The Season 2018 -2019 started with bullish sentiment in India. Indian cotton crop was predicted 343 lakh bales at the start of the season against 365 to 375 lakh bales of season 2017-2018. Opening stock was low and mills requirement of new cotton was high. With bull sentiment season touched double top at 47,150 on 15th October at the start of the season.
Gujarat cotton crop is estimated as 1,06,94,302 Bales out of which 2,75,000 Bales will be of V-797 rest will be Shankar-6. Gujarat cotton crop yield is expected to rise by 32.97% and crop is expected to increase by 30.83%
we estimate total Gujarat cotton pressing to be 120-125 Lakh Bales of 170 Kg.
Gujcot FIrst Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishes happy, healthy and earning new year 2023 to all our friends.
• Year 2022 taught us many lessons. We witnessed extremely high rates. NY cotton future near 158 cents per lb. and Indian physical cotton rate crossed Rs one lakh per candy. Some sweet and some bitter memories of year 2022. first quarter of the Indian new cotton season and second quarter of US new cotton season was dominated by bears.
Gujcot Second Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• Team Gujcot wishing happy and earning new financial year to all cotton friends.
• January-March quarter was volatile in all futures. Huge ups and downs were noticed during this period. Despite huge ups and downs range is very narrow. NY March was in 80.25 to 87.00 range while NY May moved in slightly bigger range of 76.54 to 88.02.
• The first half of the month saw a narrow range of 80 to 85 cents for NY futures, but the second half was bearish with a range of 76.5 to 81 cents. USDA released the WASDE report, which was nearly neutral and did not cause any significant volatility.
• During the month of May, NY July cotton future have not been able to break out of the long-term range of 79-86. The latest WASDE report was somewhat favorable for the market, with an increase in U.S. exports and a decrease in ending stocks. Export sales have been decent, leading the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to raise the US export estimate from 12.2 to 12.6 million bales.
Gujcot Third Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
• During the third quarter of the cotton season (April to June) NY July future remained within a range of 77 to 87 cents, while December future remained within a narrow range of 77 to 84.
• The NY Future market attempted to break out of these ranges multiple times but was unable to sustain those breakouts. This suggests that there may have been various attempts to push the market beyond these established price levels, but the momentum was not strong enough to sustain the price movement outside of the given ranges.
• NY July Future expired on 8th July, and now the front month is December. NY December new crop future stayed within a narrow range for the first 18 days but then started to trend upwards after the 18th July. Some short covering and speculative buying pulled the market to a new high of 87.90, but it eventually settled near the mid-eighties.
• During the August, the NY December Futures attempted multiple times to break out above the 88 cents level, but each attempt proved unsuccessful. The NY futures remained confined within a narrow range of 83 to 88 cents.
• The WASDE report delivered a bullish outlook as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the U.S. crop by 2.5 million bales. This bullish sentiment from the WASDE report initially pushed the NY futures toward the upper boundary of the established range.
Market Movement from 28th Aug 2023 to 02nd Sep 2023.
• "New York Cotton Futures for December demonstrated robust performance, increasing from 87.31 cents on August 25th to 89.95 cents on September 1st, resulting in a significant week-over-week gain of 2.64 cents. Furthermore, the month of August witnessed a notable upward trend, with prices rising from 84.72 cents on July 31st to 87.82 cents on August 31st, indicating a substantial month-over-month gain of 3.10 cents."
Market Movement from 04th Sep 2023 to 09th Sep 2023.
• It was a turbulent week in NY future. NY December surrendered all the gains from the previous week. China's increase in auction quantity has led to a sharp decline in the Chinese futures market, ZCE. Some farmers, engaged in price-fixing, and improved crop conditions have once again pushed prices below the 85 cents range, ultimately closing at 85.91 cents, resulting in a significant weekly loss of 404 points.
Market Movement from 18th Sep 2023 to 23rd Sep 2023.
• NY Dec futures traded at 86.44 on 15-Sep, dipped to 85.91 on 22-Sep, resulting in a week-over-week loss of 0.53 cents. NY December trading market exhibited a relatively tight trading range, fluctuating between 85.5 cents and 88.5 cents.
Market Movement from 25th Sep 2023 to 30th Sep 2023.
