The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%
we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishes happy, healthy and earning new year 2023 to all our friends.
• Year 2022 taught us many lessons. We witnessed extremely high rates. NY cotton future near 158 cents per lb. and Indian physical cotton rate crossed Rs one lakh per candy. Some sweet and some bitter memories of year 2022. first quarter of the Indian new cotton season and second quarter of US new cotton season was dominated by bears.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2021-22
• Up trend in cotton prices during first quarter of new season has continued with cotton prices touching life time new high in Indian cotton. While in U.S. It is the second highest rate after 2011.
• Indian Mills earned well during first quarter with old crop CCI stock till October and new arrivals.
Gujcot Second Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishing happy and earning new financial year to all cotton friends.
• January-March quarter was volatile in all futures. Huge ups and downs were noticed during this period. Despite huge ups and downs range is very narrow. NY March was in 80.25 to 87.00 range while NY May moved in slightly bigger range of 76.54 to 88.02.
• The first half of the month saw a narrow range of 80 to 85 cents for NY futures, but the second half was bearish with a range of 76.5 to 81 cents. USDA released the WASDE report, which was nearly neutral and did not cause any significant volatility.
• During the month of May, NY July cotton future have not been able to break out of the long-term range of 79-86. The latest WASDE report was somewhat favorable for the market, with an increase in U.S. exports and a decrease in ending stocks. Export sales have been decent, leading the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise the US export estimate from 12.2 to 12.6 million bales.
Gujcot Third Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• During the third quarter of the cotton season (April to June) NY July future remained within a range of 77 to 87 cents, while December future remained within a narrow range of 77 to 84.
• The NY Future market attempted to break out of these ranges multiple times but was unable to sustain those breakouts. This suggests that there may have been various attempts to push the market beyond these established price levels, but the momentum was not strong enough to sustain the price movement outside of the given ranges.
• NY July Future expired on 8th July, and now the front month is December. NY December new crop future stayed within a narrow range for the first 18 days but then started to trend upwards after the 18th July. Some short covering and speculative buying pulled the market to a new high of 87.90, but it eventually settled near the mid-eighties.
• During the August, the NY December Futures attempted multiple times to break out above the 88 cents level, but each attempt proved unsuccessful. The NY futures remained confined within a narrow range of 83 to 88 cents.
• The WASDE report delivered a bullish outlook as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the U.S. crop by 2.5 million bales. This bullish sentiment from the WASDE report initially pushed the NY futures toward the upper boundary of the established range.
Gujcot Fourth Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
We are here providing you comprehensive overview of the various factors affecting cotton prices and production during July-September period. Here's a summary of the key points:
1. Cotton Price NY Future Trends: The price of cotton in the NY futures market during July was in the range of 79-84 cents but moved higher to 84-88 cents in the following two months. There were attempts to break the resistance at 88 cents, but failed to sustain due to weaker demand and macroeconomic challenges.
"Navigating Challenges: A Recap of the 2022-23 Indian Cotton Market Season"
The Indian cotton market in the 2022-23 season witnessed a series of unique challenges and fluctuations, impacting both cotton mills and farmers. Here we provide an overview of the season, highlighting key events and factors that influenced cotton prices and market dynamics.
• In October, the New York Futures for December consistently fluctuate within a price range of 82 to 88 cents. On the other hand, March futures consistently exhibit a carrying cost with a price range of 84.5 to 88.5 cents.
• November was typically dominated by bears, characterized by sluggish trading throughout the month. In New York, December exhibited a wide trading range of 74.89 to 80.39 cents per lb, whereas March, the current lead month, remained stuck in a narrow range of 77.70 to 82.34 cents per lb. Month-over-month, December experienced a loss of 182 points, while March concluded with a 345 points loss.
Gujcot First Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2023-24
• In the month of October, both NY December and March futures commenced trading near 88 cents, experiencing a gradual decline. The market remained relatively stable during December, with NY March operating within a narrow range of 79 to 82 cents. The downward trend during this period was primarily attributed to factors such as the Gaza war and the Federal Reserve's decisions to decrease interest rates.
• This month, the bulls in the New York Futures market were delighted by the favorable cotton balancesheet of the United States as presented in the WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates). The market also received strong support from robust export sales, contributing to a positive sentiment among traders.
• Speculative interest in cotton saw a return, leading to a steady increase in open interest throughout the month.
• In the month of February, NY Future experienced a roller coaster ride, fueled by financial support and strategic acquisitions. Breaking through all psychological resistance barriers in the first week, it surged past the 90-point mark for the first time. By the end of first week, there were indications that NY Future might surpass the dollar threshold, reaching a high of 103.80 and closing near 99.57. Overall, NY May futures demonstrated a substantial gain of 13.16 points month-over-month.
Market Movement from 18th Mar 2024 to 23rd Mar 2024.
• The future outlook suggests a further decline in May future due to certified stock weight. In the week ending May, there was a loss of 241 points, followed by a 174-point loss in July. Consequently, July now carries an inverse trend. However, there's a slight improvement in the new crop December, gaining 27 points week over week. As a result, the inverse has narrowed to 790 points with July futures.
Gujcot Second Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2023-24
• During the last quarter, in February, the New York May Futures experienced a notable upward surge, surpassing the dollar mark and closing above it. However, in March, there was a continuous downward correction trend observed in the NY May Futures until the end of the month. By the end of March, NY May closed in the range of 90 to 91.38 cents.
