FIRST QUARTERLY RATE MOVEMENT 2020-21
Posted : January 25, 2021
Dear All Cotton Friends,
In our mission to give Daily Spot Rate Team Gujcot is getting valuable support from Gujcot broker’s panel. We appreciated their humble service to the trade. Gujcot Team is giving daily closing of Indian and foreign futures rates.
In this report we have provided Following Rates during the month.
- MCX Cotton Daily Closing Rate
- USD-INR Exchange Rate Closing
- NCDEX and MCX converted into Rs. Candy Rate
We hope it will be useful to all the stake holders of Textile Value Chain.
- First quarter of new the season 2020/2021 completed with cheers. This quarter was joyful to whole textile value chain. After big pain of covid-19 economic activities resumed. At the start of the season nobody expected demand to recover so fast but world has learned to live with corona and fight back to return on daily activities. Season started with bottom created by hype of failure of demand but we saw fast recovery in demand and prices advanced beyond anybody’s expectation. This quarter was a smiling quarter for whole textile value chain throughout the world.
- NY December future was lead month at the start of the season and March was lead month from November last week. NY Dec opened 65.91 cents on 1st Oct and touched high of 72 cents and closed nearly at 71 cents. NY March was lead month during December started at 72 cents and closed at 78 cents with huge gain. Both futures saw good recovery during this quarter.
- China was a leading buyer of US cotton and committed huge quantity of US cotton. China was also aggressive buyer in all other commodities because they managed to control corona in early stage and their economy recovered faster. Also, they looked eager to complete phase1 of US-China trade deal.
- American election was also a big event for speculators. All markets remained very volatile during election period.
- USDA estimated US crop too high than market expectation in October and November WASDE but they revised and reduced to below 16 million bales in December WASDE. December WASDE was too bullish and robust export sales added fuel to fire. At the end of December future market crossed 78 cents first times during new season.
- Robust export sales, weaker dollar, funds money, stimulus package, and Bullish WASDE were main reasons to achieve new high on NY march future.
- Gujcot spot rate old crop started at 36,700 on 1st October and new crop opened at 38,850 on 15th October and crossed 40,000 levels in short period of time and touched high of Rs 42,450 per candy in November. Market stabilized between 40,500 and 42,450 during the last month of the quarter.
- V-797 rate trawled from 23,250 to 27,550 during this quarter.
- Indian Government has declared new MSP higher than last year. And under MSP Procurement Government has procured 75,03,914 Bales equivalent of kapas till 31st December.
- Due to very speedy government procurement, Indian physical market remained supported. Farmers well responded to government procurement which led to historically high arrivals during first quarter of the season at nearly 165 to 175 lakh bales. Particularly during the month of December daily arrivals crossed three lack bales many times.
- Although Gujarat was not among the part of huge all India arrivals. Gujarat arrival was as usual as last year. Even CCI procured only approx. 2,40,000 bales in Gujarat.
- MCX Spot Rate remained between 17,540 to 20,370.
- Indian currency has started the journey from 73.14 and after being depreciated to 73.06 again came back to same level at the end of the quarter.
- Indian cotton export did not pick up despite attractive Indian basis. In world market China is buyer to fulfill its obligation of phase 1 of US-China trade deal and Pakistan is buyer as they in shortfall of production other buyers are slow and steady buyer. So, despite cheaper India prices India was able to export hardly 2 million bales.