Market Movement from 06th Apr 2024 to 11th May 2024.

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• On Wednesday, the New York futures market saw a temporary surge, reaching a high of 80 cents. However, this upward momentum couldn't hold steady amidst prevailing bearish sentiments. Decent export sales, the release of bearish WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) reports only intensified the downward pressure on the market. As a result, the New York July futures ultimately closed with a weekly loss of 75 points, while the December future weekly loss was 84 points.
• The May 2024 USDA-WASDE report indicates a larger U.S. cotton crop for 2024-25, with higher planted area and reduced abandonment rates contributing to a forecasted production of 16.00 million bales. Despite lower national yields, production is expected to increase significantly. Global supplies for 2024-25 are projected to rise, driven by increased production in key countries like Brazil, the United States, and Turkey, outweighing smaller crops in China and India. Higher supplies are anticipated to boost exports and world trade to a 4-year high, resulting in a rise in global ending stocks to 83.00 million bales.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 02-May-2024, the figures for 2023-2024 showcased robust activity with net upland sales reaching 253,600 bales and upland shipments totaling 249,600 bales. Net Pima sales were reported at 5,700 bales, while Pima shipments amounted to 8,200 bales, culminating in a total of 259,300 bales sold. However, in the 2024-2025 period, there was a noticeable decline in net upland sales, dropping to 158,900 bales, with no recorded Pima sales, resulting in a total of 158,900 bales sold for the week.
• This week in the cotton market saw consistent pricing with Gujcot Spot Rate opening at 57,250 on Monday and maintaining stability through Tuesday at the same rate, before experiencing a slight uptick to 57,450 by Wednesday. The momentum continued as Thursday witnessed a further increase to 57,500, though the market experienced a minor dip to 57,400 by Friday. Closing the week, Saturday's rate 57,250, reflecting a balanced market sentiment overall.
• Currently, the daily arrivals of cotton in India are hovering around 40,000 bales. However, merchants to engage in full-scale selling is preventing rates from experiencing an upward trend.
• As the Indian basis remains favorable for basis players, they continue to offload their stock into the market.
• Due to the higher Indian basis, Indian mills are finding it difficult to attract buyers. Consequently, there is sluggish demand for yarn, leading Indian mills to make slower purchases only as needed.
• The Indian basis remains within the range of 7.69 to 10.41.
• In the current month, arrivals are expected to slow down, and ginning operations may close in most of the areas.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate remained relatively stable, opening at 83.48 on Monday and seeing marginal fluctuations throughout the week. Tuesday saw a slight increase to 83.50, followed by a minor rise to 83.51 by Wednesday. However, the exchange rate reverted to 83.50 on Thursday and remained unchanged through Friday, indicating a consistent trend with limited volatility in the currency pair.
• Let's hope for the best.