USDA-WASDE
Mar-2024

COTTON: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. cotton forecasts show lower production and ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 334,000 bales to 12.1 million, based on the March 8 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s U.S. area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2024 Crop Production report. Ending stocks are 300,000 bales lower this month at 2.5 million. At 18 percent, stocks as a share of use are projected their lowest since 2020/21. The projected marketing year average price received by upland producers of 77.0 cents per pound is unchanged from last month.

The global cotton supply and demand estimates for 2023/24 show higher production, consumption, and trade, but lower ending stocks. World production is 130,000 bales higher as lower U.S. and Argentine crops are more than offset by a 500,000-bale increase in India. Global consumption is almost 500,000 bales higher as gains for China and India more than offset lower estimates for Turkey and a number of smaller countries. World trade is about 400,000 bales higher as China’s 2023/24 imports are raised 900,000 bales, more than offsetting lower estimates for Turkey and several smaller countries. Exports are projected higher for India, Australia, and Turkey. Ending stocks are marginally lower, down 353,000 bales to 83.3 million.