Market Movement from 08th Sep 2025 to 13th Sep 2025.
With weak export demand and a neutral-to-bullish WASDE report, the market failed to find momentum in either direction and remained range-bound. Ultimately, NY December closed the week with a gain of 80 points W/W.
Export sales were somewhat lower; however, with the harvesting of the new crop not yet in full swing, momentum is expected to peak next month.
In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 04-Sep-2025, U.S. export sales for the 2025-26 season showed net upland sales of 1,29,600 bales with shipments of 1,30,200 bales, while net Pima sales stood at 1,200 bales and shipments at 5,800 bales, bringing total sales to 1,30,800 bales. For the 2026-27 season, there were no reported upland or Pima sales.
The September 2025 USDA-WASDE report projects U.S. 2025-26 cotton production slightly higher at 13.2 million bales, with no changes to consumption, exports, or ending stocks, keeping the stocks-to-use ratio just over 26% and the season-average upland price steady at 64 cents per pound. Globally, production, consumption, and trade are all raised as gains in China, India, and Australia offset declines in Turkey, Mexico, and West Africa, while consumption increases mainly in China and Vietnam. With beginning stocks lowered due to higher prior-year use in China, 2025-26 world ending stocks are reduced by nearly 8,00,000 bales to 73.1 million, the lowest in four years.
This week, Gujcot Spot Rate showed a steady upward trend, starting at 55,100 on Monday, moving slightly higher to 55,150 on Tuesday, 55,200 on Wednesday, 55,350 on Thursday, and closing the week stronger at 55,400 on Friday, while Saturday’s rate stood at 55,400.
The Indian physical market is at a crossroads, with corporate buyers booking cheaper imports, while local mills and traders remain active in purchasing from CCI to take advantage of bulk discounts.
The CCI’s new season procurement process has begun, with farmers registering their intent through the CCI Farmers App. Meanwhile, the deadlock over ginning job work is expected to be resolved next week, following indications from the meeting between the Textile Secretary and ginners.
All eyes are on the new crop and the mood of farmers. In the new year, the key question is whether ginning units will be able to operate competitively against the MSP procurement system. If not, the industry may face a liquidity crunch until CCI opens its new sales.
The trade is closely watching developments in old crop CCI sales, the possibility of cheaper imports before the December window closes, and the pace of new crop arrivals ahead of the start of CCI’s new procurement.
All-India cotton sowing has reached 109.17 lakh hectares, with Gujarat contributing 20.812 lakh hectares.
Monsoon is progressing well in cotton-growing areas. However, in the northern region, the recent rains on already harvested crops have caused some damage and delayed arrivals. Other areas are still performing well. Let us hope Mother Nature continues to bless the crop.
During this week, the Indian basis remained between 13.11 and 13.41.
The Indian currency is weakening due to market sentiment, while no resolution has yet emerged regarding U.S. tariffs.
This week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed limited fluctuations, opening at 88.27 on Monday, easing slightly to 88.10 on both Tuesday and Wednesday, before rising to 88.44 on Thursday, and finally settling at 88.28 on Friday, reflecting a largely stable movement with minor ups and downs across the week.
Hope for best
Latest News
Shurely on Cotton 11-Sep-2025
What Cotton’s Situation Means for Southwest Georgia
This article was written for and published
