Market Reports
China Cotton Auction FINAL
  • 12-March-2018 To 30-Sept-2018

    METRIC TONNES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 5,256,286
    Cumulative Sales 2,510,279
    Remaining Stock 2,746,007

    BALES
    Reserve Stock End Of 2017 24,142,123
    Cumulative Sales 11,529,712
    Remaining Stock 2,612,411
Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA
  • Historical Revisions to Indian's Cotton Balance Sheet - USDA

    Historical revisions have been made to India’s balance sheet for the years 2002/03 through 2013/14, with the stock adjustment carried forward. The revisions are based on the conclusion that market yard arrivals data underreported arrivals in the early portion of the harvest season. This conclusion was based on observed market activity in November for several years.
Brazil: More cotton acreage is being planted
  • Shifting Corn Acres to Cotton

    While corn remains the major safrinha crop for Brazilian farmers, more cotton acreage is being planted in Mato Grosso this spring, as well.

    Over the past two years, cotton planting has increased by nearly one-third for the safrinha in Mato Grosso. The Brazilian Association of Cotton Producers(Abrapa) forecast cotton acreage to grow to 1.4 million hectares (3.46 million acres). Mato Grosso accounts for about 88% of Brazil’s cotton production.
DTN Cotton Close 09-Jul-2020
  • Cotton Ends Lower

    Cotton Ends Lower, Awaits USDA Data

    The cotton market finished slightly lower Thursday amid a strong export number and continued forecast of a hot and dry Texas. Earlier in the session, New crop posted a very strong technical spike in response to a Chinese shipment, but halted “this side” of the 65.00-cent level. The stopping point occurred right about the 62% retracement level, as pulled from the January high to the April low.
Cotton Indices and Spot Rate As on 09-Jul-2020
  • Brazil Cotton Index 50.97 +0.39%

    US Upland Spot Rate 60.20 -0.23

    Cotlook A Index 70.15 +0.70

    MCX Spot Rate 15,850 -20
Exchange Stock Position
  • NCDEX KHAL As on 06-Jul-2020

    Cotton Seed Oil Cake Stock
    Unencumbered = 17,112 MT
    Pledged = 569 MT
    QTY in Process =2018 MT

    MCX Cotton As on 04-Jul-2020

    Total Utilized Capacity =1,39,400 Bales
    Eligible for Exchange Delivery = 1,34,400 Bales
    Quantity in Process = 1625 Bales
    Rejected Stocks = 3,375 Bales
USDA Prospective Plantings
  • USDA Planting Intention

    US All cotton planted area for 2019 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, 2 percent below last year.

    Upland area is estimated at 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018.

    American Pima area is estimated at 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018.
Indian Raw Cotton Export-Import 2018-19
  • INDIAN COTTON EXPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    6,63,386 Tones
    39,02,271 Bales of 170 Kg

    INDIAN COTTON IMPORT
    Including Cotton Waste

    Oct-2018 to Mar-2019
    1,01,072 Tones
    5,94,541 Bales of 170 Kg

China Cotton Auction
  • From May 5 to Sep 27, the cumulative turnover of reserve cotton was 979,100 tons, and the turnover rate was 85.94%.
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Looking Beyond the Uncertainties of Trade Tensions  

    The trade dispute between the United States and China has impacted cotton demand and supply chains over the course of the past year. On 1 June 2019, China is set to increase tariffs on $60 billion of US goods in retaliation to the US tariff increase on the remaining $200 billion worth of Chinese imports.
USDA -World Markets and Trade
  • China cotton imports in 2019/20 are expected to surpass the previous year’s robust level, reinforcing its position
    as the world’s largest importer. The current 2018/19 estimate, boosted this month, is expected to be the largest in 5 years as China supplements domestic supplies amid ongoing auctions of State Reserve stocks. Despite this strong upward trend in imports, U.S. exports to China have weakened as Brazil, Australia, and other countries have expanded both exports and market share.
India's Cotton Textiles Export Update for FY (April – June) 2019-20
  • India’s Cotton Textiles Exports

    Cotton Textile exports reached a level of USD 739.17 million in June 2019 marking a decline of (-) 30.4 per cent against the corresponding month of June 2018, wherein exports were valued at USD 1,061.96 million.

