GUJCOT Weekly Report 26-Aug-2023
Posted : September 30, 2023
Market Movement from 21st Aug 2023 to 26th Aug 2023.
- New York December cotton futures recorded a value of 83.62 on August 18, which then rose to 87.31 on August 25, resulting in a weekly loss of 3.69 cents.
- The strong demand in China has exerted a significant pull on the commodity market, specifically impacting the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE). As a result of this robust Chinese demand, the ICE December cotton future contract has experienced a substantial gain of 369 points. This positive market movement has occurred in spite of challenges such as lower export sales and a strengthened dollar. The market seems to be overlooking these factors and instead, placing emphasis on the prevailing Chinese demand.
- In the 2023-2024 season, U.S. cotton export sales displayed mixed results, with net Upland sales at 38,900 bales, accompanied by substantial Upland shipments of 204,200 bales, and a moderate contribution from net Pima sales at 1,300 bales, with 9,600 bales of Pima shipped. This culminated in a total sales volume of 40,200 bales. Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, Upland sales surged significantly to 52,800 bales, although there were no recorded net Pima sales, resulting in a total sales volume of 52,800 bales for the season. These figures reflect the evolving landscape of U.S. cotton exports over the respective periods.
- Throughout the week, the Gujcot Spot Rate demonstrated a fluctuating trend, starting at 60,600 on Monday, slightly dipping to 60,450 on Tuesday, further decreasing to 60,250 on Wednesday, experiencing a marginal drop to 60,100 on Thursday, and finally recovering to 60,200 on Friday.
- A new crop arrival has commenced in Northern India, which is having a notable impact on the market dynamics. The current rate of produce from the North has become a reliable indicator for predicting price movements. Interestingly, even following a significant crash in prices within the span of a day, the rate of Northern produce has managed to stabilize.
- Both Gujarat and Maharashtra are still making substantial contributions to the overall arrival of cotton.
- The daily cotton arrival in India is approximately 35,000 bales, with Gujarat accounting for nearly 10,000 bales per day.
- The latest All India Cotton Sowing report as of August 25, 2023, highlights diverse trends in cotton cultivation across states. Punjab noted a substantial 32.13% decrease, while Haryana saw a slight rise of 2.23%. Rajasthan's cotton sowing grew by 21.18%, contributing to North India's 4.68% increase. Gujarat's sowing expanded by 5.50%, but Maharashtra dipped by -0.18%. Central India observed a 2.14% rise, while Telangana and Andhra Pradesh decreased by -6.85% and -35.49% respectively. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu also saw declines of -15.90% and -26.04%. Overall, South Zone's sowing fell by -14.00%. Orissa increased by 8.20%, while the "Others" category dropped by -33.46%. Nationally, All India's cotton sowing contracted by -1.82%. Source: Department of Agriculture Cooperation & Farmer Welfare - Government of India.
- Over the course of the week, the USD-INR exchange rate displayed a series of fluctuations, commencing at 83.10 on Monday, showing a decrease to 82.93 on Tuesday, followed by a further decline to 82.68 on Wednesday. The trend continued with a minor drop to 82.57 on Thursday, before experiencing a slight rebound to 82.64 on Friday.
- The progress of the monsoon has been notably sluggish, and the entire cotton-growing region is in need of substantial rainfall.