The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%
we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
Market Movement from 24th Aug 2020 to 29th Aug 2020
• China cancelled some old US cotton bargain but purchased new contract in weekly export sales. US Export Shipment was lower but good number of shipments to China is a positive sign for market.
Market Movement from 31st Aug 2020 to 05th Sep 2020
• This week was volatile and bull dominated week. NY December Future was able to cross 66 cents psychological level and made double top on 66.44 cents, but was not able to sustain and close over 66 cents. Weaker dollar and spec buying pulled NY futures but ultimately week ended with win-win at 64.99 Cents losing 9 point a week.
• U.S. Export Sales and shipment was good. Big quantity of shipment to China.
Market Movement from 14th Sep 2020 to 19th Sep 2020
• Week started with all bullish news. Bullish WASDE, hurricane Sally, weaker dollar. All these all factors created Bullish sentiment and NY December touched new high of 66.93 on Tuesday.
• Robust export sales on Thursday above 5 Lakh bales in which China bought above 4 Lakh bales. Despite good sales market closed in red and week closed with just 85 points weekly gain.
Market Movement from 21st Sep 2020 to 26th Sep 2020
• NY December future moved in very tight range of 1.5 cent and daily close was below 1% up or down, relatively market remained stable. Big decline in equity market was also ignored by cotton market. Strong dollar, huge sell off in equity, disappointing export sales were the reasons for market to decline but still cotton market was able to close above psychological support of 65 cents.
Market Movement from 28th Sep 2020 to 03rd Oct 2020
• NY December close as near to un change W/W. It was cross 66 for some time and go below to 65 for some time but close whole week in very tight range between 65.26 to 65.92.
• U.S. Export Sales was decent and now turkey was main buyer of us cotton.it will show positive sign.
• Next week's WASDE will give new direction to market.
Market Movement from 05th Oct 2020 to 10th Oct 2020
• This week was Bull dominated week. NY December gained 182 points during this week. Fear of damage due to Hurricane Delta and Weaker dollar were main reasons for the Bull run. Before WASDE NY December climbed to new high 68.68. Trade anticipated USDA to reduce U.S. crop to below 17 million bales but USDA almost maintained same crop as previous month which disappointed speculator. NY December closed at 67.64 after reaching new high.
Market Movement from 12th Oct 2020 to 17th Oct 2020
• This was Bull dominated week NY December gained 228 points during the week. Adverse weather in US and India, technical support to spec and steady pace of US export shipment are the main reasons of bull run.
• U.S. Export Sales was poor but shipment was decent to support Bull sentiment.
• ZCE China future gained over 1,000 RMB during week and Chinese buyers have supported whole world's cotton futures.
Market Movement from 19th Oct 2020 to 24th Oct 2020
• ICE cotton futures were down by 64 to 75 points on Friday, but ICE Dec contract gained 137 points during the week. From Friday to Friday, the Dec to March carry fell 9% to 0.58 cents (0.08%). With some profit taking on Friday market gave up some gain but still maintained weekly green closing. This was consecutive third week of upswing. Bull run was started and dominated by China’s ZCE futures.
Market Movement from 02nd Nov 2020 to 07th Nov 2020
• NY futures gained gradually during the week but gave up all gains on Friday. Finally NY December lost 30 points during the week. Uncertainty of US election results, increasing Covid-19 cases and lockdown in Europe has put pressure on equity and commodity markets. NY December future is near to notice day so main funds roll over their position to March. Spread between December/March is attractive.
Market Movement from 9th Nov 2020 to 14th Nov 2020
• Monday afternoon USDA issued its crop progress report and Tuesday USDA update its supply-demand estimates and also in these added Pfizer Inc said that its experimental Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective. So, this week market started with uptrend move on Monday but could not hold the gain during the week.
• NY Dec future contract gained 138 points on Monday and after that continuously lost. At the end of the week NY Dec future lost 16 points W/W.
Market Movement from 16th Nov 2020 to 21st Nov 2020
• NY December future is now on notice day so most of the trade rolled over to March. NY March is now lead month. Spread was attractive so roll over was easy. NY December gained 242 points while March gained 256 points during the week. This Bullish trend was due to some positive news of corona vaccine. Also, technically market was able to stay above trend line.
Market Movement from 23rd Nov 2020 to 28th Nov 2020
• On Monday market started this week with bullish trend with news of success of more COVID-19 vaccine but after that market remained stable during the week. Before Thanksgiving holiday market saw huge volatility but on Friday ICE March future was able to close the week with 28 points weekly gain.
• U.S. Export Sales was bullish with lower prices Vietnam (169,500 bales) and Bangladesh (89,400 bales) were major buyers.
Market Movement from 30th Nov 2020 to 05th Dec 2020
• This week was bear dominating week. NY March continuously closed in red for four day and on Friday closed in green but ultimately week closed with 167 points loss. Some profit booking and some harvest pressure put pressure on NY futures. Despite robust export sales and weaker dollar market closed in red.
Market Movement from 07th Dec 2020 to 12th Dec 2020
• This week was Bull dominated week. Market crossed 72 cents level at the start of the week and on Thursday there was double bonanza for bulls. Fantastic export sales and Bullish WASDE attracted new spec buying. Market has opened new range by crossing 74 cents mark for NY March future. NY March future closed with 251 points weekly gain. Technically it has crossed all resistance levels and set for higher range.
Market Movement from 14th Dec 2020 to 19th Dec 2020
• Cotton market was on bullish mood throughout the week. Bullish WASDE, excellent US export sales, weaker dollar and hope of economic recovery after start of Covid-19 vaccination program, all bullish factors created stage for uptrend in cotton market. NY March closed over 77 cents gaining 308 points during the week.