    In rupee terms, exports during the month of June 2019 reached a level of Rs. 5,132.72 cr. as against Rs. 7,199.39 Cr. in June 2018 marking a decline of (-) 28.7 per cent in rupee terms.
USDA - Cotton and Wool Outlook
  • Cotton and Wool Outlook

    U.S. Cotton Product Trade Increasing in 2019

    The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates indicate that total U.S. cotton textile and apparel trade rose during the first half of 2019, compared with the corresponding 2018 period. U.S. cotton product imports totaled the equivalent of 9.0 million 480-pound bales of raw cotton during January-June 2019—compared with 8.8 million bales for the first 6 months of 2018—while cotton product exports declined slightly to 1.7 million bale-equivalents.
INDIA Cotton and Products Update
  • Highlights

    Post estimates marketing year (MY) 2019/20 cotton production at 29 million 480 lb. bales (37.1 million 170-kilogram bales/6.3 MMT) with a planting area of 12.7 million hectares. MY 2019/20 mill consumption remains weak as mills accumulate greater cotton yarn stocks due to poor demand. Export prospects have diminished while imports are expected to remain stable as they are price competitive against domestic supplies.
US Export Sales Summary
  • 01-Aug-2019 To 22-Aug-2019

    2019-2020

    COMMITMENTS
    PIMA 1,53,645
    UPLAND 80,84,753
    TOTAL 82,38,398

    SHIPMENTS
    PIMA 29,297
    UPLAND 8,61,924
    TOTAL 8,91,221

    2020-2021 SALES

    UPLAND 4,63,124
ICAC - Executive Summary
  • Highlights from the September 2019 Cotton This Month include:

    • Global production is expected to increase 5% to 26.9 million tonnes
    • Global consumption is projected to increase 1% to 26.9 million tonnes
    • The excess production will cause global stocks to swell to 18.3 million tonnes
    • Prices will be under increasing pressure as a result of the growing supply
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter September-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    After falling in July, benchmark prices were stable in August and the first half of September.

    • The NY December contract has held to levels near 58 cents/lb since mid-August.

    • The A Index was steady near 70 cents/lb.

    • In international terms, the China Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) decreased from 88 to 83 cents/lb between early August and the present. Over the same period, the RMB eased 0.9% against the USD (from 7.05 to 7.12 RMB/USD).
ICAC - Executive Summary
  • Highlights from the October 2019 edition of ‘Cotton This Month’ include:

    • Global production is projected to outpace consumption slightly in 2019/20
    • East Asian countries will continue to lead the world in consumption
    • Several major consuming countries will post consumption gains, but mostly 2% or less
    • High stocks and low demand for exports have driven prices to their lowest levels since 2016
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - October 2019
  • Executive Cotton Update - October 2019

    Macroeconomic Overview: Concerns about economic growth remain. The commonly tracked producer manager indices (PMIs)  released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) were lower in September. The manufacturing PMI, which can be a leading indicator for the overall economy, signaled contraction for the second consecutive month and posted its lowest value since 2009.
ICAC - Executive Summary
  • Highlights from the November 2019 Cotton This Month include:

    • The US-China trade war is dragging down both the global economy and international cotton trade
    • In 2019/20, India is projected to lead the world in production despite low yields
    • With production expected to grow by 1 million tonnes, and consumption projected to remain flat, prices will be under heavy pressure throughout the year
Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - November 2019
  • Executive Cotton Update - November 2019

    Macroeconomic Overview: The IMF released an update to its World Economic Outlook last month. The first sentence of the report states that the global economy is in a synchronized slowdown. Correspondingly, the forecast for world GDP growth in 2019 was once again revised lower.
Cotton Inc. Monthly Economic Letter November-2019
  • Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook

    November 2019

    RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT

    Most benchmark prices increased slightly over the past month. Indian prices were stable.

    • The NY December futures contract rose from 62 to 64 cents/lb.

    • The A Index rose from 72 to 75 cents/lb.

    • In international terms, the China Cotton Index (CC Index 3128B) increased from 80 to 84 cents/lb. In domestic terms, the CC Index increased from 12,600 to 13,000 RMB/ton. The RMB strengthened against the dollar over the past month, from 7.10 to 6.99 RMB/USD (+1.6%).
ICAC - Executive Summary Dec-2019
  • Highlights from the Inaugural Session of the 78th Plenary Meeting:

    Consumers today are increasingly demanding information on the origin and history of the products they buy, putting pressure on retailers to provide transparency

    Multiple technologies have the potential to provide that traceability, including blockchain and a host of products from private companies
ICE Cotton Update 09-Jul-2020
  • Cotton eases from 4-month peak ahead of WASDE report

    July 9 (Reuters) - ICE cotton futures edged lower having hit a four-month high on Thursday ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) monthly supply-demand report, which is expected to show a decline in production of the natural fiber.