• The ICE December cotton futures traded at 87.15 cents per pound, reflecting an increase from its value of 85.91 cents on September 22nd. Throughout the week, there was a notable uptick in cotton prices, reaching a high of 89.89 cents per pound on September 28th, resulting in a week-to-week change of 1.24 cents to the upside. However, when comparing the monthly changes, the cotton futures showed a decrease.
Market Movement from 02nd Oct 2023 to 07th Oct 2023.
• Welcome, all cotton enthusiasts, to the start of the new 2023/24 season! This marks the first weekly report of the season, and we extend our best wishes for a prosperous and successful season ahead to all our fellow cotton enthusiasts.
• NY Dec cotton futures closed at 87.15 on September 29th, slipped to 87.14 on October 6th, resulting in a week-over-week loss of 0.01 cents.
Gujcot Fourth Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2022-23
We are here providing you comprehensive overview of the various factors affecting cotton prices and production during July-September period. Here's a summary of the key points:
1. Cotton Price NY Future Trends: The price of cotton in the NY futures market during July was in the range of 79-84 cents but moved higher to 84-88 cents in the following two months. There were attempts to break the resistance at 88 cents, but failed to sustain due to weaker demand and macroeconomic challenges.
Market Movement from 09th Oct 2023 to 14th Oct 2023.
• The NY December future closed at 86.06, recording a weekly loss of 1.08 cents.
• The main highlight of the week was a pronounced pre-WASDE loss on Wednesday, which was followed by a noticeable rebound in prices on Friday. These fluctuations were accompanied by concerns arising from a new conflict in Gaza, which sparked moments of panic within the market.
Market Movement from 16th Oct 2023 to 21st Oct 2023.
• This week in the New York Futures market, bearish sentiment dominated as the daily intraday performance of New York December futures experienced consistent downward movements, ultimately closing with narrow losses. The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict played a significant role in shaping the market's performance during this period.
"Navigating Challenges: A Recap of the 2022-23 Indian Cotton Market Season"
The Indian cotton market in the 2022-23 season witnessed a series of unique challenges and fluctuations, impacting both cotton mills and farmers. Here we provide an overview of the season, highlighting key events and factors that influenced cotton prices and market dynamics.
Market Movement from 23rd Oct 2023 to 28th Oct 2023.
• During the past week, the New York December market experienced a notable increase of 198 points week-over-week. This gain can be attributed to a combination of improved export sales and advantageous mill fixation rates.
• In October, the New York Futures for December consistently fluctuate within a price range of 82 to 88 cents. On the other hand, March futures consistently exhibit a carrying cost with a price range of 84.5 to 88.5 cents.
Market Movement from 30th Oct 2023 to 04th Nov 2023.
• On October 27, New York December cotton futures were valued at 84.38, but by November 3, their price had dropped to 79.62, marking a weekly decrease of 4.76 cents. NY December has dropped below 80 cent technical level so it open door of new bottom.
Market Movement from 06th Nov 2023 to 11th Nov 2023.
• Wishing to all our cotton friends a joyous and prosperous Diwali and a New Year filled with abundance. May this festival illuminate your lives with light, bless you with good health, and bring forth wealth and success.
• Team Gujcot extends our warmest wishes for an earning-rich and stress-free year ahead for all our cotton friends.
Market Movement from 13th Nov 2023 to 18th Nov 2023.
• This week, the New York futures market demonstrated stability with a modest upward trend. In particular, the December New York futures saw a gain of 160 points, while the March futures experienced a more significant increase of 201 points.
Market Movement from 20th Nov 2023 to 25th Nov 2023.
• NY Mar futures traded in narrow range this week. With consecutive large sell to China it covered major loss and recorded a decrease from 81.51 on 17-Nov to 80.99 on 24-Nov, reflecting a week-over-week loss of 0.52 cents.
• November was typically dominated by bears, characterized by sluggish trading throughout the month. In New York, December exhibited a wide trading range of 74.89 to 80.39 cents per lb, whereas March, the current lead month, remained stuck in a narrow range of 77.70 to 82.34 cents per lb. Month-over-month, December experienced a loss of 182 points, while March concluded with a 345 points loss.
Market Movement from 27th Nov 2023 to 02nd Dec 2023.
• The current leading month for Future March is now experiencing a stagnant phase within a narrow trading range, awaiting a clear direction. The closing value for NY March stands at 80.99, reflecting a weekly loss of 157 points.
