16 percent. Exports and ending stocks are 400,000 bales lower, reflecting reduced U.S. supply and stronger foreign competition.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 11, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE UP AT END OF SHORTENED TRADING WEEK

    • Export Sales Report Continued Previous Months’ Pattern
    • USDA Cut U.S. Production Estimate in WASDE Report
    • Possible Effects of Recent Weather Front of Mind
Jernigan Global Weekly 14-Sep-2020
  • 1. US COTTON FABRIC CAPACITY AT CRITICAL LEVELS - THE FUTURE OF US COTTON CONSUMPTION DEPENDS ON IT

    2. BRAZILIAN COTTON DOMINATES ALL NON-CHINESE MARKETS

    3. MEXICO US COTTON IMPORT PURCHASES ALREADY EXCEED TOTAL SEASON IMPORT ESTIMATES

    4. INDIA CCI OFFERING PRICES HOLD FIRM

    5. CHINA RESERVE PURCHASES OF US COTTON CONTINUE
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET SETTLES EFFECTIVELY UNCHANGED FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK; SALLY CHURNING IN THE GULF

    September 14, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 18 points for the week ending Sept 11 finishing at 64.81; the Dec – Mar switch was effectively unchanged at (97). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct,
Cleveland On Cotton
  • An Upward Turn In November?

    USDA rewarded my two-week-old price flip-flop with Friday’s release of its September world supply demand report. While both world and U.S. stocks were lowered, the reductions came from the supply side of the price equation.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Demand On The Verge Of Recovery?

    September 14, 2020

    Like a prizefighter with a cast iron jaw, the cotton market has taken punch after punch in recent weeks but still have come off the ropes swinging. Since April, every 2- or 3-cent gain has been followed by a 1- or 1.5-cent decline.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Sept. Crop Numbers Should Help Prices, But…

    September 14, 2020

    Adjustments were made today that should be favorable for prices. USDA has now moved closer to what the “boots on the ground” have said along. This should help provide support for the market.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 10-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 5,19,600
    Upland Shipments 1,87,900
    Net Pima Sales 28,000
    Pima Shipments 16,500
    TOTAL SALES 5,47,600

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
Cleveland On Cotton
  • A Short-Term Opportunity Thanks To European Consumers?

    September 18, 2020

    After assessing limited damage resulting from Hurricane Sally, cotton prices eased slightly lower in Friday trading, settling the week at 65.66, basis December.

    Significant damage occurred only in south Alabama but did sweep across the entire state and into a portion of Georgia. However, the very significant Southwest Georgia crop was generally spared.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Hurricane Sally Apparently Not a Market Mover

    September 18, 2020

    I knew we were possibly in for disappointment price-wise when I read a pre-landfall news headline that said that the market was “mulling” Hurricane Sally. In other words, not sure of what the impacts, if any, might be.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 18, 2020

    FUTURES PUT IN STRONG SHOWING THIS WEEK

    • Stocks Traded in Calm, Two-Sided Fashion
    • Export Sales Report Showed Impressive New Upland and Pima Sales
    • Hurricane Sally Hit Alabama-Florida Border Coast
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET POSTS WEEKLY GAINS BUT FALTERS POST RELEASE OF BLOCKBUSTER EXPORT DATA

    September 19, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 85 points for the week ending Sept 18 finishing at 65.66, the Dec – Mar switch tightened a bit at (92). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
Jernigan Global Weekly 21-Sep-2020
  • 1. US AND CHINA’S RETAIL APPAREL MARKETS’ DIFFERENCES NARROW AS US WEAKNESS CONTINUES

    2. SHIPMENTS OF 2020 BRAZILIAN CROP INCREASING ALONG WITH NEW CFR BASIS PRESSURE

    3. US CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION ISSUES LIMITED WITHHOLD ORDERS ON XINJIANG COTTON TEXTILES

    4. US COTTON CROP SHRINKS FURTHER AS THE CHALLENGES OF 2020 NEVER END

    5. CHINA PURCHASES OF US GRAINS WERE AGAIN ROBUST LAST WEEK, ALONG WITH LARGE SALE OF US COTTON
Thompson On Cotton
  • A Faint Uptrend, Maybe to 70 Cents

    September 20, 2020

    Let me first extend our thoughts and prayers to all those impacted by Hurricane Sally. This intense storm wrecked the lives of many as it slammed into the Gulf Coast this past week, slowly making its way through the Southeast and dropping copious amounts of rain over half a million acres of cotton that was only weeks from harvest was in its path.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 17-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 92,700
    Upland Shipments 2,81,900
    Net Pima Sales 18,500
    Pima Shipments 12,900
    TOTAL SALES 1,11,200

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 50,600
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 50,600
Plexus Market Comments 24 Sep
  • So where do we go from here?

    By being so bearish on the market – justifiably so if we look at the global balance sheet – mills have been holding off on fixations, which paradoxically has created a lot of support for the futures market. In other words, the trade is standing in its own way, making it very difficult for prices to move lower.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Fewer Acres In 2021?

    September 25, 2020

    As expected, the market did back-and-fill all week, easing above 66 cents after attempting to move marginally below 65 cents. Generally, business was slow, i.e., reflecting a somewhat stale market.

    Chinese exports surfaced, but not in the numbers suggested by the commitment of traders report (COT). Additional sales to China do exist and will get reported, but the question remains will the volume push 400,000 bales and/or will the final number be closer to a million bales by the end December?
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • SEPTEMBER 25, 2020

    TRADING VOLUME LOW THIS WEEK AS PRICES CONFINED TO TIGHT RANGE

    • Rough Week in Stock Market
    • Net New Sales for the Week Totaled 92,700 Upland Bales
    • Crop Progress Report Showed Modest Decline in Southeast Conditions
Shurley on Cotton
  • Trade, Exports Fragile Amid Production Uncertainties

    September 25, 2020

    The 2020 US crop is projected at 17.06 million bales—the September estimate being revised down 1 million bales from the August estimate. That 17.06 million potential crop has, since the September numbers were determined, been impacted (for the good or bad is yet to be determined) by Hurricane Sally and Tropical Storm Beta. It is also still in question whether the September number fully captured the net effect of Hurricanes Marco and Laura.
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AS SEASONAL TREND TURNS BEARISH

    September 26, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract picked up 29 points for the week ending Sept 25, finishing at 65.95; the Dec – Mar switch tightened significantly at (71). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 28-Sep-2020
  • 1. US HIGH GRADE SUPPLIES TIGHTEN FOLLOWING RECORD RESERVE PURCHASES AND UNTIMELY RAINS ON NEW CROP

    2. ROAD TO RECOVERY 2020/2021 CHINESE COTTON DEMAND EXPANDING WITH ACTIVE XINJIANG & IMPORT INTEREST

    3. INDIA’S NEW CROP MOVEMENT BEGINS; WILL CCI EXPANDED BUYING MAINTAIN PRICES?

    4. FIRST XINJIANG AND NOW TIBET FORCED LABOR GANGS DOCUMENTED

    5. PAKISTAN TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORTS APPEAR TO BE STABILIZING
Thompson On Cotton
  • What Will Determine Market Direction Now?

    September 28, 2020

    Following the market last week was much akin to watching paint dry. Though trading in wide ranges each day, it never failed to work its way back to nearly unchanged, gaining a mere 29 points on the week to close at 65.95.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 24-09-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,33,800
    Upland Shipments 2,18,200
    Net Pima Sales 19,500
    Pima Shipments 10,800
    TOTAL SALES 2,53,300

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 20,600
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 20,600
Plexus Market Comments 01 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    Although some consuming markets have seen a decent recovery, most of cotton’s strength has no doubt come from spec and index fund buying. The trade hasn’t helped matters by building this large unfixed on-call position, from which it is now trying to escape. For that to happen we need to see sell-side liquidity, which has been lacking so far.

