The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
• NY Futures December bounced back from its low at below 57 cents in September and started October with 60.98 first day closing in better hope of resolution of US-China trade war. Although opening strength of ICE future remained well supported and market never came to that support during full month. ICE December crossed 65 cents mark in later part of the month.
Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%
we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
• NY December and March Futures traded full month in very small range. December M/M lost 4 points while March Future lost 52 points.
• During the month December touched low of 61.84 on 21-11-2019 but closed at 64.40 and on the same day March touched low at 64.01 recovered to close at 65.36.
• Roll over from December to March was crucial time and market get higher pressure during this time.
• First three weeks of the February month, cotton market was quite stable but in the last week there was a sharp decline in the prices due to International developments.
• Gujcot Spot Rate opened 39,650 and remained in the range of 39,200-39,600 during first three weeks of February and lost the ground to close at 38,350. S/6 29 mm lost almost 1,300 Rs. Candy M/M.
Market Movement from 27th Apr 2020 to 02th May 2020
• NY May Future will expire on 6th May and was able to close with some gain without big deliveries. Front month July gained as well on Wednesday following rumors of Chinese buying but lost all gains on Friday with president Trump’s threat to resume trade war.
• U.S. Export sales was decent with Chinese purchase of more than 4 lakh bales but market ignored it on worries of resumption trade war.
*Market Movement from 04th May 2020 to 09th May 2020*
• This week started with down trend due to fear of trade tension between the US and China after President Trump’s statements, but from Wednesday speculators were active for short-term profit booking. From Wednesday onwards market remained positive and finally, ICE Jul cotton future closed at 56.27 cents with 88 points gain W/W.
Market Movement from 11th May 2020 to 16th May 2020
• NY July future gained 198 points W/W with help of better export sales to China. Despite some adverse statements by President Trump, China started to fulfill phase one of Trade deal commitments. May WASDE report was bearish for both years. But current demand by China and current lower rate attract the buyers.
Market Movement from 18th May 2020 to 23rd May 2020
• The market remained low during the week but the Dow Jones gained 1000 points on Tuesday as the results of the pharma company moderna tests came positive and the cotton futures gained on Tuesday. And end of week July ICE Cotton future lost with 64 points W/W.
• U.S. Export Sales were weaker compared to the last week. Shipment also slow to require to achieve target.
• Gujarat ginners and spinners resumed partial operation after relaxation in lockdown. Month started with some higher rate and declined fast in the first week itself.
• NY July is lead month for old crop and NY December is first month to hedge new crop and roll over of old crop hedging. July-Dec spread was in full carry at the start of the month but towards the end of the month it became inverse. It shows that next year will start with huge opening and traders are not in a mood to go Bull on new crop.
Market Movement from 08th Jun 2020 to 13th Jun 2020
• NY July and December both futures lost 195 points W/W leaving December 81 points invert to July future. Bearish equity market lead commodity also in red. Despite excellent sales just below 4 lakh market ignored and closed in red.
• WASDE report was also bearish. World cotton balance sheet for both current and next year shows decreasing consumption and rising ending stock.
Market Movement from 15th Jun 2020 to 20th Jun 2020
• NY July contract on expiry and first notice day on next Wednesday. Roll over to December contract by funds and specs give some liquidity to the July contract. July contract open interest is significantly down and in next week it will be very low. During this week due to limited certified stock July gained 172 points and now front month December gained 78 points. Leaving July December invert to 175 points.
Market Movement from 29th Jun 2020 to 04th Jul 2020
• On Tuesday, USDA released the Acreage Report, which is meant to reflect what producers actually planted this year the report was a shocker for the cotton market. In most years, the Acreage and Prospective Plantings Reports have little variation. Whereas this year the Prospective Plantings was anticipated 13.70 million cotton acres, whereas the Acreage Report reported only 12.19 million acres of planting, 11% drop.
Market Movement from 06th Jul 2020 to 11th Jul 2020
• NY December gained 136 points W/W. With reduction in US planted area by USDA bullish signal was in the market. NY future crossed 200 day moving average and technical buying started in the market. Market touched new high at slightly below 65 cents before correction and finally closed at 64.31 cents per pound on Friday.
Market Movement from 13th Jul 2020 to 18th Jul 2020
• NY December gave up 237 points W/W. US-China tension on various stage put pressure on the market.
• After touching almost 65 cents during the last week market showed correction in the current week with profit booking and some rate fixing by farmers for new crop. Weather of Texas is not good for the crop. USDA predicted lower production for the next year.
Market Movement from 20th Jul 2020 to 25th Jul 2020
• NY December gave up 184 points W/W. Till Thursday market remained almost flat but on Friday Dec future gave up 182 points amid rising political tension between U.S. and China.
• U.S. Export sales were very much disappointing as at higher rate there is no buying for U.S. cotton. Competition from other origins like Brazil and India restrict US cotton demand. Shipment is satisfactory and will reach USDA target of 15M bales.
Market Movement from 27th Jul 2020 to 01st Aug 2020
• NY December recovered from last week’s loss and gained 256 points W/W. Market recovered by better export sales and shipment and weaker dollar. Some fear of crop damage in southern Texas due to Hurricane Hanna also lead speculators for short covering. Overall NY future had supportive week.
Market Movement from 03rd Aug 2020 to 08th Aug 2020
• The cotton market finished its Friday session sharply lower. Fears of Chinese economic retaliation over the Trump administration’s banning of TikTok and WeChat caused traders to make the leap to anticipating cancellations of U.S. cotton purchases. To that end, trade representatives from the U.S. and China will meet via video conferencing next week to “review” the phase-one trade deal.
