GUJCOT WEEKLY REPORT 10-FEB-2024
Posted : March 02, 2024
Market Movement from 05th Feb 2024 to 10th Feb 2024.
- The NY March future experienced a significant surge in a huge bull run, driven by bullish WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) for the US current year. Technical indicators showed a notable crossing of the 90 cents mark for the first time in two seasons. This prompted a combination of technical buying, new speculative buying, and some short covering, resulting in a substantial week-over-week gain of 467 points.
- In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 01-Feb-2024, U.S. export sales for the 2023-2024 season showcased robust figures. Net Upland sales reached 2,84,100 bales, with Upland shipments totaling 2,48,500 bales. Net Pima sales amounted to 9,500 bales, accompanied by Pima shipments of 11,900 bales, resulting in a combined total sales of 2,93,600 bales for the specified period. Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, there were 34,600 bales of net Upland sales, while Pima sales stood at zero, bringing the overall total to 34,600 bales for the upcoming season. These statistics provide valuable insights into the current trends and performance within the U.S. cotton market.
- In the latest USDA-WASDE report for February 2024, the U.S. cotton balance sheet for the 2023-24 season shows lower ending stocks due to increased exports and reduced mill use. U.S. production remains unchanged, and the average price received by producers is projected to be 77 cents per pound. Globally, 2023-24 cotton ending stocks decrease by almost 7,00,000 bales, driven by lower beginning stocks and production. World consumption remains stable, with variations in different countries. World trade decreases by nearly 2,00,000 bales, primarily influenced by changes in China's imports and adjustments in other key cotton-producing and consuming nations.
- Gujcot Spot Rates experienced fluctuations throughout the week. Starting at 55,950 on Monday, the rates declined slightly to 55,700 on Tuesday before rebounding to 55,800 on Wednesday. The trend continued with an increase to 56,000 on Thursday and a further rise to 56,150 on Friday. The week concluded with the spot rate reaching 56,650 Rs per candy on Saturday.
- Despite the significant bull run in the NY futures market, the Indian physical market has not responded consistently. Factors such as substantial arrivals, cash crunch, and a considerable stock of cotton seeds with ginners have hindered the rate from surging rapidly. Nevertheless, the Indian physical market remains steady to firm, demonstrating resilience in the face of these challenges.
- The rapid bull run in the NY futures market and smaller increase in Indian physical market, has resulted in an attractive basis for Indian cotton. Saturday basis touched negative 475 points This favorable scenario will contribute to the enhancement of both raw cotton and cotton yarn exports.
- The USD-INR exchange rate displayed minor fluctuations throughout the week. Starting at 83.05 on Monday and remaining stable on Tuesday, the rate saw a slight decrease to 82.96 on Wednesday, followed by a marginal drop to 82.95 on Thursday. The exchange rate then experienced a modest uptick, closing at 83.03 on Friday. These subtle movements in the USD-INR exchange rate reflect the nuanced dynamics of currency markets, influenced by a myriad of factors including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and investor sentiment. Market participants and stakeholders carefully observe these fluctuations to assess currency trends and mitigate associated risks.