SECOND QUARTERLY RATE MOVEMENT 2020-21
Posted : September 30, 2023
Dear All Cotton Friends,
In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.
In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.
- MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate
- USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing
- NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.
- New year 2021 started with hope for whole textile value chain. NY March future started from 78 cents and May future started from 79 cents. During theses three months both the futures have never came to the same rate again. Futures travel towards intraday high of 94 cents and at the end of March month NY May future remained in 80 cents area.
- March WASDE was neutral. USDA cut US production and ending stock which turned out to be slightly bullish for NY Futures. World projections also cut production, Increased consumption resulting in decline of Ending stock to nearly 94 million bales.
- U.S. Export Sales was decent and far beyond required pace to meet USDA projections. At the end of March, they crossed target of 15.5 million statistical bales. As per last report US has committed 15.31 million running bales and so far, 99.6 million bales have been shipped. USDA may Increase export sales target in next WASDE.
- Chinese future also reacted back to back with NY futures and crossed 16,000 mark but after decline in NY futures again stand near to low of 15,000 mark. China still has not declared reserve sales policy and also New Year’s import quota.
- Pakistan’s crop fell short of estimates so they remained among the main importers.
- On International front trade talk between China and US was not fruitful. It gave negative impact on market. Outside forces like volatility in grains and other commodities, big money flow from funds, movement of currency guided the market more than real fundamentals.
- Indian physical market started this quarter at around 42,400 Rs per Candy from New Year and crossed 46,000 Rs per Candy levels at the start of March. Again, with spec selling market stayed around 45,000 Rs per Candy levels.
- CCI was main winner by procuring nearly 92 Lakh bales and able to offload major stock of last year and almost 50% stock of current year procurement.
- Indian cotton consumers enjoyed huge parity in spinning. So excess arrivals absorbed by mill buying and market did not feel the burden of huge arrivals.
- Basis wise Indian cotton was the cheapest from the start of the season but when NY future crossed 90 cents mark Indian basis were too low to -1300 points. It was an opportunity for basis players. Indian physical market did not react back to back with up or down in NY futures so, when NY declined to below 80 Indian basis was at par with NY May future.
- Due to cheaper basis and easy availability of cotton from CCI has given good chance to Indian exporters and Indian export reached around 45 lakh bales till March end.
- Better orders and good margin to Indian mill was main event of uptrend in India. Also supported by world market and as luxury of cheaper cotton with various quality Indian mills are first winner of this quarter.
- At present In India there is huge stock with fast arrival but stock is absorbed in hand of Mills, MNC, Government and trade. Still 6 months to go for new season, ginners and traders are not in hurry to offload their long.
- Over all first quarter of year 2021 and second quarter of cotton season 2020/2021 was beneficial to whole textile value chain and hope this full season give various opportunities to earn well to all stakeholders.