Cotton Inc. Executive Cotton Update - February 2020
  • Executive Cotton Update - February 2020

    Macroeconomic Overview:  The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that the U.S. economy grew 2.3% in 2019.  Forecasts suggest that growth could slow a little in 2020, with many projections falling between 1.9% and 2.1%.  For comparison, in 2018, growth was 2.9% and in 2017 growth was 2.4%.    

NCC survey
  • U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020

    U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Global Stocks Expected to Drop by 1% in 2019/20 Season

    Date Posted: 2 March 2020

    Executive Summary
     
    Highlights from the March 2020 Cotton This Month include

    •  Global stocks are expected to decline for the fifth consecutive season

    •  China is the only country expected to post a decline

    •  Consumption is expected to be steady and production is expected to grow by 1%

    •  With prices under pressure, the Secretariat’s price projection is 79 cents per pound
USDA - WASDE REPORT
  • APR-2020

    The 2019/20 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show sharply lower exports, lower consumption, and higher ending stocks compared with last month. A developing global economic slowdown with little precedent is expected to significantly reduce global cotton demand and trade, resulting in one of the largest one-month reductions in projected U.S. cotton exports ever: down 1.5 million bales to 15.0 million.
Thompson On Cotton
  • Market Shrugged Off Negative News – Are Its Shoulders Still Flexible?

    April 20, 2020

    Last week’s economic data was not kind to cotton. March retail figures indicated clothing sales were down 50 percent and home furnishings were down by 27 percent as compared to the same time one year ago. Look for April numbers to be even worse taking into consideration most stores were open for a portion of March.
Shurley on Cotton
  • 5 Marketing Approaches In A Year With No Clear Paths

    April 20, 2020

    The CARES program (the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump on March 27th. This legislation provides over $2 trillion in economic assistance.
Plexus Market Comments 30 Apr
  • So where do we go from here?

    Looking at the US stock market one might get the impression that this virus crisis was just a blip in an otherwise healthy bull market. Nothing could be further from the truth, as stocks were already overvalued before we knew the word Covid-19 and they are now even more ridiculously overpriced.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • A Tipping Point In India?

    May 1, 2020

    The pandemic played out in the market at week’s end, but not before the new crop December futures contract moved above 59 cents – the very top of its range – before ending the week at 57.46 cents.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 1, 2020

    FUTURES PRICES RALLY TO FRESH SIX-WEEK HIGH

    • 3.8 Million Additional Jobless Claims This Week
    • Decreasing Number of New Coronavirus Cases
    • U.S. Export Sales Report Provided Evidence for Rumored Chinese Purchases
    • Crop Progress Report and Export Sales Report Next Week
Jernigan Global Weekly 04-May-2020
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. CHINA PURCHASES CONFIRMED IN US WEEKLY EXPORT SALES CREATE NEW QUESTIONS

    2. COULD RETAILERS’ RECORD DISCOUNTS OF APPAREL INVENTORIES BREACH ZERO?

    3. BRAZILIAN GROWERS SLOW TO SELL AT CURRENT PRICES

    4. THAILAND COTTON CONSUMPTION VERY WEAK

    5. INDIAN COTTON MOVEMENT BEGINS TO INCREASE
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET SURGES ON CHINESE PURCHASES, RETRACES ON CONCERNS REGARDING FUTURES US – CHINA TRADE RELATIONS

    May 04, 2020

    ICE July cotton picked up 21 points for the week ending May 1 to finish at 55.84 while Dec gave up 15 at 57.52. Both contracts posted large gains for the month of April. The July – Dec switch strengthened to (168), significantly short full carry.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Understanding The LDP/MLG Balancing Act

    May 6, 2020

    Old crop July futures have now lost 3.75 cents since the recent “peak” at over 57 cents on April 30 last week. New crop December futures have declined 3.5 cents after reaching almost 59 cents on April 30.

    “It now appears we will test a likely range of 52 to 57 cents until the next “mover” comes along. July should have support (keep our fingers crossed) at 52 cents and should we begin to trek up again, 58 will the hurdle to negotiate.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 30-04-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 3,70,300
    Upland Shipments 3,70,300
    Net Pima Sales 2,400
    Pima Shipments 3,200
    TOTAL SALES 3,72,700

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 55,900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 55,900
Plexus Market Comments 07 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    China buying has provided some excitement in recent weeks and rallied the market into the mid-to-high 50s. A lack of tenderable supplies might keep the July contract elevated, but once December takes over as the lead month, the market will have to face reality again.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Chinese Buying Adds Stability But No Big Upswing

