COTTON: In this month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton projections, beginning stocks are larger, and a 2.5- million-bale decrease in production results in lower exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are larger as this month’s 2022/23 ending stocks are increased 450,000 bales reflecting slightly lower exports and July 29 warehouse inventory levels in the AMS Bales Made Available for Shipment report. NASS’s first survey-based estimate of production for 2023/24 is 14.0 million bales, down 2.5 million, with the crop reduced by higher projected abandonment and reduced yield in the Southwest. Exports are projected 1.3-million bales lower than in July due to reduced U.S. supply and increased competition from Brazil and Australia. Ending stocks are 700,000 bales lower, at 3.1 million bales. The U.S. season-average price for upland cotton is forecast 3 cents higher this month at 79 cents per pound.
Global 2023/24 production is forecast 2.7 million bales lower this month, and consumption is 500,000 bales higher, resulting in a decrease in projected ending stocks of 2.9 million bales. In addition to the U.S. crop change, world production is reduced an additional 200,000 bales as extreme heat in Uzbekistan reduced yield prospects. World trade is 400,000 bales higher this month, with increases in imports by China and Turkey. Projected exports are also higher this month as increases for Brazil and Australia offset declines for the United States and Benin. Consumption in 2023/24 is projected higher than a month ago in China and Turkey, and lower in Indonesia.