Market Movement from 28th Dec 2020 to 02nd Jan 2021
• Overall, this week was green week on NY Future. ICE Mar Future closed with 192 points gain and May future also gained 184 points during the week. And finally, at the end of the month Mar Future closed with 597 points gain and also May Future closed with 565 points gain monthly.
• With Decent U.S. Export Sales of last 3 weeks. Last week sales were slightly lower but good enough to cross USDA export target. Shipment also running with good pace.
Market Movement from 04th Jan 2021 to 09th Jan 2021
• Cotton future market started 2021 with a bang. March futures opened the holiday-shortened trading week slightly up at 78.25 cents per pound and surged to a fresh two year high of 80.93 cents on Wednesday. In fact, the open also served as the low for this week’s trading. March futures settled at 79.77, up 165 points for the week.
• 2020 is now in the rear view mirror. We gladly say good riddance as 2020 was not a good year for many and for many reasons. 2021 brings hope of better future.
Market Movement from 11th Jan 2021 to 16th Jan 2021
• This week was volatile week with help of bullish WASDE report. USDA reduced US Crop by one million bales and increased US export target by 2.5 Lakh Bales in January WASDE report. Which leaves U.S. ending stock at manageable number now. Also, world’s consumption increased in this WASDE and ending stock now remains at 96.32 million bales.
Market Movement from 18th Jan 2021 to 23th Jan 2021
• This week started with bullish trend due to weaker U.S. dollar. With new uptrend NY March crossed contract high of 83 cents. On Friday market lost around one cent with selloff in grain markets. ICE March future closed at 81.56 cent with 86 points weekly gain.
• Again U.S. Export Sales was decent above 3 lakh bales. Despite cancellation of 31,000 bales from China demand accrued from other destinations. Shipment also was good with China leading.
Market Movement from 25th Jan 2021 to 30th Jan 2021
• Cotton futures had its worst week in quite a while. March futures prices fell four out of five trading sessions from the high on last Friday at 81.56 cents per pound to Thursday’s low at 79.85 cents per pound. Some recovery was seen on Friday and closed the week at 80.64 cents per pound with 92 points weekly loss.
Market Movement from 01st Feb 2021 to 06th Feb 2021
• Before US Export Sales report on Thursday NY futures traded in small range during the week. After release of US export on Thursday market jumped up and registered new contract high of 80.84 and closed at 84.28 with 329 points gain. With profit taking on Friday market gave up half of Thursdays gain but still NY March future gained of 210 point during the week.
Market Movement from 08th Feb 2021 to 13th Feb 2021
• NY Future market remined highly volatile during this week in favor of bulls with triple digit gain on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday and triple digit loss on Wednesday. Over all NY March gained 453 points and NY May gained 464 points during the week.
Market Movement from 15th Feb 2021 to 20th Feb 2021
• This week started with Bullish mood and all four sessions ended in green. NY March future on notice and trade moved over to May future. NY March gained 168 points while NY May finished this week with 182 points weekly gain.
Market Movement from 22nd Feb 2021 to 27th Feb 2021
After 9 consecutive green close NY futures closed limit down on Thursday. Before that NY May climbed its new two and half year high to 95.60 on Thursday and return back to limit down so Thursday NY May closed down 591 points from its day’s high. After gaining nearly 500 points from last week NY May closed in red and lost 165 points W/W. There was no big reason for trend reversal but correction was due in over bought market condition.
Market Movement from 01st Mar 2021 to 06th Mar 2021
• Another bear dominated week on NY future market. After last week’s liquidation, market recovered a bit on Monday but recovery did not sustain and the week ended in red.
• NY May lost 107 points and NY July lost 104 points during this week.
Market Movement from 08th Mar 2021 to 13th Mar 2021
• This week was highly volatile week on future markets. Tuesday NY futures were limit down on heavy technical selling, May future closed at 84.32, looked like technical selling will continue with damaged charts but market recovered from next day. With the help of improved export sales and good shipment report market gained almost entire loss and closed the week nearly unchanged.
• USDA release WASDE report for March which was neutral to friendly.
Market Movement from 15th Mar 2021 to 20th Mar 2021
• This week was dominated by bears. Except Tuesday all four sessions of NY May future closed in red. Unpleasant U.S. China trade talk at Alaska put some negative impact on all commodities. So, despite decent export sales report NY May closed at 84.68 cents per pound with weekly loss of 288 points.
Market Movement from 22nd Mar 2021 to 27th Mar 2021
• A week of blood bath under total control of bears on cotton future markets. Particularly limit down on Thursday despite better US export sales report. Several reasons potentially combined to account for Thursday’s bearish implosion. Those include a stronger dollar, a weak looking chart, fear of Chinese retaliation over the banned Xinjian cotton, end-of-the-month adjustments, and a rise in global COVID-19 infections.
Market Movement from 29th Mar 2021 to 03rd Apr 2021
• Week started with minor green and stayed green till Wednesday. On Thursday after disappointing export sales report NY May sharply declined and closed 243 points in red. Technically market has lost upside momentum. Lockdown in Europe, strong dollar, export sales cancellation from China and Indonesia were main reasons for the sharp decline.
Market Movement from 05th Apr 2021 to 10th Apr 2021
• This week was double bonanza for Bulls. Decent export sales and Bullish WASDE has given full supports to Bull and NY May future gained 445 points W/W. May option is near to expire so roll over to July will starts from next week.
Market Movement from 12th Apr 2021 to 17th Apr 2021
• After weak opening of NY Futures on Monday, NY May future was able to close the week with 131 points gain and July future gained 129 points. Strong dollar put pressure on future market but technical and fundamental both supported uptrend in the market. Some weather report and outside forces weighed on the market. May future is now close to expiry and trade rolled over to July. May-July spread give full carry.