Market Movement from 01st Apr 2024 to 06th Apr 2024.
• There was a bloodbath in the NY future, with increasing certified stocks experiencing a speculators liquidation. This long liquidation of spec positions converted continuing downward sentiment.
Market Movement from 08th Apr 2024 to 13th Apr 2024.
• There is a noticeable trend in NY cotton future market: many speculators are liquidating their long positions, driven by fear of delivery. Over the past three weeks, there's been a free fall in the market. In NY future, July is the leading month now. The increase in volume coupled with the decrease in open interest indicates that speculators are indeed liquidating their long positions. The anticipated tensions between Iran and Israel are exacerbating the situation.
Market Movement from 15th Apr 2024 to 20th Apr 2024.
• NY future is continuing its downward trend under the pressure of certified stock, exacerbated by escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, along with technical damage. Speculators are liquidating their long positions amidst these conditions.
Market Movement from 22nd Apr 2024 to 27th Apr 2024.
• The week began with a correction mode, but ultimately surrendered all gains by the week's end. The market, oversold as it was, seemed to overlook positive export figures. In July, the market remained nearly unchanged, ending the week with a loss of 12 points.
• During the past month, New York witnessed a surge of unsettling events, marked by a disturbing level of violence. Despite positive export figures and a neutral WASDE report, the market remained indifferent. The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, coupled with the certification of stock, exerted immense pressure on market dynamics.
Market Movement from 29th Apr 2024 to 04th May 2024.
• The week began with a glimmer of positivity on Monday, but the overall macroeconomic conditions, coupled with the Federal Reserve's decision to pause rate cuts, remained negative. Additionally, lower exports and shipments further fueled the downward trend in the market. By Thursday, the market had suffered a loss of nearly 500 points.
Market Movement from 06th Apr 2024 to 11th May 2024.
• On Wednesday, the New York futures market saw a temporary surge, reaching a high of 80 cents. However, this upward momentum couldn't hold steady amidst prevailing bearish sentiments. Decent export sales, the release of bearish WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports only intensified the downward pressure on the market. As a result, the New York July futures ultimately closed with a weekly loss of 75 points, while the December future weekly loss was 84 points.
Market Movement from 13th Apr 2024 to 18th May 2024.
• NY futures experienced another weekly loss, hitting the limit down on Tuesday but seeing some recovery on other days. Better expectations for the new crop, lower Chinese futures, and a bearish technical outlook contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Ultimately, NY July futures closed with a weekly loss of 142 points, while December futures closed with a loss of 16 points. The July-December inverse narrowed to just 92 points.
Market Movement from 20th May 2024 to 25th May 2024.
• After a long time, bulls have a reason to smile. Flooding in Brazil and crop losses in China have created positive sentiment and triggered short covering of speculators, leading to a good rally. New York July contracts closed with a week-over-week gain of 463 points, while December contracts gained 304 points week-over-week. As a result, the inverse spread between July and December widened to 251 points.
Market Movement from 27th May 2024 to 01st Jun 2024.
• At the start of the week, NY futures showed a bullish trend and crossed 82 after a long period. However, the rally was short-lived. Rains in Texas and some macroeconomic factors caused prices to drop in the last two days of the week, resulting in the market closing with a significant loss. July futures experienced a week-over-week loss of 437 points, and December futures closed with a week-over-week loss of 290 points. The July-December inverse narrowed to just 104 points.
• At the start of the month, NY Futures traded within a narrow range. Mid-month, there was an upward movement from the 75 cents to 80 cents range. However, the middle of the month saw more bearish activity. In the last week, the price briefly crossed 82 cents but failed to sustain this level and subsequently fell back below the 80-cent range.
Market Movement from 03rd Jun 2024 to 08th Jun 2024.
• NY July continues to experience weekly losses due to bearish fundamentals. Improved crop progress and lower shipments have intensified the bearish sentiment. NY July closed with a 231 points weekly loss, while NY December closed with a 222 points weekly loss. The July-December inverse widened to 95 points.
Market Movement from 10th Jun 2024 to 15th Jun 2024.
• The New York July future closed with a week-over-week loss of 287 points, while December future contract closed with a loss of 75 points week-over-week. This resulted in an inversion is now carrying December 117 points relative to July.
In India, a significant portion of the population relies on agriculture and agriculture-based businesses. Given the critical role that farmers play in the Indian economy and the food security of the nation, it is indeed the duty of the government to protect and support them. One of the key measures taken by the Government of India to protect farmers is the provision of a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for certain crops, especially Kharif crops.
Market Movement from 17th Jun 2024 to 22nd Jun 2024.
• The front month December saw a recovery after an initial loss at the beginning of the week. Despite the early setback, December managed to cover all losses and closed unchanged, with 7 cents gain week-over-week. On expiry, NY July future experienced a significant loss, but this was largely ignored by the market as all positions were shifted to December future contract.
Market Movement from 24th Jun 2024 to 29th Jun 2024.
• This week started on a bullish note, with short covering driving the market near the psychological number of 75 cents. However, poor export sales and higher planting numbers reversed the trend, bringing the market back to the 72 cents area. New York December closed with a smaller gain of 48 points week over week and loss of 242 points month over month.
