USDA -WASDE Report
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production and ending stocks but lower mill use and exports. Production is 211,000 bales higher—at 14.2 million bales—mainly due to higher yields in the Delta and Southeast. Mill use is lowered 100,000 bales reflecting reduced spinning levels to date and weaker expectations for future demand. A reduction in expected world demand and trade results in a 250,000-bale decrease for U.S. cotton exports, down to 12.25 million. Ending stocks are now expected to be 500,000 bales higher than they were a month earlier, but the upland cotton season-average farm price is unchanged at 85 cents per pound.
The global 2022/23 cotton forecasts include lower production, consumption, and trade, but higher ending stocks. Production is down 700,000 bales from the previous month’s forecast, led by an 800,000-bale decline in Pakistan’s flood-damaged crop. Australian production is estimated 500,000 bales lower, and Mali’s crop is reduced 120,000 bales. Higher than expected yields in Turkey resulted in a 500,000-bale upward revision. Global consumption is down 3.3 million bales from the previous month, and on a year-to-year basis world cotton use is now projected to decline 4.9 percent, similar to the decline experienced in 2021/22. This month’s changes to 2022/23 consumption include 1.0-million-bale reductions for China and India, and smaller reductions for Pakistan, Turkey, and Vietnam. Projected world trade is cut 950,000 bales this month, with imports reduced for China, Turkey, and Vietnam. Exports are reduced for Australia, Mali, Malaysia, India, and Brazil. World ending stocks are projected 2.3 million bales higher this month, and at 89.6 million bales are 4.1 million higher than in 2021/22.