Cleveland On Cotton
  • “A Big Bunch Of Cotton”

    October 2, 2020

    The market did back-and-fill all week as it likely will until USDA’s November supply demand report provides more clarity with respect to market fundamentals.

    Yet, before the market can get to USDA’s November report, it must first decipher next week’s supply/demand report, due out on October 9.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 2, 2020

    OPEN INTEREST HITS ANOTHER NEW HIGH SINCE FEBRUARY

    • Thursday’s Price Range Tightest in Six Weeks
    • U.S. Dollar Depreciated This Week
    • Demand for U.S. Cotton is Broadening
    • Traders Monitor Harvest Pace and WASDE Release Next Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK NEAR UNCHANGED, BUMPER CROP IN CHINA

    October 03, 2020

    ICE Dec cotton gave up 13 points for the week ending Oct 2, finishing at 65.82; the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (81), which is still well short of full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct. The Dec contract gained 63 points for Sept, but the seasonal trend is negative for Oct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 05-Oct-2020
  • 1. XINJIANG TEXTILE AND APPPAREL PRODUCTION BASE EXPANDING BEYOND COTTON

    2. US EXPORT SALES SHOW SUCCESS OF US COTTON PROMOTION AND SUSTAINABILITY PROGRAMS

    3. XINJIANG WATER REQUIREMENTS MAY BE AT HEART OF CHINA/INDIA DISPUTE

    4. INDIA: SPOTLIGHT ON CCI AS NEW CROP PROCUREMENT BEGINS

    5. PAKISTAN MILLS ACTIVE BUYERS OF IMPORTED COTTON
Thompson On Cotton
  • Faint Hints Of Demand

    October 5, 2020

    Writing this prior to Friday’s close, I’m thinking it shouldn’t matter much since trading has been sideways for weeks. However, we awoke with news that the President and First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19.

    Not surprisingly, this has shaken all markets from the financials to the commodities. At this early hour, cotton has already dropped 90 points. Hopefully, the market’s steadfast resilience in the face of uncertainty will continue.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 01-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,78,400
    Upland Shipments 1,42,300
    Net Pima Sales 21,700
    Pima Shipments 15,800
    TOTAL SALES 2,00,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 15,000
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 15,000
Plexus Market Comments 08 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    Tomorrow should make for a lively session, as we have Hurricane Delta's landfall and we get the latest WASDE numbers. Most traders expect a friendly reaction from these events.
USDA - WASDE
  • The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show marginally lower production compared with last month. Production is lowered less than 1 percent, to 17.0 million bales. Domestic mill use, exports, and ending stocks are unchanged. At 7.2 million bales, U.S. ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected at 42 percent of use, compared with 41 percent in 2019/20. The 2020/21 season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 61.0 cents per pound, 2 cents higher than last month and slightly above the final 2019/20 price of 59.6 cents.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Fundamentals Remain Weak, 70 Cents Unlikely

    October 9, 2020

    Love the cotton market, but remember the old trading adage, Short Crops Have Long Tails. USDA’s October supply demand report was a big yawner but did suggest lower world carryover. Thus, the market found the report friendly.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 9, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES SETTLE UP 158 POINTS FOR THE WEEK

    • Export Sales Lower Than Previous Week
    • Hurricane Delta to Impact Cotton Belt
    • October Crop Production Report and WASDE Released Friday
    • Report Lowered U.S. Production 19,000 Bales
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES HIGHER ON WASDE WEEK, HURRICANE DELTA SLOWS HARVEST OPERATIONS

    October 11, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 182 points for the week ending Oct 9, finishing at 67.64; the Dec – Mar switch weakened modestly to (78). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct. However, we decided not to trade this bias ahead of the WASDE report’s release.
Thompson On Cotton
  • WASDE Pushes Market Out of 8-Month Trading Range

    October 12, 2020

    The market finally broke out of its trading range this week, reaching an eight-month high of 68.68 and closing up from its previous close of 67.49 at an all new trading level of 67.64.

    This week’s WASDE report initially dropped the market 70 points, showing lowered global stocks by 2.7 million bales. Global consumption was up two million bales while production was down 934,000 bales.
Shurley on Cotton
  • The Long March to 68 – Now What?

    October 12, 2020

    This week, cotton prices inched ever closer to the 68 cents area—breaking above the 65 to 67 cents range that prices have been in for the better part of last month. The move closer to 68 was made on expected crop damage from Hurricane Delta and anticipation that today’s USDA projections for October would show an already reduced US crop compared to the September numbers.
Plexus Market Comments 15 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    It is no longer just the futures market that is hot, as cash prices have been rallying due to pent-up demand lately. Whether this is just some temporary strength tied to the upcoming Christmas season or something longer-lasting remains to be seen.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 08-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 98,900
    Upland Shipments 1,92,600
    Net Pima Sales 17,800
    Pima Shipments 12,700
    TOTAL SALES 1,16,700

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 13,200
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 13,200
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Price Your Crop

    October 16, 2020

    My Thursday evening search turned up price ideas of 70 cents, 72 cents, 73 cents, 75 cents and – finally – 80 cents. Rightfully so, everyone should have an idea about cotton prices.

    The most frequent response was that “it’s over,” meaning the price rally has ended.  The current price rally has been persistent, establishing higher and higher lows dating back to April 2.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 16, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES REACH HIGHEST PRICE SINCE JANUARY

    • Continuing Jobless Claims Continue to Fall
    • Export Sales Report Showed Shipments Continue at Strong Pace
    • Texas Crop 36% Harvest
    • Crop Progress and Conditions Focus Going Forward
Jernigan Global Weekly 19-Oct-2020
  • 1. CHINA FIBER/TEXTILE MARKETS SURGE IN POST HOLIDAY PERIOD MOVING GLOBAL PRICES HIGHER

    2. 2020/2021 XINJIANG CROP HAS MAJOR QUALITY PROBLEM

    3. CHINESE COTTON YARN PRICES ADVANCED SHAPLY

    4. CHINA’S PRICE SURGE TRIGGERS WIDESPREAD OFFTAKE OF BONDED WAREHOUSE STOCKS & IMPORTED COTTON YARNS

    5. TURKEY INCREASES APPAREL AND TEXTILE EXPORTS IN SEPTEMBER
Shurley on Cotton
  • A Correction Seems Likely As Prices Bump Up
    October 18, 2020

    Cotton is pushing toward 70 cents, presenting pricing and risk management opportunities for growers that I’m sure most of us never thought we would see for this crop. It’s decision time. If not priced already, this move certainly seems a good opportunity to get going or add to previous sales.

    December futures closed just short of 70 cents on Friday (69.92) —gaining 2.28 cents for the week and, so far, over 4 cents this month. Prices are now the highest in 8 months.
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET BREACHES 70.00 ON INCREASED BUSINESS PROSPECTS FROM CHINA, BUT US-CHINA TENSIONS INCREASING

    October 18, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 228 points for the week ending Oct 16 (410 over the fortnight), finishing at 69.92; the Dec – Mar switch strengthened to (64), well below full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Potential For Mid-70s But Uncertainty Lingers
    October 19, 2020

    Like a restless bull trying to find a hole in the fence, the cotton market repeatedly challenged 70 cents in every trading session last week.

