Market Movement from 07th Apr 2025 to 12th Apr 2025.

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• After the shock from last week's tariff news, the market recovered as the tariff pause was announced for all countries except China. The NY May futures closed with a week-on-week gain of 253 points.
• The WASDE report was somewhat neutral overall.
• The April 2025 USDA-WASDE report for cotton shows a slight reduction in the U.S. 2024-25 export forecast by 1,00,000 bales to 10.9 million, raising ending stocks to 5.0 million bales, while the average upland farm price remains at 63 cents per pound. Globally, cotton production, consumption, and trade are all down, with production declines in Argentina and Cote d’Ivoire outweighing gains in China. Mill use drops by 5,20,000 bales due to decreases in China and Indonesia, despite a rise in Turkey. Global imports and exports also decline, with reduced exports from major suppliers like the U.S., Australia, and Brazil. Beginning stocks are slightly up due to revisions for Egypt, and world ending stocks increase by over 5,20,000 bales, driven by stock builds in China, the U.S., and others, partially offset by declines in Turkey and Argentina.
• Export sales and shipments were decent and above the required pace. However, despite the improved pace, the USDA reduced the export target by 1,00,000 bales.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 03-Apr-2025, U.S. cotton export sales showed moderate activity. Net sales of upland cotton for the 2024-2025 marketing year totaled 1,15,000 bales, while shipments were strong at 3,77,200 bales. Net sales of Pima cotton reached 2,700 bales, with shipments of 8,000 bales. Combined, total sales for the current marketing year amounted to 1,17,700 bales. For the upcoming 2025-2026 marketing year, net upland sales were reported at 18,900 bales, with no new Pima sales recorded, bringing total forward sales to 18,900 bales.

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• The Gujcot Spot Rate showed a generally upward trend. On Monday, the rate stood at ₹53,550, rising slightly to ₹53,700 on Tuesday. It saw a minor dip to ₹53,600 on Wednesday but recovered on Thursday to ₹53,800. The week ended with further appreciation, reaching ₹53,900 on Friday. Saturday’s rate was ₹54,000.
• The Indian physical market remained firm. Approximately 85% of the arrivals are complete, with the majority of the stock held by the government. In the open market, arrivals are estimated to be around 50,000 to 60,000, leading to a supply crunch. This limited availability is supporting a strong market trend.
• The rate of Shankar-6 is currently close to the 54,000 level, and selling activity appears to be limited or tight.
• CCI has already offloaded nearly 22 lakh bales. However, mills have no other option but to source their requirements from it.
• The Indian basis has narrowed due to firm New York futures and a weaker rupee, while the domestic market remains steady.
• During this week, the Indian basis remained between 12.35 and 14.16.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed a generally upward trend before slightly declining by the end of the week. On Monday, the rate stood at 85.83 and rose steadily to 86.27 on Tuesday and 86.69 on Wednesday, maintaining the same level on Thursday. However, by Friday, the rate eased to 86.04, indicating a minor correction after midweek stability.
• Hope for best