GUJCOT WEEKLY REPORT 13-APR-2024
Posted : May 25, 2024

Market Movement from 08th Apr 2024 to 13th Apr 2024.

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  • There is a noticeable trend in NY cotton future market: many speculators are liquidating their long positions, driven by fear of delivery. Over the past three weeks, there's been a free fall in the market. In NY future, July is the leading month now. The increase in volume coupled with the decrease in open interest indicates that speculators are indeed liquidating their long positions. The anticipated tensions between Iran and Israel are exacerbating the situation.
  • NY May contract closed with a week-over-week loss of 363 points, while the July contract closed with a full carry of 197 points and close with loss of 323 points. The July to December inverse is narrow, standing at just 448 points.
  • In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 04-April-2024, the 2023-2024 season saw net upland sales totaling 81,500 bales, with upland shipments reaching 274,100 bales, while net Pima sales amounted to 8,000 bales, with Pima shipments at 15,900 bales, resulting in a total of 89,500 bales sold. Conversely, for the 2024-2025 season, net upland sales amounted to 35,700 bales, with no reported Pima sales, resulting in a total of 35,700 bales sold.
  • The April 2024 USDA-WASDE report maintains stable U.S. cotton supply and demand, with unchanged ending stocks and a slight decrease in the price for upland cotton. Globally, there's an increase in trade driven by higher imports in China, offsetting reductions in Pakistan and Indonesia. Despite stable production and consumption, global ending stocks decrease due to lower stocks in various regions, notably in West Africa, Australia, and Brazil.
  • This week in the cotton market, Gujcot spot rates fluctuated marginally with a slight downward trend observed towards the end of the week. Starting at 60,450 on Monday, rates saw a minor decline to 60,200 on Tuesday and Wednesday, maintaining stability before dipping to 60,100 on Thursday. However, the market experienced a more notable decrease by Friday, with rates falling to 59,500, reflecting a cautious sentiment among traders. The week concluded with a 59,200 rate on Saturday, suggesting potential shifts in market dynamics and investor confidence.
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  • All India arrival slowing down near to 50,000 bales a day while Gujarat contributing 20,000 bales a day.
  • Indian basis are higher due to sharp fall in NY Future Indian basis remain between 5.90 to 8.79.
  • This week saw the USD-INR exchange rate exhibiting a mixed pattern, largely maintaining stability early in the week before experiencing a modest fluctuation towards the end. Beginning at 83.31 on Monday and Tuesday, the rate remained steady before a slight decrease to 83.18 on Wednesday and Thursday. However, the market witnessed a moderate uptick on Friday, with the rate rising to 83.41, indicating potential shifts in currency dynamics amidst ongoing economic factors.

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