    May 8, 2020

    The cotton market has that mid-August feeling that little, if anything, is occurring. That is, the market is in the doldrums. Certainly, the feeling is there and I am near guilty of believing such.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 8, 2020

    JULY FUTURES SETTLE DOWN FOR THE WEEK

    • China Continues to Purchase Agricultural Goods
    • U.S. Jobless Claims Continued to Increase Last Week
    • Healthy Export Sales Report
    • May WASDE to Come Next Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET POSTS MODEST GAINS AHEAD OF WASDE RELEASE, KSU ECONOMIC STUDY POSES DANGER TO COTTON PRODUCERS

    May 10, 2020

    ICE July cotton picked up 43 points for the week ending May 8 to finish at 56.27 while Dec gained 10 at 57.62 as the July – Dec switch strengthened to (135), well short of full carry. Last weekend our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous
Jernigan Global Weekly
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. INDIAN EXPORTS MOVE INTO SPOTLIGHT AS DISCOUNTS DRAW ATTENTION

    2. US FOB BASIS LEVELS WEAK DESPITE FUTURES PRICE LEVELS; NEW CROP SALES LAG

    3. TURKEY’S ROBUST CONSUMPTION HAS COME TO A HALT

    4. US TEXTILE AND APPAREL IMPORTS FALL 12.6%; COTTON’S MARKET SHARE INCREASES

    5. US & BRAZILIAN DOMINATING VIETNAM OFFTAKE DESPITE PREMIUMS
USDA WASDE
  • The U.S. cotton forecasts for 2020/21 include larger beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and ending stocks compared with the year before. Production is forecast at 19.5 million bales—400,000 bales less than the year before, based on 13.7 million planted acres as indicated in the NASS March Prospective Plantings report.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 07-05-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 2,38,100
    Upland Shipments 2,41,700
    Net Pima Sales -500
    Pima Shipments 7,900
    TOTAL SALES 2,37,600

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 93,300
    Net Pima Sales -1,400
    TOTAL 91,900
Plexus Market Comments 14 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    We continue to believe that the market is way too optimistic about the return of demand. Central banks and governments have been plugging holes with trillions of dollars of new funding, but it won’t be enough to stave off a solvency crisis down the road. A lot of companies will eventually go bankrupt and scores of people will remain unemployed, while many scared consumers are going to bolster their savings rather than spending money on discretionary items like apparel.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Let’s Talk (A Small) Profit

    May 15, 2020

    USDA teased the bears this week with the release of its May world supply/demand report. This was the monthly report that included both the current-year estimates (2019-20) and USDA’s first formal estimates of the upcoming season.

    While the stats seemed bearish, trading has built some short-term bullishness in the price outlook, albeit probably short-lived.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 15, 2020

    COTTON SHOWS SOME STRENGTH THIS WEEK

    • U.S.-China Tensions Seem to Have Returned
    • Export Sales Report Shows New Business from China and Vietnam
    • WASDE Report Released
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET CONTINUES TO DEFY BEARISH NEWS AND DATA, CHINA STILL BUYING US COTTON DESPITE INCREASING TENSIONS WITH USA

    May 16, 2020

    ICE July cotton picked up 198 points for the week ending May 15 to finish at 58.25 while Dec gained 55 at 58.17, as the July – Dec switch strengthened – and inverted - to 8. Last weekend our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct. However,
Jernigan Global Weekly
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. BRAZIL’S DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION PLUNGES TO LOWEST LEVEL IN DECADES

    2. LOS ANGELES FASHION AND APPAREL INDUSTRY AT RISK

    3. US RETAIL SALES OF APPAREL PLUNGES 89.3% IN APRIL

    4. WILL AUSTRALIAN COTTON SALES TO CHINA BE MAINTAINED AS RELATIONS BECOME TENSE?

    5. US EXPORT SALES TO CHINESE TRADE HOUSE AGAIN CONFIRMED
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 14-05-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 1,28,900
    Upland Shipments 2,52,200
    Net Pima Sales 600
    Pima Shipments 4,600
    TOTAL SALES 1,29,500

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,20,200
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,20,200
Plexus Market Comments 21 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    Despite all the buying by China we feel that this bear market rally is nearing its end. Maybe there will be a final push above 60 cents in July before the show ends, but producers and traders should seize the opportunity to put on bearish hedges in new crop futures.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Much Depends On What China Does Or Doesn’t Do*

    May 22, 2020

    Cotton eased into the three-day weekend a bit unsteadily but still standing erect. The market was down on the week, but only after failing to close above its 59.50-cent resistant level.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 22, 2020

    JULY FUTURES POSTED FOUR CONSECUTIVE NEW HIGHS THIS WEEK

    • Slowing Rates of New Infections
    • China Accounted for Bulk of New Sales in Export Sales Report
    • Cotton 44 Percent Planted Across Cotton Belt
    • Planting and Weather Reports Focus Going Forward
Jernigan Global Weekly 25-May-2020
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. CHINA TRADE HOUSE PURCHASES OF US COTTON CONTINUE: ARE THESE LINKED TO THE RESERVE OR YUAN /USD EXCHANGE RATE?