Market Movement from 18th Dec 2023 to 23rd Dec 2023.
• NY March, the New York market exhibited a subdued performance, maintaining a narrow trading range as participants awaited a clear direction. NY Mar futures registered a decline from 79.93 on 15-Dec to 79.76 on 22-Dec, reflecting a week-over-week loss of 0.17 cents.
Market Movement from 25th Dec 2023 to 30th Dec 2023.
• NY March futures exhibited a notable week-over-week increase, rising from 79.76 cents on December 22nd to 81.00 cents on December 29th, reflecting a gain of 1.24 cents. Although robust export sales was ignored by market in low volume and festival time. Meanwhile, comparing month-to-month performance, NY March futures saw a rise from 80.06 cents on November 30th to 81.00 cents on December 29th, marking a gain of 0.94 cents.
Gujcot First Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2023-24
• In the month of October, both NY December and March futures commenced trading near 88 cents, experiencing a gradual decline. The market remained relatively stable during December, with NY March operating within a narrow range of 79 to 82 cents. The downward trend during this period was primarily attributed to factors such as the Gaza war and the Federal Reserve's decisions to decrease interest rates.
Market Movement from 08th Jan 2024 to 13th Jan 2024.
• Team Gujcot extends warm wishes for a joyous Makar Sankranti, Happy Lohri, and a delightful Pongal to all our friends in the cotton community. May the festivities bring prosperity, happiness, and abundant success to everyone!
Market Movement from 15th Jan 2024 to 20th Jan 2024.
• With the assistance of strong export sales, NY March, successfully broke through the psychological resistance at 82 cents and surpassed a new high level at 84 cents. This resulted in a week-over-week gain of 264 points.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 11-Jan-2024, U.S. export sales data for the 2023-2024 season reveals net upland sales of 4,20,000 bales, with upland shipments reaching 2,57,700 bales.
• This month, the bulls in the New York Futures market were delighted by the favorable cotton balancesheet of the United States as presented in the WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates). The market also received strong support from robust export sales, contributing to a positive sentiment among traders.
• Speculative interest in cotton saw a return, leading to a steady increase in open interest throughout the month.
Market Movement from 29th Jan 2024 to 03rd Feb 2024.
• This week witnessed a bullish trend in the New York future market. Supported by strong export sales and impressive shipment figures, NY Future for March broke through and closed above 87 cents for the first time, registering a substantial gain of 274 points.
Market Movement from 05th Feb 2024 to 10th Feb 2024.
• The NY March future experienced a significant surge in a huge bull run, driven by bullish WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) for the US current year. Technical indicators showed a notable crossing of the 90 cents mark for the first time in two seasons. This prompted a combination of technical buying, new speculative buying, and some short covering, resulting in a substantial week-over-week gain of 467 points.
Market Movement from 12th Feb 2024 to 17th Feb 2024.
• Despite strong buying from funds and speculators, NY futures have faced resistance at the 96 cents level, resulting in a partial retracement of gains. Despite March gains nearing a crucial point, the market remains bullish. Export sales, although lower than previous weeks, are not viewed negatively, contributing to a positive market outlook.
Market Movement from 19th Feb 2024 to 24th Feb 2024.
• In the week-to-week comparison, the New York March futures gained 106 points, whereas the May futures experienced a loss of 93 points. With March now concluded, the focus has shifted to the front month, which is now represented by the New York May futures.
Market Movement from 26th Feb 2024 to 02nd Mar 2024.
• The New York futures market witnessed a highly volatile week, marked by both limit-up and limit-down days. The value of NY May surged to a new high, breaching the dollar mark and reaching an impressive 103.80 cents from its initial position at 93 cents. However, the market experienced a retracement, settling back to 95.57. Ultimately, despite the significant fluctuations, the weekly gain amounted to just 208 points.
• In the month of February, NY Future experienced a roller coaster ride, fueled by financial support and strategic acquisitions. Breaking through all psychological resistance barriers in the first week, it surged past the 90-point mark for the first time. By the end of first week, there were indications that NY Future might surpass the dollar threshold, reaching a high of 103.80 and closing near 99.57. Overall, NY May futures demonstrated a substantial gain of 13.16 points month-over-month.