    Like a sturdy fence, each attempt was thwarted, most likely by harvest selling. But have faith, for those of us who’ve worked cattle for any length of time will attest that given enough lee way, a determined bull will most often win over.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 15-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,27,800
    Upland Shipments 1,94,100
    Net Pima Sales 29,600
    Pima Shipments 7,400
    TOTAL SALES 2,57,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 21,300
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 21,300
Plexus Market Comments 22 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    The bullish trend accelerated this week and the trade has its back to the wall. The trade net short position is probably at over 15.0 million bales by now and we wonder much longer it will be able to fight this trend.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Can The Bull Maintain His Pace?

    October 23, 2020

    Cotton prices continue to ride the uptrend and have now surpassed the initial price goal I earlier established. Yet, the uptrend remains in play and prices are only in the middle of the current trading channel.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Roller Coaster Recovery Continues

    October 23, 2020

    Cotton prices (nearby December futures) have now trekked into territory that no one thought possible a few months ago. Not now, not this soon.

    December futures now approaches 72 cents and has thus far gained 2.02 cents for the week, 6.15 cents for the month of October, and 21.53 cents since the horrible low back on April 1. Talk is now already circulating of 80 cents.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 23, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES RALLY, WEATHER REMAINS A CENTRAL CONCERN

    • December Futures Extend Previous Week’s Winning Streak
    • Stimulus Talks Rattle Investors
    • U.S. Export Sales and Shipments on Target to Hit USDA 2020/21 Forecast
    • Cotton Belt Harvest Behind Average Five-Year Pace
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES TO RALLY, ANOTHER STORM BREWING IN THE GULF

    October 24, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gained 137 points for the week ending Oct 23 (547 over the last three weeks), finishing at 71.29 as the Dec – Mar switch strengthened to only (58). Still, Dec finished 84 points off the intraweek high of 72.13. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
Jernigan Global Weekly 26-Oct-2020
  • 1. COLLAPSE OF NEW YORK CITY AT HEART OF US RETAIL APPAREL SALES WEAKNESS

    2. CHINA’S DOMESTIC COTTON PRICES FIND RESISTANCE AT 15,000 RMB/TON

    3. INDIAN SHANKAR-6 EXGIN PRICE HITS 70 CENTS FOR FIRST TIME IN 2020/2021

    4. HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM MOVES INTO AUSTRALIAN COTTON BELT

    5. US HARVEST ADVANCES; FOB BASIS FIRMS
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market Drivers – More Bullish Than Bearish

    October 26, 2020

    In the quest to return to its pre-Covid high, the market took another giant, although worrisome, step last week.

    Giant in that the continuing rally garnering another couple cents, trading over 72 cents at one point.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 22-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,88,700
    Upland Shipments 2,28,800
    Net Pima Sales 32,700
    Pima Shipments 15,900
    TOTAL SALES 3,21,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 900
Plexus Market Comments 29 Oct
  • So where do we go from here?

    The next two weeks will likely be quite volatile, because we are dealing with the US elections, the index fund roll, December fixations, options expiration and another WASDE report. All that with spec longs and trade shorts sitting on their largest positions in two years.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • At This Point, A “70-Cent Guy”

    October 30, 2020

    The Trick-or-Treaters came calling on the cotton market this week and – as advertised all last week – ended the phenomenal two-week rally in cotton prices. While all the bullish momentum has not been lost, cotton prices were due for the gut check that began on Wednesday and concluded on Friday.

    Prices hit a low of 69.08 cents, basis December, as fundamental and phycological factors forged the decline. Friday saw the market sink to a low of 68.37, in line with expectations.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Much Hinges On Final Crop Size

    October 30, 2020

    The trend to even higher prices may not be over, but it has hit a snag — as expected.

    After closing at over 72 cents earlier on Monday this week, December futures has now declined 3 consecutive days. Dec closed below 70 cents today for the first time since October 16—in almost 2 weeks.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • OCTOBER 30, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES RALLY, WEATHER REMAINS A CENTRAL CONCERN

    • December Futures Extend Previous Week’s Winning Streak
    • Stimulus Talks Rattle Investors
    • U.S. Export Sales and Shipments on Target to Hit USDA 2020/21 Forecast
    • Cotton Belt Harvest Behind Average Five-Year Pace
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET MOVES BACK BELOW 70.00; US ELECTIONS LOOM LARGE AS INVESTORS MOVE TO SIDELINES

    October 30, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 237 points for the week ending Oct 30, finishing at 68.92 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (86). Dec still managed a 313-point gain for Oct. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 26th Oct 2020 to 31th Oct 2020

    • The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 237 points for the week ending Oct 30, finishing at 68.92 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (86). After touching high of 72.63 market sharply turned downside. ICE Dec contract lost 237 point during the week but still managed 313 points monthly gain for Oct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 02-Nov-2020
  • 1. CHINA COTTON FIBER AND YARN IMPORTS CONTINUE TO EXPAND BOOSTING TRADE LEVELS

    2. TURKISH LIRA PLUNGES TO NEW RECORD LOW AMID EXPANDING POLICY ISSUES

    3. US URBAN UNREST A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR RETAIL APPAREL

    4. AUSTRALIAN RAINS BOOST CROP PROSPECTS: CFR BASIS STEADY

    5. CHINA ELS COTTON SUBSIDY INCREASES TO 175 CENTS TARGET PRICE
Thompson On Cotton
  • Managing Risk Is The Key, And We Have Plenty To Go Around

    November 1, 2020

    The ghosts and goblins of Halloween came early last week. In just a week’s time we experienced:

    • A hard freeze in the Southwest.
    • Another hurricane in the Southeast.
    • An uptick in Covid cases around the globe, and a stock market decline the likes of which not seen since last March.
    • Along with the same Presidential campaign noise we’ve been experiencing the past several months.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 29-10-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,15,500
    Upland Shipments 2,70,000
    Net Pima Sales 16,900
    Pima Shipments 21,900
    TOTAL SALES 1,32,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 55,700
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 55,700
Plexus Market Comments 05 Nov
  • So where do we go from here?

    The recent correction has alleviated ‘overbought’ conditions and the fact the we held above critical support will probably keep most speculators on board as we head into the roll period and it may even bring in some new buying.

    The trade finally got the price break it was hoping for, which allowed it to reduce its December exposure to a more manageable level. The upcoming roll period should provide the trade with the necessary liquidity to square away most of the remaining Dec positions.

Cleveland On Cotton
  • The Market Lingers Behind The 8 Ball

    November 6, 2020

    Cotton futures continued their second week of back-and-fill action as prices remained entrenched within the well-defined trading channel and holding within the narrow five-cent, 67.50-72.50 cent trading range.

    However, now that peak harvest has passed, the market adage, “Short crop have long tails,” continues to live within the trading ring. The trading range should hold as the market moves into next week’s (November 10) USDA world supply demand report.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Multiple Factors Contributing to Market Stability

    November 6, 2020

    After making a long upward run and recently peaking at over 72 cents—the highest price in 9 months (since January), the market (Dec futures) declined and tested support at 68. Prices thus far this week have gained back to the 70 cent area.