    2. NEW YORK CITY WAS NAMED GLOBAL FASHION CAPITAL JUST BEFORE THE WUHAN VIRUS STRUCK

    3. BRAZILIAN CFR BASIS COMES UNDER MAJOR PRESSURE AS SALES SLOW

    4. CHINESE MILLS TAKE UP INDIAN COTTON AT RECORD DISCOUNTS

    5. USDA ANNOUNCES MAJOR NEW VIRUS DAMAGE AID FOR US FARMERS
Rose on Cotton
  • JULY COTTON CHALLENGES 60.00 LEVEL, RETREATS FOR LOWER WEEKLY SETTLEMENT

    May 25, 2020

    ICE July cotton gave up 64 points for the week ending May 22 - seriously challenging the 60.00 level only to finish at 57.61. Dec lost 36 at 57.81, as the July – Dec switch weakened to (20), still far less than full carry. Last weekend our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Market Direction — Questions Looking For Answers

    May 26, 2020

    Prices (July futures) continue in a range of mostly 54 to 59 cents. We’ve seen a decent uptrend since the most recent low of 53½ on May 5 and, with a few hiccups, since the low near 48 on April 1.

    The market (July) had a chance at near 60 cents today (5/26) but fell back and closed just above 58 cents. Today’s news might be old news by the time you read this, but the point is, this could be further evidence that 59 to 60 cents might be the wall we bang our head against for now.
Plexus Market Comments 28 May
  • So where do we go from here?

    Not much has changed since last week, as the fear of a July squeeze is still supporting the rest of the board. But fundamentals remain extremely weak and there is an abundance of cotton around the globe, which will sooner or later put pressure on physical prices. China is still the only game in town as far as US cotton goes, but with political tensions rising, the mood could suddenly turn negative.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 21-05-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 44,700
    Upland Shipments 2,67,400
    Net Pima Sales 10,100
    Pima Shipments 1,400
    TOTAL SALES 54,800

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,71,900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,71,900
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • MAY 29, 2020

    FUTURES PRICES REBOUNDED AFTER LONG WEEKEND, NOT ABLE TO HOLD GAINS

    • Export Sales Report Released
    • U.S. Cotton Crop More Than 50% Planted
    • NOAA Predicts a 60% Chance of Above-Normal Hurricane Season
Rose on Cotton
  • JULY COTTON FINISHES NEAR UNCHANGED ON WEEK AND MONTH, US PLANTED AREA SHOULD PROVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER VS USDA PROJECTION

    May 31, 2020

    ICE July cotton finished near unchanged for the abbreviated trading week, giving up 2 points to finish at 57.59. The July contract picked up 26 points for the month of May. Dec lost 33 on the week at 57.48, as the July – Dec switch strengthened to an inversion of 11 points.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Don’t Expect Immediate Shifts in Trading Range

    May 30, 2020

    The military command of “March in Place” remains the standard order for the cotton market. Pricing movement through the week remained limited and non-aggressive, yet nothing happened.

    Trading volume did little more that create a big yawn, but the cotton market continues to perform more favorably than either the soybean or corn futures markets.
Jernigan Global Weekly 01-Jun-2020
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. HOW CAN NORMAL TRADE WITH BEIJING CONTINUE?

    2. HONG KONG SPECIAL STATUS REMOVED

    3. HONG KONG ROLE IN TEXTILE AND APPAREL TRADE NOW IN DOUBT

    4. CHINA’S INVASION OF INDIA COULD HAVE A SERIOUS IMPACT ON TRADE

    5. CHINA ISSUES NEW THREATS AGAINST TAIWAN
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 28-05-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales -10,100
    Upland Shipments 2,37,900
    Net Pima Sales 400
    Pima Shipments 2,100
    TOTAL SALES -9,700

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 12,400
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 12,400
Plexus Market Comments 04 Jun
  • So where do we go from here?

