Market Movement from 12th Jan 2026 to 17th Jan 2026.

• Despite a somewhat bullish WASDE report and decent export sales, the market failed to pick up upward momentum. Ongoing uncertainty over the U.S. stance on Iran and Greenland kept market participants in a wait-and-watch mode. As a result, NY March closed the week with only a negligible gain of 25 points week-on-week.
• Export sales have improved to a decent level after a long time as current demand has strengthened. However, forward sales for the next year remain very slow, and in the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, market participants are reluctant to take larger long-term positions.
• The January WASDE report tightens both U.S. and global cotton balances, with U.S. production cut to 13.9 million bales and ending stocks reduced to 4.2 million bales, while globally lower output and higher consumption push world ending stocks down by 1.5 million bales, reducing the stocks-to-use ratio below 63 percent and supporting a higher U.S. season-average farm price of 61 cents per pound.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 08 January 2025, showed a strong performance for the 2025–26 marketing year, with net upland sales totaling 3,39,700 bales and upland shipments reported at 1,56,100 bales. Net Pima sales stood at 15,700 bales, while Pima shipments were recorded at 9,800 bales, taking total sales for the season to 3,55,400 bales for the week. For the 2026–27 marketing year, net upland sales were modest at 10,100 bales, with no Pima sales reported, resulting in total sales of 10,100 bales for the forward season.
• The Gujcot spot rate opened at ₹55,550 on Monday and moved higher to ₹55,850 on Tuesday, followed by a further rise to ₹55,900 on Wednesday; prices eased slightly on Thursday to ₹55,800 before recovering to ₹55,850 on Friday, and the market closed steady on Saturday at ₹55,650, reflecting a firm undertone with minor mid-week corrections.
• The Indian physical market is now steady to firm. The sales conditions for the new crop announced by CCI have provided some psychological support to mills, as the previously locked bales are expected to be marketed earlier. This sentiment has paused the upward momentum in prices.
• CCI has already procured nearly 82 lakh bales, and from today the registration process has been closed. With this, procurement is expected to conclude during the remaining period of January, after which sales of the procured cotton will commence.
• Indian physical cotton market (29 mm) remained steady in the ₹55,700–56,000 range. As large arrivals were seen in the first quarter of the season, farmers who have retained kapas are unwilling to sell at lower prices. Therefore, future market direction is expected to be largely driven by CCI pricing.
• With a weaker rupee, slightly firmer NY futures, and steady Indian physical rates, the Indian basis remains steady to slightly lower, ranging between 13.46 and 14.11.
• During the week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed a firming trend, opening at 90.15 on Monday and edging slightly higher to 90.19 on Tuesday. The rupee weakened further midweek with the rate rising to 90.30 on Wednesday and remaining steady at the same level on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the dollar strengthened sharply, with USD-INR closing at 90.86 on Friday, reflecting increased volatility and sustained demand for the greenback.
• “Hope for the best.”