NCC survey: U.S. producers will plant 13 million acres in 2020

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 13 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.5% from 2019 (based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February 2020 estimate), according to the National Cotton Council’s 39th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey.

Upland cotton intentions are 12.8 million acres, down 5.6% from 2019, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 224,000 acres represent a 2.7% decline. The survey results were announced at the NCC’s recent 2020 Annual Meeting in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s vice president, economics and policy Analysis, said, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather, insect pressures and agronomic conditions play a significant role in determining crop size.”

She said that with abandonment assumed at 13.8% for the United States, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 11.2 million acres. Using an average U.S. yield per harvested acre of 848 pounds generates a cotton crop of 19.8 million bales, with 19.1 million upland bales and 675,000 ELS bales.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2019 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked them for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2019 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.

“History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” Campiche said. “The cotton-to-corn and cotton-to-soybean price ratios are lower than in 2019 due to lower cotton prices and higher corn and soybean prices. A price ratio decrease generally indicates a decline in cotton acreage. For the 2020 crop year, corn, soybeans and wheat are expected to provide modestly more competition for cotton acres.”

See Prospective 2020 U.S. Cotton Area in PDF