    The futures market has become the best buyer at 60 cents and as a result we have seen a rise in the certified stock, which we expect to grow further as we approach First Notice Day in about three weeks from now. There are a lot of current crop commitments being cancelled and some of that cotton will end up on the board.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Dare The Chinese Cancel Commitments?

    June 5, 2020

    The cotton market finally put a little pep in its step this week and moved to the very top of its 55-60 trading range and is now threatening a new higher resistance level in the 62-63 cent area.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JUNE 5, 2020

    PRICES MOVE ABOVE 60 CENTS FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MID-MARCH

    • Stock Indices Continued to Rocket Higher
    • USDA Reported 66 Percent of U.S. Cotton Crop Planted
    • June WASDE Expected Next Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET SOARS AMID DEPRESSED DEMAND, MARKET BEING SQUEEZED?

    June 07, 2020

    ICE July cotton soared for the week ending June 5, with the July and Dec contracts gaining 420 and 350 points to finish at 61.79 and 60.98, respectively, with the July – Dec switch inversion strengthening to 81 points. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be wrong.
Jernigan Global Weekly 08-JUNE-2020
  • HIGHLIGHS

    1. US COTTON CONSUMPTION AT RETAIL TAKES ANOTHER HIT FROM CIVIL UNREST

    2. INDIA’S CCI WILL HOLD 8 MILLION BALES AS IT IS TASKED TO SUPPORT NEW CROP AT EVEN HIGHER PRICES

    3. CHINESE SPINNERS TAKE UP 2019 CROP BRAZILIAN RECAPS AS BASIS WEAKENS

    4. BRAZIL COTTON SHIPMENTS CONTRAST WITH RECORD SOYBEAN SHIPMENTS

    5. TURKEY APPEARS SET TO EMERGE A WINNER AS BUYERS TURN FROM CHINA
ICAC - Cotton This Month
  • Falling Consumption and Rising Stock Levels

    Global consumption for 2019/20 is expected to be 23 million tonnes, an 11.3% decrease from the previous season. With global production expected for 2019/20 at 26.2 million tonnes, a 2% increase from the previous season, ending stock levels are expected to increase to 21.75 million tonnes, the highest level in the past five seasons.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 04-06-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 3,99,700
    Upland Shipments 2,94,300
    Net Pima Sales 3,400
    Pima Shipments 14,700
    TOTAL SALES 4,03,100

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,93,400
    Net Pima Sales 100
    TOTAL 1,93,500
USDA - WASDE
  • June-2020

    The most significant revision to this month’s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates is a 200,000-bale decrease in 2019/20 mill use, to 2.5 million bales. U.S. mill use in 2020/21 was also revised downward by 100,000 bales, and ending stocks are now projected at 7.3 million bales in 2019/20 and 8.0 million bales in 2020/21. While the 43 percent stocks-use ratio projected for 2020/21 is marginally higher than the year before, and is substantially above recent levels, it would still be below the 55 percent ratio realized in 2007/08.
Plexus Market Comments 11 Jun
  • So where do we go from here?

    While July may play out its mini-squeeze with the help of China, the market can’t ignore the massive increase in ROW stocks and the much slower than anticipated economic recovery. We are already seeing considerable basis pressure in outside growths and we don’t believe that China will be able to shield US new crop values from that.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Markets Finds New Upward Resistance Point, New Bottom

    June 12, 2020

    The remaining outlook for old crop and near-term outlook for new crop grew dimmer this week with release yesterday of USDA’s supply/demand numbers/projections.

    We’ve still got a long way to go with new-crop, but yesterday’s numbers raise some caution flags.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Without Consumer Activity, Market Remains Stalled

    June 12, 2020

    China steps up. Great export sales. Bearish price response. USDA’s supply demand report was loved by the bears.

    Just when I begin to feel that I am smart, the cotton market reminds me that I am but a mere mortal. Yet, it is so gracious, it invites you back for more education.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JUNE 12, 2020

    JULY COTTON REACHED HIGH OF 62.32 CENTS BEFORE GIVING BACK GAINS

    • Export Sales Report Shows Net New Upland Sales of 399,600 Bales
    • June WASDE Report Released
    • U.S. Cotton Crop 78% Planted
    • Weather Impacting Crop Conditions Across Cotton Belt
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET OFF NOTICEABLY POST BEARISH WASDE RELEASE

    June 14, 2020

    The ICE Dec and July cotton contracts each gave back 195 points for the week ending June 12, with the July – Dec switch inversion, of course, remaining unchanged at 81. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to lower Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct. We did trade this bias ahead of the WASDE report’s release.
Jernigan Global Weekly 15-Jun-2020
  • HIGHLIGHS