    After the peak at roughly 72, the often-voiced reasons for the decline or “correction” were “profit taking”, “technical considerations”, and jitters over the decline in the stock market.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 6, 2020

    MARKET EFFECTED WHILE ELECTION RESULTS REMAIN UNKNOWN

    • Next U.S. President Still Unknown
    • Marketing Year First Quarter Exports at Highest Level Ever
    • WASDE and Crop Production Report Release Tuesday
Rose on Cotton
  • EARLY WEEK COTTON MARKET GAINS EVAPORATE ON WEAKNESS IN US EXPORT SALES, ELECTION RESULTS, FUND ROLLING

    November 07, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave up 30 points for the week ending Nov 6, finishing at 68.62 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened to (153), which is approaching full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 09-Nov-2020
  • 1. CONCERNS OVER APPAREL DEMAND IN EUROPE AND US PROVIDE CHALLENGES FOR ADVANCING COTTON PRICES

    2. BRAZILIAN BASIS STRENGTH CHANGES COTTON TRADE DYNAMICS

    3. BEIJING CONTINUES IN ITS ATTEMPT TO MAKE AUSTRALIA SUBMIT TO ITS WILL

    4. CHINA SUPPLY OF HIGH GRADE, LONGER STAPLE STOCKS HEADED FOR TIGHTNESS

    5. CIVIL WAR BREAKS OUT IN NEW SOURCING HOTSPOT OF ETHIOPIA
Thompson On Cotton
  • Pent Up Demand Possible?

    November 9, 2020

    After the previous week’s significant selloff, we were hoping last week’s activity would confirm this was only a needed correction in an overbought market. Early on, this appeared to be the case, with the market retracing nearly 50% of those losses. That was quite an accomplishment, considering all the outside noise, including a hotly contested presidential election, a rise in Covid cases and a host of other uncertainties.
USDA - WASDE
  • November-2020

    This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton estimates are virtually unchanged from October. The U.S. production forecast is marginally higher, at 17.1 million bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. U.S. ending stocks remain at 7.2 million bales and, at 42 percent of use, would be the highest stocks-to-use ratio since 2007/08.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Production Increase Surprises Market

    November 11, 2020

    Tuesday’s USDA crop production and supply/demand estimates were not what was expected. The market moved down for the day but, frankly, we can take relief that price did not decline even more than it did. We’ll have to wait and see what “follow through” action takes place Wednesday.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter November-2020
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    All international benchmark prices increased over the past month.

    The NY December futures contract climbed from 67 to as high as 72 cents/lb near the end of October.  More recently, prices eased back to 70 cents/lb.
    Cotlook’s A Index rose from 73 to 76 cents/lb over the past month.
Plexus Market Comments 12 Nov
  • So where do we go from here?

    The roll period is behind us and tomorrow December options will expire. This has provided the market with a sea of liquidity and allowed traders to sort out their positions.

    Interestingly, while Dec open interest has dropped from 103k to 55k over the last five sessions (not including what happened today), overall open interest has only lost about 6k so far and was still at 237k as of this morning.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 05-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,36,800
    Upland Shipments 2,93,000
    Net Pima Sales 20,400
    Pima Shipments 21,700
    TOTAL SALES 2,57,200

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 14,800
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 14,800
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Playing With The Numbers (And It’s Not Fun)

    November 13, 2020

    Friday the 13th. Cotton is going to be a tough sell in 2021-22 and I desperately hate to write that, much less even think it. Again, I find myself wishing and hoping my analysis will be on the wrong side of history.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 13, 2020

    WEEKLY REPORTS SHOCK TRADERS, COVID-19 VACCINE GOOD NEWS

    • Pfizer-BioNTech COVID Vaccine to be 90% Effective
    • Increase in U.S. Export Sales
    • USDA Cotton Production Estimate Unexpectedly Large
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 12-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,31,400
    Upland Shipments 2,77,300
    Net Pima Sales 4,600
    Pima Shipments 19,100
    TOTAL SALES 1,36,000

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Market Is Fighting The Upward Trend

    November 20, 2020

    Cotton survived Friday the 13th trading and spent most of the week in the 69-70 cent trading range in very static trading, almost fearful to trade in any direction.

    Yet, the market reversed itself going into the weekly close and prices climbed above 71 cents, only to close just below that mark. The idea of a somewhat friendlier Chinese market sat heavy over the ICE contract all day and was the primary reason for the New York contract to instantly move higher at the close.
Plexus Market Comments 19 Nov
  • So where do we go from here?

    The December liquidation failed to move the market despite the certified stock growing to 123k bales. With just 8.4k contracts remaining open before today’s session, December is now for all practical purposes history and whatever happens in the notice period is at best of some psychological value.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Market Flat, Awaits Next Event

    November 20, 2020

    Pricing opportunities have now moved to basis the March futures. So, you may notice the futures look to be a bit higher. That’s due to the “spread” between Dec and March. At present, March is about 2.3 cents higher than expiring December.

    Also, the basis has improved somewhat from where we were about a month ago. According to USDA-AMS, the basis quoted is currently -225 points for 31-3/34 and even the March futures for 31-3/35. This is about 50 points better than a month ago.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 20, 2020

    *MARCH FUTURES SETTLE UP FOR WEEK, MORE COVID VACCINE NEWS

    • More COVID-19 Vaccine Good News
    • Vietnam Largest U.S. Export Buyer
    • Cotton Harvest Pace Ahead of Last Year
Jernigan Global Weekly 23-Nov-2020
  • 1. CHINA’S RETAIL APPAREL SALES OUTPACE THE REST OF THE WORLD

    2. HOW SECURE IS YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN? UNREST EXPANDS IN ETHIOPIA, VIRUS INFECTION OF MALAYSIA PPE FACTORIES

    3. US POLICY CONCERNS WILL IMPACT US COTTON ACREAGE IN 2021/2022

    4. AUSTRALIAN CFR BASIS UNDERVALUED AS CHINA ISSUES NEW THREATS

    5. WORRIES EXPAND OVER 2021 BRAZIL COTTON CROP AS DRYNESS DISRUPTS SOYBEAN SEASON
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market Movements Under The Direction Of News Events

    November 22, 2020

    Both December and March futures opened and closed last week on a positive note. Triple-digit gains on Monday were in response to another promising Covid vaccine trial, while Friday’s similar advance was fueled by a host of favorable technical indicators.

    For the week, December rallied almost 2.5 cents. March, now our focus, also picked up 2.5 cents to close at 72.96.
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET SURGES ON VACCINE HOPES

    November 23, 2020

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 256 points for the week ending Nov 20, finishing at 72.96 as the Mar – May switch strengthened to (86), which is shy of full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 19-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 3,54,600
    Upland Shipments 1,83,000
    Net Pima Sales 26,900
    Pima Shipments 21,700
    TOTAL SALES 3,81,500

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 38,500
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 38,500
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • NOVEMBER 27, 2020

    RELATIVELY LIGHT TRADING VOLUME IN HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK

    • Continuing Surge of COVID-19 Infections
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average Made a New All-Time High
    • Demand Strong in Export Sales Report
    • Texas Harvest Pace Ahead of 5-Year Average
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES HOLIDAY WEEK NEAR UNCHANGED AMID VOLATILE TRADING ACTION

    November 30, 2020

    The ICE Mar cotton contract picked up 28 points for the week ending Nov 27, finishing at 73.24 as the Mar – May switch strengthened slightly to (82). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 30-Nov-2020
  • 1. SPINNERS MAINTAIN BARE COTTON INVENTORIES IN FACE OF UNCERTAIN DEMAND

    2. BRAZIL DRYNESS A SERIOUS CONCERN AS MATO GROSSO MOISTURE DEFICIT INCREASES

    3. XINJIANG TEXTILE AND APPAREL INDUSTRY EXPANDS – EXPORTS SOAR

    4. AUSTRALIAN 2021 CROP FINDS SUPPORT AS QUALITY FEARS EXPAND

    5. INDIAN ARRIVALS SURGE AS PRICES IGNITE GROWER SELLING
Thompson On Cotton
  • Seeing A Trend Toward 80 Cents?
    November 29, 2020

    Given it was a holiday week with traders’ minds likely elsewhere, there was little in the way of market expectations. Surprisingly, however, significant price swings occurred each day, with March posting a slight gain for the week closing at 73.36.
Shurley on Cotton
  • 74-Cent Potential If The Right Factors Align

    November 30, 2020

    Nearby March futures made it a see-saw ride last week and we began this week on a down note. After hitting the 74+cent level on Monday, prices moved sluggishly during the Holiday-shortened week but were then aided by a good export report on Friday.

