Monthly Rate Movement

• Month of January was fully dominated by bulls. ICE March contract advanced from 113 to 127 cents, nearly 11% and Indian Shankar 6 advanced from 70,000 to 77,000 nearly 10%.
• Factors driving NY futures were WASDE, Effect of Omicron virus spread, Ukraine conflict, equity market and currency. Many negative factors were ignored by market and trend remained upward and every low gave a new high.
• During the month US export sales were decent and positive for the market but yet shipment is lagging behind to reach new reduced export target also.
• Mills has to fix lots of cotton on NY March and they have to buy future that is main factor for speculators to stand firm in long position. 
• Chinese futures also stand high but not same up back to back with other markets.
• Indian Shankar 6 price crossed 77,000 Rs per Candy mark and created life time high rate. Farmers in India are happy getting 10,000 to 11,000 Rs per quintal rate of kapas.
• Indian arrival is nearly 1,70,000 to 2,00,000 per day so, we think in January all Indian arrival will be near or above 50 lakh bales.
• Gujarat arrivals were remained near 45,000 to 50,000 per day.
• Indian cotton futures first time crossed 38,000 per bale and stayed near it at the close of the month.
• Due to huge ups and downs in cottonseed prices, ginners parity changed but overall due to continuous uptrend in cotton ginners are happy with earning in January.
• Indian rupee remained stable near 74 to 75.50 during the month but with up the trend in NY, Indian basis changed from 1,150 points on to just 450 points on at the close of the month. In other words, Indian cotton became little cheaper at the end of the month compare to other origin. But compare to Cotlook, Indian offer is much higher than Cotlook index so orders from abroad is limited.
• Despite rise in cotton rate, yarn prices remained steady. So, spinners margin is reduced and in some counts it is below parity but spinners have enjoyed good margin in last year so they will manage disparity for some time.