Market Movement from 11th Aug 2025 to 16th Aug 2025.

• With support from a bullish WASDE report, NY futures pulled up on the day; however, limited demand and profit booking erased nearly half of the gains later. Overall, the market still struggled to break out of the tight 67–69 cents range. NY December ultimately closed with a week-on-week gain of 94 points.
• The USDA August 2025 WASDE report projects a tighter U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2025/26 with lower production at 13.2 million bales, reduced exports, and ending stocks down to 3.6 million bales (stocks-to-use ratio 26.3%), while higher abandonment in the Southwest is partly offset by stronger yields; the season-average upland price is raised to 64 cents per pound. Globally, both production and consumption are trimmed, with declines in the U.S., Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali outweighing a larger crop in China, while lower mill use in India, Bangladesh, and Turkey offsets gains in China. World trade is projected lower, led by reduced U.S. and African exports, and with smaller beginning stocks and production, world ending stocks are cut by 3.4 million bales.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 07-Aug-2025, U.S. export sales for the 2025-2026 season totaled 2,44,100 bales, comprising net upland sales of 2,42,000 bales and net Pima sales of 2,100 bales, while shipments reached 1,42,600 bales for upland and 12,000 bales for Pima. For the 2026-2027 season, net sales were minimal at 1,100 bales, all of which were upland, with no Pima sales recorded.
• The Gujcot Spot Rate remained steady at ₹56,600 on Monday and Tuesday, inched up to ₹56,850 on Wednesday, further increased to ₹56,950 on Thursday and Friday, and maintained the same level on Saturday at ₹56,950, indicating a gradual upward trend midweek before stabilizing towards the weekend.
• The Indian physical market also remained stuck in a narrow range, with tariff concerns and weak demand slowing down mill purchases. CCI too witnessed limited buying activity during the week.
• Imported cotton is being offered at prices much lower than domestic levels, leading mills with advance license facilities to actively book imports.
• Overall, NY futures, the Indian physical market, the Indian basis, and the Cotlook Index are all stuck in a tight, narrow range.
• The monsoon is well in progress. While some areas now require additional rainfall, the overall crop condition remains good.
• All-India sowing has reached 106.960 lakh hectares, with Gujarat contributing 20.586 lakh hectares. Overall, sowing across the country is lagging compared to last year, and Gujarat is expected to record the lowest sowing of the decade.
• During this week, the Indian basis remained between 13.92 and 15.60.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate opened at 87.66 on Monday, inched up to 87.71 on Tuesday, eased to 87.44 on Wednesday, rebounded slightly to 87.55 on Thursday, and remained steady at 87.55 on Friday, reflecting minor fluctuations within a narrow trading range.
• “Hope for the best.”