    March closed at 73.24 cents on Friday — up 88 points for the day which helped end the week on a positive note—up 28 points for the week. The see-saw continues as March closes down 109 points at 72.15 today.
MSP Procurement 03-Feb-2021
  • Procurement operations of seed cotton (Kapas) under MSP are going on smoothly in the States of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Karnataka. Till 03.02.2021 a quantity of 90,39,092 cotton bales valuing Rs. 26,432.54 Crore has been procured benefitting 18,67,429 farmers.
ICAC Executive Summary
  • Lower Production Expected to Ease Pressure on Prices in 2020/21

    Highlights from the December 2020 Cotton This Month include

    *The global production estimate has been lowered to 24.7 million tonnes for 2020/21

    *The global consumption estimate remains steady ay 24.3 million tonnes

    *Global trade is expected to climb to 9.4 million tonnes

U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 26-11-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,77,800
    Upland Shipments 1,80,800
    Net Pima Sales 7,900
    Pima Shipments 27,600
    TOTAL SALES 2,85,700

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 21,800
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 21,800
Plexus Market Comments 03 Dec
  • So where do we go from here?

    The failed breakout attempt of last week has shown that the market is not quite ready to move higher, since there is plenty of supply in the pipeline at this point.

    However, there are also a number of supporting factors, such as a weaker dollar, lofty Chinese prices, strong soybeans and committed spec longs, which should countervail supply pressures.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • USDA’s December 10 Report – A Pivotal Point?

    December 4, 2020

    As has been long expected, the cotton market continues to work the 70- to 74-cent level, with most of the trading activity between 71 and 73 cents. December futures, with just two trading sessions remaining before expiry, slipped below 70 cents this week, suggesting the March could easily face the same fate.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 4, 2020

    COTTON FUTURES LOSE GROUND, HARVEST AHEAD OF AVERAGE PACE

    • $900 Billion Stimulus Plan Presented
    • No Slow in Exports during Thanksgiving
    • 84% of Cotton Belt Harvested
    • Crop Production and WASDE Reports Next Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER LOWER DESPITE MULTIPLE SUPPORTIVE FACTORTS

    December 06, 2020

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gave up 167 points for the week ending Dec 4, finishing at 71.57 as the Mar – May switch weakened slightly to (88). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect. Still, we did not recommend trading the model’s bias for the week.
Jernigan Global Weekly 07-Dec-2020
  • 1. TURKEY’S DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION ON TRACK TO EXPAND IN 2020/2021

    2. ARGENTINE COTTON BELT RECEIVES NEEDED RAINS/ PLANTING EXPANDS

    3. US CUSTOMS/BORDER PROTECTION ISSUES MAJOR ACTION AGAINST XINJIANG PCC COTTON

    4. BEIJING INSULTS AUSTRALIA & PM MORRISON DEMANDS APOLOGY RECENT COTTON PURCHASES IN DOUBT

    5. XINJIANG NOVEMBER CLASSING RESULTS SHOW NO IMPROVEMENT IN QUALITY
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market Pulled Between Good And Bad News
    December 7, 2020

    As a writer, I firmly believe words are meaningful. Last week’s market review is testament to this. The mere mention of 80-cent cotton drew tremendous response from readers. Not to throw cold water on this excitement, but the anticipated follow-through from the previous week’s outstanding export sales didn’t happen.

    Rather than challenge resistance at 74 cents, the market chose to hug its support closing at 71.57, down a cent and a half on the week.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 03-12-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 4,03,100
    Upland Shipments 3,23,200
    Net Pima Sales 13,000
    Pima Shipments 26,400
    TOTAL SALES 4,16,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 48,000
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 48,000
USDA WASDE Dec-2020
  • This month’s outlook for U.S. cotton includes lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Production is lowered 1.1 million bales, mainly due to a 900,000- bale reduction in Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised 400,000  bales to 15.0 million as world consumption and U.S. export sales rise. Ending stocks are 1.5 million bales lower, at 5.7 million or 33 percent of use. This stocks-to-use ratio would be 8 percentage points lower than in 2019/20, and the second highest since 2007/08.
Plexus Market Comments 10 Dec
  • So where do we go from here?

    Although today’s WASDE was for the most part ‘discounted’ by the market, it has shied away any potential sellers and set the market up for another leg to the upside.

    The next up move could be triggered by an impending breakout on the weekly chart, which still needs to be confirmed tomorrow. But if the market closes firm, we are likely going to see some new spec longs enter next week.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 11, 2020

    FUTURES RALLY AND SETTLE UP THIS WEEK

    • Futures Hit High of 74.60 Cents

    • 853,000 New Jobless Claims Filed

    • USDA Production Estimate Decreases
Rose on Cotton
  • ICE COTTON FINISHES HIGHER ON WASDE WEEK; S&D BALANCE SHEETS STILL FAR FROM BULLISH

    December 13, 2020

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 251 points for the week ending Dec 11, finishing at 74.08 as the Mar – May switch strengthened a bit to (81). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly
  • News Letter 14-Dec-2020

    1. CHINA MARKETS RECEIVE BOOST FROM NOVEMBER EXPORT PERFORMANCE RECORD TRADE SURPLUS IN NOV

    2. INDIA CROP DOUBTS REMAIN DESPITE THE HEAVY ARRIVALS

    3. PAKISTAN COTTON USE ROBUST AS DEMAND HOLDS

    4. INCREASED COTTON YARN EXPORTS TO CHINA FINALLY BOOST THAILAND COTTON USE

    5. US EXPORT MOMENTUM SUGGESTS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED EXPORTS IN 2020/2021
Shurley on Cotton
  • A Different Tone Controls the Market

    December 15, 2020

    Last week was the best week news-wise for cotton in quite a while. USDA’s monthly production estimates finally showed the lower US crop that many have long said was out there. Supply/demand projections also showed a rebound in World Use/demand.

    The nice build-up in prices, especially over the past 6 weeks, has been due to increased optimism in demand side factors. Now, we also finally have validation of a smaller than previously expected US crop and improved demand estimates to boot.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 10-12-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 4,20,900
    Upland Shipments 2,51,300
    Net Pima Sales 7,500
    Pima Shipments 23,100
    TOTAL SALES 4,28,400

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 13,800
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 13,800
Plexus Market Comments 17 Dec
  • So where do we go from here?

    The US balance sheet is starting to get tight, which makes it increasingly dangerous for the shorts to fight this bullish trend. Between export sales and domestic mill use we now have commitments of around 14 million bales, against a crop size of 15.9 million bales.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • “Finally, a Good Day to Be a Grower”

    December 18, 2020

    Wow, where is the market going? Cotton just does not want to quit. It’s finally a good day to be a cotton grower.

