Market Movement from 09th Sep 2024 to 14th Sep 2024.

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• The December futures for cotton surged significantly due to fears of an approaching hurricane, technical buying, and a bullish WASDE report. The primary factor was a reduction in U.S. production, which was cut to 14.5 million bales. As a result, the December futures closed with a gain of 194 points.
• The September 2024 USDA-WASDE report for cotton shows reduced U.S. production, exports, and ending stocks for 2024-25. U.S. cotton production is forecast at 14.5 million bales, down 6,00,000 from August due to lower yields, particularly in the Southwest. Exports are reduced by 2,00,000 bales to 11.8 million, and ending stocks are down 5,00,000 bales to 4.0 million. The season-average farm price remains at 66 cents per pound. Globally, production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all lowered, with smaller crops in the U.S., India, and Pakistan, partially offset by higher production in China. The global price forecast ("A" Index) remains at 81.5 cents per pound.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 05-Sep-2024, U.S. export sales for the 2024-2025 cotton season reported net upland sales of 1,16,000 bales and upland shipments of 1,19,100 bales. Net Pima sales amounted to 10,700 bales with Pima shipments totaling 7,400 bales. Overall, the total combined sales for both upland and Pima cotton reached 1,26,500 bales for the current marketing year. No sales were recorded for the 2025-2026 season.
• The Gujcot Spot Rate displayed minimal fluctuations. On Monday, the rate was ₹59,700, slightly dipping to ₹59,600 on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the rate recovered to ₹59,750 and increased marginally to ₹59,800 on Thursday. The rate settled back at ₹59,750 on Friday, reflecting a generally stable trend throughout the week. Saturday’s rate is ₹59,650.
• The physical cotton market in India remained steady within a narrow range. Sunshine is needed across the entire cotton belt, which would be beneficial for the standing crop. As a result, mills are currently relaxed about making purchases. This week, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has not been able to sell large quantities.
• The new crop in the northern region has been delayed but is now expected to commence by the end of the month.
• Indian cotton basis levels are currently too high, causing disparities for Indian mills. The basis for Indian cotton remains near 2,100 TO 2,300 on relative to the NY December futures contract.
• The total sown area across India is 1,12,13,000 hectares, with Gujarat contributing 23,62,600 hectares to this total.
• The cotton belt has received better monsoon rainfall this year, raising hopes for improved yield.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate started at 83.95 on Monday and saw a slight increase to 83.97 on Tuesday. It further inched up to 83.98 on Wednesday, maintaining a steady range. However, by Thursday, the rate slightly declined back to 83.97, ending the week with a more noticeable drop to 83.89 on Friday. Overall, the exchange rate remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow band.
• Hope for the best.