Gujcot Second Quarterly Rate Movement Report – 2021-22
Posted : November 29, 2023
Dear All Cotton Friends,
In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.
In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.
- MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate
- USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing
- NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.
- This quarter was dominated by bulls on NY Cotton futures.
- At start of the January, NY March was near 110 cents and NY May was near 112 cents. March settled at 117 cents but NY May got a good bull run and touched 141.80 cents intraday high and closed with 1657 points monthly gain. NY July stayed inverted to NY May by 200 to 400 points but new crop December was highly inverted during this quarter from 1100 to 2000 points finally on 31st march July December inverse was 2079 points.
- Chinese quota, lower Indian crop, huge mills on-call purchase was main reasons for bull market.
- Russia- Ukraine war, Higher Planting intention reports of US cotton for new season were bearish factors for the market but market ignored all bearish factors and advanced to new high.
- In January Indian physical cotton market started near 70,000 Rs per candy for Gujarat Shankar-6. Though it was historical high rate farmers and ginners anticipated higher rate and kept holding the cotton and they succeed by getting extremely high rate of 90,000 Rs per candy at the end of the March.
- COCPC in last meeting estimated Indian cotton crop number at 340 lakh bales, but Indian production numbers are debatable. USDA estimate for the same is 326 lakh bales. While market players anticipate very low crop than above numbers which created sentiment of bull-run supported by New York feature.
- Indian cotton is not viable for export but supply chain issues at other ports forced neighboring countries to buy Indian cotton. Also, India is big market for sourcing of organic cotton. During this full quarter Indian basis remained very high.
- At the start of the quarter Indian mills procured good order of yarn so they were carrying good quantity of cotton and supported the bull market but in March it was reversed and mills were losing.
- Indian rupee was near 74 Rs a dollar at the start of the quarter but in later part it crossed 76.80 Rs a dollar with increasing crude oil price.
- This quarter was good for Indian farmers and ginners but coming time will challenging for Indian mills and whole textile value chain.
- Hope for best.