Market Movement from 08th Dec 2025 to 13th Dec 2025.

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• This week witnessed low volatility. Even the WASDE report was neutral, and the market largely ignored it, showing no significant reaction on either side.
• NY March cotton futures eased marginally, closing at 63.83 cents on 12 December, down from 63.93 cents on 05 December, registering a week-on-week loss of 0.10 cents.
• The December 2025 USDA WASDE report indicates a slightly more bearish outlook for cotton, with the U.S. 2025/26 balance sheet showing marginally higher production at 14.3 million bales due to improved yields, while mill use is cut to a historic low of 1.6 million bales, resulting in higher ending stocks estimated at 4.5 million bales, or 32.6 percent of total disappearance; the season-average farm price is lowered to 60 cents per pound. On the global front, cotton production, consumption, and trade are all revised modestly lower, mainly due to reduced output and mill use in Africa, Brazil, the U.S., and parts of Central America, while ending stocks edge slightly higher, keeping the global stocks-to-use ratio unchanged at a high 64 percent.
• For the week ending 13 November 2025, U.S. export sales for the 2025–26 season remained supportive, with net upland cotton sales reported at 1,87,600 bales and shipments of 1,13,200 bales, while net Pima sales stood at 8,900 bales with shipments of 7,800 bales, taking total cotton sales for the season to 1,96,500 bales. In contrast, forward bookings for the 2026–27 season were limited, with net upland sales of only 1,800 bales and no Pima sales reported, resulting in total sales of 1,800 bales, indicating cautious near-term demand for the new crop.
• The Gujcot Spot Rate showed a gradual upward trend, opening at ₹52,400 on Monday, increasing to ₹52,500 on Tuesday, moving up to ₹52,550 on Wednesday and remaining steady on Thursday, before strengthening further to ₹52,750 on Friday, and closing at ₹52,750 on Saturday, indicating a firm and stable market tone toward the end of the week.
• In India, cotton arrivals have picked up, with CCI actively buying at full pace. Current arrivals are broadly in line with CCI’s buying parameters. Daily arrivals are around 2,40,000 bales on CCI working days, while arrivals remain lower on non-working days.
• CCI has procured nearly 32.59 lakh bales to date.
• Indian physical cotton rates are moving upward, with better-quality cotton commanding higher prices. Premium kapas is trading at elevated rates due to competition with CCI, resulting in a widening price spread between higher- and lower-quality cotton.
• Mills have sufficient inventory and have also booked imported cotton that is yet to arrive, so they are not in a hurry to buy. However, sourcing better-quality cotton from the domestic market has now become difficult for mills.
• With a depreciating rupee, mills are benefiting from exports of finished goods, which is a positive sign for the market.
• During this week, the Indian basis remained between 10.20 and 10.64.
• This week, the USD–INR exchange rate showed mixed movement, opening at 90.07 on Monday before easing to 89.88 on Tuesday, then edging up to 89.97 on Wednesday; the rupee weakened further on Thursday as the rate rose to 90.37 and ended the week higher at 90.42 on Friday, indicating overall pressure on the rupee during the latter half of the week.
• Let’s hope for the best.