GUJCOT WEEKLY REPORT 16-SEP-2023
Posted : September 30, 2023
Market Movement from 11th Sep 2023 to 16th Sep 2023.
- NY Dec cotton futures saw a weekly gain, rising from 85.91 cents on September 8th to 86.44 cents on September 15th, marking an increase of 0.53 cents.
- The past week proved to be quite volatile for NY future. It began with a sense of optimism as the market showed gains, with prices inching closer to the 88 cent mark. However, despite the initial bullish sentiment, the market couldn't sustain the momentum and eventually surrendered some of those gains. As a result, the week concluded with only marginal increases.
- The September 2023 USDA-WASDE report highlights changes in the cotton market for the 2023/24 season. In the U.S., there are higher beginning stocks attributed to increased warehouse and in-transit stocks from the previous year, yet cotton production is projected to decrease significantly by 860,000 bales, with exports down by 200,000 bales, leading to a 100,000-bale reduction in ending stocks. The season-average price for upland cotton in 2023/24 is expected to be 80 cents per pound, a 1-cent increase from the previous month. Globally, the report shows lower beginning stocks, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks compared to the previous month, driven by consumption revisions in China and Turkey, production reductions in various countries, and a decrease in world consumption and trade, resulting in a 1.6 million bale reduction in world ending stocks to 90.0 million bales.
- U.S. Export Sales for the week ending September 15, 2023, in the 2023-2024 season showed net upland sales of 67,500 bales and upland shipments of 118,200 bales, while net Pima sales amounted to 1,000 bales with Pima shipments at 7,500 bales, resulting in a total of 68,500 bales. Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, there were net upland sales of 25,300 bales and no recorded Pima sales, bringing the total to 25,300 bales.
- During the past week, the Gujcot Spot Rate for cotton displayed marginal fluctuations with a starting rate of 61,500 on Monday, a slight increase to 61,900 on Tuesday, a subsequent dip to 61,750 on Wednesday, a further decline to 61,400 on Thursday, and a return to 61,500 by the end of the trading week on Friday. These minor variations in spot rates reflect the ongoing dynamics and subtle shifts within the cotton market.
- The arrival of cotton bales in North India has now exceeded 5000 bales per day, and it appears that it is poised to approach nearly 10,000 bales per day in the upcoming week.
- There has been a limited arrival of the new crop reported in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and certain parts of Andhra Pradesh. In general, the daily arrival of cotton bales across India currently stands at approximately 35,000 to 40,000 bales per day including old crop.
- The daily cotton bales arrival in Gujarat is approximately 10,000 bales.
- The nationwide sowing figures in India are now nearing their final numbers, and it is expected that our sowing will experience a nominal decrease compared to last year.
- The weekly USD-INR exchange rate exhibited minor fluctuations, starting at 83.03 on Monday, dipping to 82.92 on Tuesday, recovering to 82.98 on Wednesday, returning to 83.03 on Thursday, and closing the week at 83.18 on Friday.
- The monsoon has resumed, bringing much-needed rain to all cotton-growing regions.