    Saddled by what USDA told us were abnormally high world and U.S. stocks, questionable demand, and a lackluster world economy, the cotton market was doomed to die on the vine somewhere between 67 and 74 cents. Forget that. Prices just keep climbing.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 18, 2020

    FUTURES MARKET MAKES GAINS AS HOLIDAYS APPROACH

    • Futures Made Excellent Gains This Week
    • U.S Dollar Index Falls
    • China Returns as Major Buyer
    • No Cotton Market Weekly Next Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET HAS ANOTHER BANNER WEEK, ANNUAL INDEX FIND REBALANCING AHEAD

    December 19, 2020

    ICE cotton had another banner week. The Mar contract gained 308 points for the week ending Dec 18, finishing at 77.16 while the Mar – May switch strengthened to a level well-short of full carry, (67). Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 21-Dec-2020
  • 1. US EXPORT SALES CONTINUE NEAR RECORD AS DISCOUNT DRAWS BUYERS

    2. CHINA’S DOMESTIC APPAREL SALES FAR OUTPACE THAT OF THE US IN NOVEMBER AS US RETAIL CENTERS REMAIN IN DISARRAY

    3. XINJIANG SLAVE LABOR ISSUE DRAWS LOTS OF PRESS FOR COTTON

    4. MEXICAN 2019/2020 EXPORT OFFERS NOTED; WILL THIS MARK THE END AS GOVERNMENT LIMITS GM COTTON SEED?

    5. ARGENTINE CFR EXPORT BASIS FIRMS AS RAINS CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market “Plowing Through Resistance”

    December 21, 2020

    Undeterred by an economy which seems to be hitting the brakes, the cotton market is plowing through resistance levels at a breakneck speed. Closing Friday at 77.16, it gained over three cents on the week, nearly six cents for the month, and up an astonishing 30 cents since the rally began in April.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 17-12-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 4,16,700
    Upland Shipments 2,81,200
    Net Pima Sales 30,900
    Pima Shipments 13,900
    TOTAL SALES 4,47,600

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 67,100
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 67,100
Gujcot Weekly Report
  • Market Movement from 21st Dec 2020 to 26th Dec 2020

    • Due Christmas holidays, this week was short in terms of trading days. Market crashed on Monday due to lockdown news and more spread of Covid-19 cases in Europe and also increasing numbers in USA in line with other markets. But finally recovered majority of the loss and closed the week with 96 points loss.
Jernigan Global Weekly 28-Dec-2020
  • 1. COTTON DEMAND ROBUST AS PANDEMIC CHAOS EXPANDS IN USA/EUROPE UNDER TRADE AGREEMENT US COTTON SALES TOP 2.4 BILLION

    2. CHINA HIT WITH MASSIVE ELECTRICITY SHORTAGES: WILL IT IMPACT COTTON CONSUMPTION RECOVERY? OVER 150 MILLION PEOPLE LEFT IN THE COLD

    3. BRAZIL CFR BASIS SHOWS SOME WEAKNESS NEARBY TIGHTNESS EASES

    4. CHINA ADJUSTS SLIDING SCALE IMPORT TAX FOR 2021

    5. CHINA DEMAND FOR HIGH COUNT YARNS EXPANDS/COTTON YARN IMPORT DEMAND MAINTAINED
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 24-12-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,87,900
    Upland Shipments 2,75,100
    Net Pima Sales 15,300
    Pima Shipments 15,500
    TOTAL SALES 3,03,200

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 15,100
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 15,100
Plexus Market Comments 31 Dec
  • So where do we go from here?

    The market ended the year on a high note, with March closing at a new contract high. We started the year with the spot month at 69.05 cents, then fell to a pandemic reaction low of 48.35 cents, before steadily climbing 30 cents since the beginning of April.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • DECEMBER 31, 2020

    2020 COTTON MARKET REVIEW

    Cotton futures ended the year with a bang, gaining 192 points from last Thursday’s close to settle at 78.12 cents per pound today. In fact, the high for the last day of 2020 is the highest price to print since April of 2019, about 20 months ago. In the spirit of looking back at where we’ve been and since this is the last cotton market weekly for 2020, we thought an annual review and longer-term perspective could be helpful. What follows below is a brief look at the cotton market over the past year.
Jernigan Global Weekly 04-Jan-2021
  • 1. US SOYBEAN PRICES SOAR AND STOCK LEVELS SHRINK; HOW WILL COTTON ACREAGE HOLD UP?

    2. XINJIANG SLAVE LABOR FACTORIES IDENTIFIED IN ALL MAJOR COTTON AREAS SHOCKING GROWTH IN FACTORIES CONTINUED IN 2020 EU TURNS THE OTHER CHEEK AND APPROVES INVESTMENT TREATY

    3. CHINA-MADE, SIX-ROW ROUND BALE COTTON PICKERS UNVEILED IN XINJIANG

    4. THE RISE OF CHINA’S DOMESTIC APPAREL MARKET; 12 CITIES NAMED IN VOGUE 2020 INDEX CHINA CITIES RISE IN IMPORTANCE TO REPLACE TROUBLED US METRO CENTERS

    5. US FASHION CAPITAL DESCENDS INTO CHAOS AS YEAR ENDS
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES TO PUSH HIGHER, HAS OUTSTANDING HOLIDAY SEASON

    January 04, 2021

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 192 points for the week ending Dec 31, finishing at 78.12 as the Mar – May switch strengthened to (58), well short of full carry. The spot month gained nearly 1100 points in 2020 and almost 2000 Vs the market’s 2020 low and gained nearly 600 points in Dec.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 31-12-2020

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,53,000
    Upland Shipments 2,70,000
    Net Pima Sales 6,200
    Pima Shipments 12,400
    TOTAL SALES 1,59,200

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 0
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 0
Plexus Market Comments 07 Jan
  • So where do we go from here?

    Short sellers are becoming an endangered species in the financial markets, as they are afraid of getting steamrolled by the trillions of dollars that central bankers have created out of thin air and all the liquidity that is coming out of bonds, where $18 trillion are trading at a negative yield. This is allowing the financial mania to power ahead without much opposition.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Market Optimism May Also Fuel Uncertainties

    January 8, 2021

    2020 is now in the rear view mirror. We gladly say good riddance as 2020 was not a good year for many and for many reasons. 2021 brings hope of better outcomes.

    Old-crop March futures has now reached the 80-cent area. The recovery in prices since the lows in late March-early April has been phenomenal and much welcomed—continuing to provide growers with marketing opportunities earlier thought not likely.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 8, 2021

    COTTON FUTURES START 2021 WITH A BANG

    • March Futures Hit Two-Year High
    • Commodity Indexes Rally Back to Pre-pandemic Levels
    • Exports Up Compared to Same Time Last Year
    • Cotton Grower Magazine Releases Acreage Survey Results for Next Year
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Fewer Acres Likely Despite Continued High Prices

    January 11, 2021

    The New Year always begins with our listing of Bullish and Bearish market factors.  These factors that will likely lead market direction over the course of the year.
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES HIGHER DESPITE DOMESTIC UNREST

    11-January-2021

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 165 points for the week ending Jan 8, finishing at 79.77 as the Mar – May switch weakened to (78), still well short of full carry.  It is worth noting that the Mar contract spent significant time north of the 80-level for the week. 
USDA - WASDE
  • The U.S. 2020/21 cotton outlook shows higher exports, and lower production and ending stocks this month. Production is lowered nearly 1 million bales to 15.0 million, led by a 500,000-bale decline in Texas. U.S. mill use is reduced 100,000 bales, but exports are raised 250,000 bales as rebounding world demand helps sustain a strong export pace. With lower production and higher demand, 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks are 1.1 million bales lower relative to last month, at 4.6 million bales or 26 percent of use.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 07-01-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 3,26,000
    Upland Shipments 2,74,600
    Net Pima Sales 35,900
    Pima Shipments 10,300
    TOTAL SALES 3,61,900

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 50,300
    Net Pima Sales 400
    TOTAL 50,700
Plexus Market Comments 14 Jan
  • So where do we go from here?

