August 19, 2021
By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market finished sharply lower Thursday as traders took to heart the Federal Reserve’s minutes, revealing its intention of initiating their tapering process in the fourth quarter this year. Beyond cotton, the grains, metals, energies, and other financial markets declined as well.
Just this week cotton posted a nine-year high, as speculators and end-users bought the rally. Volume that day was huge, but since that time, prices have retreated as the market is in the throes of correcting its overbought condition.
To that end, Friday’s CFTC commitment of traders report could shed some light as to what trading entities are net long what amount. It is thought the managed-money funds have at least tied their February high position of being some 80,000-plus or minus contracts net long.
Weather-wise the six- to 10-day forecast is showing much above-normal temperatures for the Delta and the Southeast, but slightly above-normal for Texas. Potential rainfall looks normal for Texas, but above normal for the Delta and the Southeast.
Heading into Friday, December cotton is down 1.56 cents on the week but up 3.37 cents on the month and up 19.06 cents on the year.
For Thursday, December settled at 92.76 cents, down 2.07 cents, March ended at 91.95 cents, down 2.00 cents and December 2022 ended at 82.79 cents, 1.28 cents lower; estimated volume was 29,108 contracts.