GUJCOT WEEKLY REPORT 30-SEP-2023
Posted : November 29, 2023
Market Movement from 25th Sep 2023 to 30th Sep 2023.
- The ICE December cotton futures traded at 87.15 cents per pound, reflecting an increase from its value of 85.91 cents on September 22nd. Throughout the week, there was a notable uptick in cotton prices, reaching a high of 89.89 cents per pound on September 28th, resulting in a week-to-week change of 1.24 cents to the upside. However, when comparing the monthly changes, the cotton futures showed a decrease. At the end of August, the price stood at 87.82 cents per pound, while at the end of September, it had declined to 87.15 cents per pound, indicating a decrease of 0.67 cents to the downside over the course of the month.
- U.S. Export sales for the 2023-2024 season showcased robust activity, with net upland sales reaching 55,300 bales and upland shipments totaling 1,59,400 bales. Additionally, net Pima sales amounted to 15,600 bales, with Pima shipments reaching 2,100 bales, resulting in a total of 70,900 bales sold for this season. Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, net upland sales amounted to 11,000 bales, while there were no reported net pima sales, bringing the total sales for the season to 11,000 bales.
- The Gujcot Spot Rates displayed a generally stable trend throughout the week. The week began with rates at 60,550 on Monday, followed by slight increments as the week progressed. Tuesday saw rates at 60,700, Wednesday at 60,850, and Thursday reaching 60,900. As the trading week concluded, there was a slight dip to 60,850 on Friday. This pattern indicates a relatively steady and consistent performance in the cotton market over the course of the week.
- It's important to note that in Gujarat, there is the arrival of both the current cotton crop (referred to as the old crop) and the new cotton crop. Currently, cotton bales are being sold in three different varieties:
- Old stock cotton bales
- Old-New Kapas mix ginning
- Pure new Kapas ginning
- The prices for these varieties vary accordingly.
- The Indian physical cotton market has witnessed distinct trends across different regions:
- North India: This region has experienced a downward trend in cotton prices. This decline can be attributed to the increased pressure from cotton arrivals, concerns about the quality of the cotton, and worries about crop size. The quality concerns are exacerbated by the impact of pink bollworm infestation and untimely rain, which have affected the overall cotton quality.
- Maharashtra/MP: In these regions, cotton market conditions have also been influenced by quality issues. Some areas have been affected by rain, which has had an adverse impact on the ready crop. Consequently, in certain parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, cotton is being sold at discounted rates, particularly for lower-grade quality cotton.
- South India: In contrast, the cotton market in South India has remained relatively steady to slightly upward. This region has not been as severely impacted by quality issues or adverse weather conditions as the other regions, contributing to a more stable or even slightly improved cotton market outlook.
- These regional variations reflect the diverse challenges and conditions that influence the Indian cotton market, with each region responding differently to factors such as weather, crop quality, and supply and demand dynamics.
- The weather in Gujarat is predominantly sunny, with occasional rain occurring in certain parts of the region.
- The crop condition in North India is a cause for concern as it is experiencing a smaller crop size compared to previous years. In Central India, while there has been some damage, the overall condition is relatively good and satisfactory. However, in South India, there has been a reduction in sowing compared to the previous year.
- Starting from October 1st, which is tomorrow, we will officially embark on a new cotton crop season. This season begins with an ample supply of good old stock of Kapas held by farmers, carrying with it a unique set of experiences and memories. It's a time when the power of farmers takes center stage as they have the freedom to sell their cotton at their discretion. Additionally, this season is marked by optimism regarding both the quality and quantity of cotton in India.
- Throughout the week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed slight fluctuations, starting at 83.14 on Monday and ending at 83.04 on Friday. Despite minor variations, the rate ended the week lower than its initial value, reflecting evolving dynamics in the currency market.