    From a technical point of view the primary uptrend is alive and well, but the market has recently accelerated out of its trend channel that has been in force since early April. It would therefore not surprise us if the market were to pull back into this channel over the coming weeks, to somewhere in the high 70s.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Enjoying One Heck of a Ride, But Caution Ahead

    January 15, 2021

    Old crop March futures pushed above 81 cents this week. New crop December has topped 77 cents. Old crop was down a little today to close out the week but cotton enjoyed another good week due to several positive reports released.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Prices “Stuck in Mud, but Good Mud”

    January 15, 2021

    Headed into the U.S. three-day holiday weekend cotton prices are stuck in mud, but good mud.  That is, if you must be stuck it is good to be mired in 81 cent muck as opposed to 60 cent muck.  USDA’s January supply demand report validated the market’s run above 80 cents and made a case for prices to trade higher.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 15, 2021

    EXCITING WEEK OF MARKETS, COTTON FUTURES SETTLE UP 139 POINTS

    • World and Economic Events Befuddle Investors
    • January WASDE Reported Mostly Minor Revisions
    • USDA Cut 2020/2021 Crop Production Estimate by 996,000 Bales
    • Strong Export Sales Return This Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES IT’S TREK HIGHER; USDA SLASHES DOMESTIC PRODUCTION AND CARRYOUT ESTIMATES

    January 16, 2021

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 93 points for the week ending Jan 15, finishing at 80.70 as the Mar – May switch weakened to (92), still short of full carry. It is worth noting that the Mar contract managed to breach the 82.00 level on the week.
Plexus Market Comments 21 Jan
  • So where do we go from here?

    As long as China continues to absorb cotton and yarn at the current pace and financial markets remain in a euphoric state, it is difficult to foresee an end to the current bull run.

    To the contrary, we still feel that the trade is dangerously exposed with its large net short position, from which it sooner or later needs to escape. Speculators have no intention of quitting their longs at this point, especially since they see a big roll gain ahead if they take their position into the
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 14-01-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,92,300
    Upland Shipments 3,22,400
    Net Pima Sales 23,800
    Pima Shipments 8,400
    TOTAL SALES 3,16,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 39,500
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 39,500
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Recipe for Higher Prices, but Maybe Not Mid-80s

    January 22, 2021

    Despite faltering prices at week’s end cotton enjoyed a very positive week as prices increased and exports sales continued robust. Cotton established life of contract highs across the board. New York noted the stronger Chinese market and followed suit. Further, the On-Call sales report, particularly for the May contract, lent a hint of support to higher prices.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 22, 2021

    MARKETS REACH NEW HIGHS THIS WEEK

    • March Futures Gain 142 Points for Week
    • Stocks End Week With New Record Highs
    • Analysts Cut Planted Acreage Forecasts for Next Year
    • Demand for U.S. Cotton Remains Strong
Jernigan Global Weekly 25-Jan-2021
  • 1. CHINA RETAIL SALES OF APPAREL WEAKEN IN DECEMBER

    2. INDIAN CFR EXPORT BASIS WEAKENS AS MSP MEETS MARKET PRICE

    3. CHINA LIKELY TO EXPAND COTTON ACREAGE IN XINJIANG IN 2021/2022 DESPITE US BAN

    4. PAKISTAN DEMAND FOR IMPORTED COTTON HOLDS AS EXPORTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE

    5. BRAZILIAN RAINS IMPROVE BUT JANUARY RAINFALL STILL LIKELY BELOW NORMAL
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK HIGHER BUT HINDERED BY WEAKNESS IN COMPETING CROPS

    January 24, 2021

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 86 points for the week ending Jan 22, finishing at 81.56 as the Mar – May switch weakened to (110). It is worth noting that the Mar contract managed to breach the 83.00 level on the week, marking the market’s highest nearby intraday high in more than two years.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 21-01-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 3,22,700
    Upland Shipments 2,75,300
    Net Pima Sales 25,800
    Pima Shipments 12,600
    TOTAL SALES 3,48,500

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 53,600
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 53,600
Plexus Market Comments 28 Jan
  • So where do we go from here?

    The lack of spec buying over the last couple of weeks has allowed the market to drift back into its long-term trend channel. However, this bull market still has a lot of leeway before it needs to worry, with the 50-day MA sitting at 76.46 and the long-term uptrend line currently running through around 75 cents. The 200-day MA at 67.03 is still a few more levels below that.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Will New Crop Break 80 Cents?

    January 29, 2021

    Cotton muddled through the week seeing nothing but red until the bears waved a white flag on Friday and allowed cotton prices to ease back to their support at 80-81 cents, basis old crop and 77 cents, basis new crop. Thus, the market survived an attempt by bears to run prices lower.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JANUARY 29, 2021

    COTTON FUTURES ENDURE ROUGH TRADING WEEK

    • Outlook for Economic Recovery Dims
    • Long-Term Forecast Features Early Spring and Better Rainfall
    • Total Export Market Commitments at 13.1 Million Bales
    • Traders Focus on Managing Hedge Books
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK LOWER AMID FUND ROLLING, BIDEN LOOKS TO DIVERT CCC FUNDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

    February 01, 2021

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gave up 92 points for the week ending Jan 29, finishing at 80.64 as the Mar – May switch weakened to (120). The Mar contract gained 252 points for Jan. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jan 2021
  • Monthly Rate Movement Report – Jan 2021

    • Daily Physical Spot Rate

    • MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

    • USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

    • Cotlook Index

    • ICE Future Closing

    • NCDEX Kapas Rate

    • MCX Future Closing

    • NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 28-01-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,86,700
    Upland Shipments 3,19,000
    Net Pima Sales 19,000
    Pima Shipments 20,200
    TOTAL SALES 3,05,700

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 3,800
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 3,800
Plexus Market Comments 05 Feb
  • So where do we go from here?

    Although today’s breakout was impressive, we don’t think that it was the beginning of a big short squeeze yet. As described above, it was caused by a confluence of circumstances in a lack of sell-side liquidity. That will change tomorrow, when the GSCI roll begins, during which index funds and speculators move remaining longs from March into May.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 5, 2021

    MARKETS TRADE SIDEWAYS, ECONOMIC NEWS BETTER THAN EXPECTED

    • Thursday’s Trading Volume Hits Highest Single Day Volume in 18 Months
    • Inflation Expectations Rising, Positive for Commodities
    • Long-term Weather Outlook Remains Negative
    • Major Reports Releasing Next Week
Cleveland On Cotton
  • 90 Cents Is Within Striking Distance

    February 5, 2021

    It should not go unnoticed that we have often commented that traders should watch the Chinese market as New York has a long tendency to follow Chinese prices. That trend has not been as strong the past few years, but never doubt it. There are solid reasons.
Jernigan Global Weekly 08-Feb-2021
  • 1. FOSSIL FASHION BEGINNING TO COME UNDER ASSAULT AS THE YEAR OF THE GREEN ADVANCES FASHION’S RELIANCE ON FOSSIL FUEL DERIVATIVES MOVES INTO SPOTLIGHT

    2. INCREASED RISK OCCURING IN CHEAP GLOBAL CUT/SEW CENTERS MYANMAR COUP – ETHIOPIA MCKELLE PARK BOMBED

    3. TURKEY QUICKLY BECOMING THE APPAREL SOURCING HUB FOR EUROPE

    4. US WEEKLY EXPORTS APPEAR TO HAVE TRIGGERED SOME RATIONING OF US SUPPLIES

    5. BRAZILIAN CONCERNS OVER CROP DELAYS CONTINUE
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES WEEK SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER, CAN BULLISH RUN CONTINUE?

