Posted : May 14, 2021


This month’s 2020/21 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 250,000 bales to 14.7 million, based on the March 9 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s U.S. area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2021 Crop Production report. Consumption is reduced 100,000 bales due to the industry’s lagging recovery from the previous year’s sharp losses. Ending stocks are 100,000 bales lower this month at 4.2 million bales. The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of 69.0 cents per pound is up 1 cent from last month.

The global 2020/21 cotton supply and demand estimates show lower production and ending stocks compared with last month, but higher mill use and trade. Estimated global production is reduced nearly 830,000 bales, largely due to lower Brazilian and U.S. production. Cotton import pace and indications of recovering global consumption helped boost consumption estimates for Turkey, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam, more than offsetting lower projections for the United States and Taiwan. Imports are also projected higher in the countries with larger consumption, and the forecast for 2020/21 world trade is more than 600,000 bales higher this month. On the export side, higher Indian exports account for most of the increase as auctions by the Cotton Corporation of India have released much of the cotton purchased last year under the Minimum Support Price program. World ending stocks in 2020/21 are forecast 1.1 million bales lower than last month, at 94.6 million bales.

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