Gujcot Trade Assocation

MONTHLY RATE MOVEMENT REPORT JULY-2025

Posted : August 02, 2025

Dear All Cotton Friends,

In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.

In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.

Daily Physical Spot Rate

MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate

USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing

Cotlook Index

ICE Future Closing

NCDEX Kapas Rate

MCX Future Closing

NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate

We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.

New York futures remained stuck in a very narrow range between 67 to 69 cents. Despite some neutral to bearish cues from the WASDE report and tariff threats from President Trump, and some bullish support from better-than-expected export data, the market largely ignored both factors and remained stagnant. July NY contract expired within the same range, and most positions have now shifted to the December contract. Notably, call option purchases in December remain significantly higher than call sales, indicating speculative interest.
Overall, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is nearing a checkmate scenario, with the market remaining directionless and volatility extremely low. NY December closed with a monthly loss of 88 points, while NY March ended down 86 points month-on-month.
U.S. export performance exceeded expectations, prompting USDA to revise its annual export estimate to 11.8 million bales in the latest WASDE report. The actual shipment is now close to this target, with potential for another 1 lakh bales before the marketing year ends. However, forward sales for next year remain relatively weak, which could impact the following season’s outlook.
In India, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) witnessed strong sales during the first half of the month. CCI has consistently raised its base price, and the market responded positively with increased buying interest, pushing prices from ₹55,000 to ₹57,500 per candy. Some stock lots were sold at exceptionally high rates. Due to the sharp decline in daily arrivals — now just 15,000 to 20,000 bales — mills have no alternative sourcing other than CCI, prompting aggressive purchases. Speculative buying further supported demand.
As of now, CCI has offloaded nearly 70% of its stock. A weaker Indian rupee supported yarn exports, but Indian mills continue to struggle with export parity. Indian basis premiums shot up to 1,600–1,700 points over NY December futures due to strong domestic prices, despite steady U.S. futures.
Due to tariff concerns and slow exports, the Indian rupee depreciated from 85.50 to 87.51 per U.S. dollar during the month.
Monsoon progressed well across India in July, with good rainfall despite brief breaks. As a result, the cotton crop is progressing well. All-India cotton sowing has reached approximately 103 lakh hectares, slightly lower than the same period last year. Gujarat's sowing has reached 20.17 lakh hectares, which is still behind last year's corresponding level of 23.15 lakh hectares.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal rainfall for August, raising hopes for a good crop going forward.
Hope for better for next month