    1. COTTON MUST WIN THE HEARTS OF CONSUMER AS THE BATTLE WITH PLASTIC SET TO EXPAND

    2. GROUNDBREAKING FOR WORLD’S LARGEST PETROCHEMICAL PLANT AND LOCATION US NOT CHINA

    3. BRAZIL’S CONAB PLACES 2020 COTTON CROP AT RECORD

    4. AUSTRALIAN COTTON BELTS AGAIN HAS A CHANCE OF RAIN

    5. PAKISTAN’S ACREAGE DECLINES: INDIA RAPIDLY PLANTING NEW CROP
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 11-06-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 97,600
    Upland Shipments 3,48,300
    Net Pima Sales 5,000
    Pima Shipments 5,900
    TOTAL SALES 1,02,600

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 1,48,400
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 1,48,400
PLEXUS Market Comments June 18, 2020
  • So where do we go from here?

    It will be interesting to see what happens when July goes into the delivery period next week. A squeeze is still possible, as shorts are slow to get out of harm’s way and there seem to be willing takers. A final push higher in July would probably drag December with it and we could see new crop values trade in the low 60s over the coming week.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • A Good Week In The Market…Sort Of

    June 19, 2020

    China continues to step up to the plate as sales improve and shipments flow. Better still, cotton futures featured a week of higher highs and higher lows.

    So, the bulls are hoping for continuing strong export sales. Likely, however, this week’s market excitement resulted from simply trading within the trading range.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JUNE 19, 2020

    COTTON PRICES BEGIN WEEK ON DECLINE BEFORE TURNING UPWARD

    • May Retail Sales Better Than Expected
    • Export Sales Report Shows Net New Sales for 2020/21 at 148,400 Bales
    • U.S. Cotton Crop 89% Planted
Rose on Cotton
  • WEST TEXAS RAINS, DISAPPOINTING EXPORT SALES, OTHER FACTORS COMBINE TO CAP COTTON MARKET

    June 20, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract picked up 78 points for the week ending June 19 to finish at 59.81, with the Dec – Mar switch weakening to (75), which is still far less than full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be correct.
Jernigan Global Weekly 22-Jun-2020
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. EUROPE AND US RETAIL OPENING SUGGEST SLOW REVIVAL IN DEMAND

    2. ITMF ANNUAL SURVEY ON CONTAMINATION CONFIRMS: AUSTRALIA AND US HIGHEST QUALITY WHILE ARGENTINE, GREECE, SOUTH AFRICA, BURKINA FASO AND MEXICO SHOW MAJOR IMPROVEMENT

    3. US RETAIL SALES REBOUND STRONGLY IN MAY

    4. INDIAN EXPORT SALES SLOW DESPITE DISCOUNTS

    5. US TRADE REP LIGHTHIZER CONFIRMS CHINA HAS BOUGHT ONE BILLION USD OF US COTTON AND HAS HIGHER TARGETS
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 18-06-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 1,02,700
    Upland Shipments 3,16,100
    Net Pima Sales 4,200
    Pima Shipments 9,600
    TOTAL SALES 1,06,900

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 67,900
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 67,900
Plexus Market Comments 25 Jun
  • So where do we go from here?

    Fundamentals remain bearish, with too much cotton around the globe looking for a home. West Texas received some much needed rain earlier this week, which has improved crop conditions. This leaves China as the main element of support and while the US balance sheet is the best looking among origins, we are not sure that it will be enough to hold prices up if Brazil, WAF and India are cutting theirs.
Cleveland On Cotton
  • Brutal Competition Ahead

    June 26, 2020

    It is not a pretty picture. You may not want to read this. I do not have a solution. The only bullish marketing news for cotton is a backhanded slap at other row crops.
Shurley on Cotton
  • Neutral Market Continues

    June 26, 2020

    USDA’s Acreage report, the first estimate of actual acres planted, will be out next week on Tuesday, June 30th. USDA’s Prospective Plantings report back at the end of March said that farmers intended to plant 13.7 million acres of cotton this year—down less than 1% from last season and higher than expected by most industry observers and analysts.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JUNE 26, 2020

    DECEMBER FUTURES TRADE WITHIN NARROW RANGE

    • Demand Continues to Weaken Outside China and Vietnam
    • Cotton Planting Almost Finished, 27% U.S. Crop Squaring
    • USDA Acreage Report to be Released Next Week
Rose on Cotton
  • COTTON MARKET FINISHES A BIT LOWER AHEAD OF ACREAGE REPORT, US HOLIDAY