    February 06, 2021

    The ICE Mar cotton contract gained 210 points for the week ending Feb 5, finishing at 82.74 as the Mar – May switch weakened to (128). The Mar contract managed to trade a high of 84.89 on the week. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Where We’ve Been, Where We Are, and Why

    February 8, 2021

    This market is crazy unpredictable and unknown… but so far, in a good way. The multitude of factors impacting price are as complex as I’ve experienced in over 30 years dealing with cotton. This includes:

    • Expected demand growth (rebound) after stunning weakness.

    • Demand growth is expected due to anticipated improvement in the COVID pandemic situation.
USDA - WASDE
  • February-2021

    The 2020/21 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is raised 250,000 bales to 15.5 million based on a strong pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 4.3 million bales, equivalent to 24 percent of total disappearance. The upland cotton marketing year average price received by producers is projected at 68 cents per pound, unchanged from January.

U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 04-02-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,75,400
    Upland Shipments 4,33,600
    Net Pima Sales 9,700
    Pima Shipments 7,100
    TOTAL SALES 2,85,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 1,70,100
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,70,100
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 04-02-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,75,400
    Upland Shipments 4,33,600
    Net Pima Sales 9,700
    Pima Shipments 7,100
    TOTAL SALES 2,85,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 1,70,100
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,70,100
Shurley on Cotton
  • Eventful Week Leaves Questions, Uncertainty

    February 12, 2021

    Cotton prices have been highly variable (wild) over the past week or more with triple digit moves up and down for 6 consecutive days Feb 4-11. Typically, this can be a sign of market surprises (good or bad) and/or nervousness.
Plexus Market Comments 11 Feb
  • So where do we go from here?

    Trade shorts are feeling the heat and at the moment we see no easy way out for them. What worries us is that traders are still stubbornly hanging on to their positions, as futures open interest has barely budged over the last five sessions, dropping only slightly from 248.1k to 247.3k contracts. This is quite remarkable considering that we are in the midst of a front month liquidation.

PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 12, 2021

    MARKET VOLATILITY, HEALTHY EXPORTS, AND NEW REPORTS

    • Trading Volumes Set Records
    • Jobless Claims Decrease
    • Shipments Continue at Healthy Pace
    • WASDE Report and NCC Economic Outlook
Jernigan Global Weekly 15-Feb-2021
  • 1. INDIAN SPOT SHANKAR-6 1 1/8 PRICES FALL TO 1000-POINT DISCOUNT TO ICE MAY FUTURES

    2. AUSTRALIAN 2021 CROP HITS 600 AD/BALE  AND NEW RAINS FORECAST

    3. USDA WASDE LEAVES THE US CROP PRODUCTION UNCHANGED

    4. AS CLASSING NEARS COMPLETION XINJIANG CROP’S SHARP FALL IN QUALITY IN 2020 IS CONFIRMED

    5. CHINESE MARKETS DO NOT FOLLOW ICE GAINS AND SPINNERS’ INVENTORIES HIGHEST IN FIVE YEARS
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET POSTS ANOTHER BANNER WEEK, PRODUCERS SELLING 2021 CROP

    February 14, 2021

    The ICE May cotton contract gained 464 points for the week ending Feb 12, finishing at 88.96 as the May – July switch strengthened to (75). Dec finished near its weekly high at 83.89. Again, time to consider pricing new crop bales. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Plexus Market Comments 18 Feb
  • So where do we go from here?

    The March liquidation was orderly, as the trade kicked the can down the road, hoping for an eventual break to cover its short. Sure, there are still four months for the trade to deal with its position, but what worries us is that it keeps getting bigger, as ‘cheap’ basis offers lure more shorts into the market.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 11-02-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,19,500
    Upland Shipments 3,11,800
    Net Pima Sales 14,600
    Pima Shipments 11,800
    TOTAL SALES 1,34,100

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 2,100
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 2,100
Cleveland On Cotton
  • “On-Call Sales” Positions Driving Market

    February 19, 2021

    Cotton prices have settled higher in at least one contract month for the past 11 days. Chinese prices have hit a 30-month high. That is just too much, but then the market is not actually trading cotton.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 19, 2021

    MARCH FUTURES GO OUT WITH A BANG

    • May Futures Mark High at 90.77
    • Jobless Claims Increase
    • China This Week’s Top Buyer of U.S. Cotton
    • USDA Holds Virtual World Agricultural Outlook Conference
Jernigan Global Weekly 22-Feb-2021
  • 1. CFR BASIS LEVELS WEAKEN AS INVERT AND ICE RALLY IMPACTS TRADE; INDIAN BASIS EXTENDS DISCOUNT

    2. US CBP ISSUES DETAILS ON XINJIANG WITHHOLD ORDERS – EFFECTIVELY BANS IMPORT OF ANY XINJIANG COTTON/ TOMATO PRODUCT

    3. ABARE CONFIRMS 2021 AUSSIE CROP AT 2.582 MB

    4. PAKISTAN TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORTS CONTINUE TO EXPAND/JANUARY SHIPMENTS POST 10.79% GROWTH

    5. BRAZIL’S CROP REMAINS LATE AND RAINS CONTINUE
ROSE ON COTTON
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES HIGHER, USDA FORECASTS ACREAGE NEAR UNCHANGED IN 2021

    February 21, 2021

    The ICE May cotton contract gained 261 points for the week ending Feb 19, finishing at 90.48; the May – July switch was little changed at (73). Dec again finished near its weekly high, this time at 85.50. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 18-02-2021

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,47,800
    Upland Shipments 2,92,400
    Net Pima Sales 11,900
    Pima Shipments 12,200
    TOTAL SALES 2,59,700

    2021-2022
    Net Upland Sales 40,700
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 40,700
Plexus Market Comments 25 Feb
  • So where do we go from here?

    Today’s price action was outright ugly and we should see some follow through to the downside on Friday. How far down remains to be seen, but unless we get a bounce tomorrow, the weekly chart will paint a bearish ‘shooting star’, which will invite more selling.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Reversal Unlikely a Market Death Blow

    February 26, 2021

    It finally happened. After some 14 days of higher highs cotton prices finally bit the dust. The song at week’s end was: “You Picked A Fine Time to Leave Me Lucille.” Yet, the crop is not in the field. There is scant little old crop in grower hands and the new crop is still in the seed bag.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Demand Key to 2021 Prices, Income, Risk Management

    February 26, 2021

    Prices have continued to show upward strength, although down sharply today—putting a halt to 9 consecutively higher days. Cotton futures were down 300 to 400 points today with old crop May at 89.69 and new crop Dec at 84.78.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • FEBRUARY 26, 2021

    STOCK MARKETS MIXED THIS WEEK

    • May Futures Set New Life-of-Contract Highs Every Day This Week
    • China Largest Purchaser of U.S. Upland Cotton
    • Good Economic News and Lower Bond Prices
    • Merchants Watching Futures Market for Directional Cues
Jernigan Global Weekly 01-Mar-2021
  • 1. RECORD BASIS DISCOUNT MOVES LARGE BLOCK OF INDIAN COTTON INTO TRADE HANDS

    2. XINJIANG BANS: CONCERNS EXPAND COTTON USE OUTSIDE CHINA

    3. GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL MARKETS SURGE PUSHING POLYESTER PRICES SHARPLY HIGHER

    4. AUSTRALIA REPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AS FOB BASIS COMES UNDER PRESSURE