August 31, 2021
By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
Failing to let Hurricane Ida bullishly motivate prices, the cotton market took a nosedive Tuesday. Nervously long speculators and unpriced growers collectively slanted to the sell side. In fact, as one subscriber said to us, “the tug of harvest is in the air.” With that notion, December cotton is edging ever closer to having an “eight handle” on its price.
Traders are anxious to see Thursday’s weekly export sales. There has been some industry chatter that central American mills may be taking on a bigger role in the textile industry, because of its proximity to the U.S. mainland. Last week’s business showed El Salvador as top buyer in both crop years. Honduras was in the mix as well, but China was noticeably absent.
Monday’s weekly crop progress report showed 70% of the U.S. cotton crop was rated good to excellent, which was off 71% from the previous week. The 10-year average is 47% good to excellent. In addition, USDA reported 21% of the U.S. crop had bolls open, compared to the previous week’s 14% open, and 28% a year ago.
Barring any impending adverse weather during harvest, it is likely the crop may come in larger than the August WASDE. However, the potential for an acres dispute between USDA and FAS may result in a bottom-line change in production.
For Tuesday, December settled 92.53 cents, down 1.70 cents, March ended at 91.77 cents, down 1.66 cents and December 2022 ended at 82.69 cents, 0.93 cent lower; estimated volume was 32,972 contracts.