    June 29, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract gave back 31 points for the week ending June 26 to finish at 59.50 as the Dec – Mar switch strengthened modestly to (66), less than full carry. Last weekend, our proprietary model (timely results provided in our complete weekly report) predicted a finish that would be near unchanged to higher Vs the previous Friday’s settlement, which proved to be incorrect, depending upon one’s definition of “near unchanged”.
Jernigan Global Weekly 29-Jun-2020
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. BRAZILIAN STYLES MOVE INTO THE SPOTLIGHT AS DISCOUNT INCREASES

    2. CHINA DEMAND FOR LONGER STAPLE UPLAND AND PIMA HAS BEEN DAMAGED

    3. CHINA’S FIRST QUARTER TEXTILE MACHINERY INVESTMENT PLUNGES AS ECONOMY SHRINKS

    4. LUXURY DEMAND AT RETAIL IS FACING SERIOUS HEADWINDS

    5. TURKEY’S DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION BEGINS TO RECOVER
Shurley on Cotton
  • On Our Way to Unlocking Higher Prices?

    July 1, 2020

    This week’s USDA Acreage report was a shocker. USDA’s first estimate of 2020 actual cotton acres planted is 12.185 million acres—down 11% from last year. Back in March, USDA’s Prospective Plantings report estimated that acres planted would be 13.7 million acres—essentially unchanged from 2019.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 25-06-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 67,300
    Upland Shipments 2,77,000
    Net Pima Sales 4,700
    Pima Shipments 4,400
    TOTAL SALES 72,000

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 2,46,200
    Net Pima Sales 0
    TOTAL 2,46,200
Plexus Market Comments 02 Jul
  • So where do we go from here?

    Speculators have taken the futures market hostage and may boost prices even higher given the current momentum and money flows. In doing so NY futures are divorcing themselves further from the cash market. Unfortunately, there is no way for the cash market to reign in futures prices until the next notice period rolls around, which won’t be until November.
PCCA Cotton Market Weekly
  • JULY 3, 2020

    ACREAGE REPORT IGNITES MARKET RALLY THIS WEEK

    • December Futures Move Higher as July Futures Close
    • USDA’s Acreage and Prospective Plantings Reports Show Variance
    • Crop Condition Categories a Mixed Bag Throughout Cotton Belt
Jernigan Global Weekly 06-Jul-2020
  • HIGHLIGHTS

    1. US FACES EXPORT CRISIS IN 2020/2021 AMID RECORD WORLD STOCKS

    2. WHIMS OF BEIJING ALONE CANNOT SOLVE THE PROBLEM

    3. RECOVERY AT RETAIL LIKELY TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN EXPECTED

    4. CHINA RESERVE BEGINS 2020 AUCTIONS; RESERVE STOCKS STAND AT 2.5-2.6 MMT

    5. XINJIANG ATROCITIES INCREASE ADDING TO SOURCING WOES
Rose on Cotton
  • ICE COTTON TRADES SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER AFTER SURPRISE USDA ACREAGE REPORT, JULY WASDE RELEASE ON FRIDAY

    July 06, 2020

    The ICE Dec cotton contract surged over the holiday-shortened trading week, gaining 345 points for the week ending July 2 to finish at 62.95 as the Dec – Mar switch weakened modestly to (72), which remains far less than full carry. In early trading this week the Dec contract has closed a nearby gap on the continuation chart just south of 63.40, but evidence of selling is emerging.
U.S. EXPORT SALES
  • For Week Ending 02-07-2020

    2019-2020
    Net Upland Sales 43,800
    Upland Shipments 3,29,300
    Net Pima Sales 2,800
    Pima Shipments 7,300
    TOTAL SALES 46,600

    2020-2021
    Net Upland Sales 6,700
    Net Pima Sales 3,600
    TOTAL 10,300
Plexus Market Comments 09 Jul
  • So where do we go from here?

    From a technical point of view the market looks constructive, with the primary trend pointing higher and new spec money flowing in.

    From a fundamental point of view US prices are out of line when compared to other origins, although the US balance sheet is tighter than that of its competitors. Nevertheless, it seems that the tail is wagging the dog at the moment, but the trade has little power to counter that until the next big notice period rolls around, which isn’t until late November.
USDA - WASDE
  • July-2020

    The U.S. 2020/21 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales lower due to higher 2019/20 exports, but exports in 2020/21 are reduced 1 million bales as a 2-million-bale decline in projected output reduces exportable supplies. U.S. planted area is 1.5 million acres lower this month, as indicated in the June 30 Acreage report.