Gujcot Trade Assocation

GUJCOT MONTHLY RATE MOVEMENT REPORT– JANUARY-2025

Posted : February 05, 2025

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

Daily Physical Spot Rate

MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

Cotlook Index

ICE Future Closing

NCDEX Kapas Rate

MCX Future Closing

NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

The NY Futures showed little movement throughout the month, with the March contract trading within a narrow range of 68.68 to 65.88 cents per lbs. On the last day of the month, it broke the psychological support level of 66 cents, closing just below it at 65.88. NY May Future also followed March and made a distance of carry by nearly one cent.
There were significant events, such as a bearish WASDE report and the transfer of power in the U.S. to Republican President Donald Trump. The ceasefire in Gaza had no significant impact on the cotton market, leading to high volatility. Ultimately, NY March future closed with a monthly loss of 252 points, while NY May future closed with a monthly loss of 245 points.
Even Cotlook remained in a very narrow range of 77.25 to 79.05 cents per lbs, indicating very low volatility throughout the trade.
U.S. exports performed well compared to December, but China remained absent from buying due to tariff concerns. Overall sales were strong for the month, though shipments are lagging behind.
The Indian physical market remains under pressure. At the beginning of the month, the S6 rate was near and slightly above the 54,000 Rs per candy level, but it continued to decline, eventually breaking the psychological support of the 53,000 mark. Despite significant support from the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) through Minimum Support Price (MSP) purchases, the rate failed to sustain at a stable level.
In January, daily cotton arrivals across India initially exceeded 2 lakh bales but gradually declined over the month. However, by the end of the month, arrivals remained above 1,70,000 bales per day. Notably, from Monday to Friday, arrivals were consistent, but during the last two days, the absence of purchasing by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) led to a slowdown in arrivals.
These four months typically reflect the selling behavior of farmers. Farmers, particularly in South India and Maharashtra, tend to be aggressive sellers, whereas those in North India and Gujarat are more reluctant to sell. However, overall, the first four months of the season have seen a record-high arrival of produce.
The Indian rupee weakened throughout the month, which was supportive of yarn sales for mills.
During the month, the dollar strengthened against the rupee, rising from 85.50 to 86.63.
The Indian basis typically stays between 11.50 and 12.50 on most days of the month.
The arrival in South India will be slower next month, while Central India will experience a major increase in arrivals.
Hope for the best in the coming month.