Economic and Policy Outlook

• Over the weekend, tensions with Iran escalated, with the U.S. signaling a shift toward remote negotiations while activity around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, including vessel boardings and increased enforcement. A ceasefire in the region was extended, though broader uncertainty remains. Iran has floated reopening the Strait with conditions, adding further risk to global shipping and energy flows. This follows a volatile week driven by similar headlines, with crude oil moving higher as macro risk continues to steer markets.
• Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ appearance before Senate appropriators last week was largely focused on the FY27 USDA budget, but her remarks took an unexpected turn toward policy, with notable support for the Buying American Cotton Act (BACA). While the hearing centered on proposed funding cuts and restructuring, Rollins emphasized BACA as a priority, calling it a “game changer” for cotton producers and stating she “wants to do whatever I can to support it,” highlighting its alignment with broader administration initiatives.
• USDA increased Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) payments from 35% to 70% for approved 2023 and 2024 disaster losses, providing an additional 35% top-up to prior payments and setting future payouts at 70%. The application deadline was extended to August 12, 2026, giving producers more time to update or finalize submissions. To date, $6.7 billion has been distributed through SDRP, part of a broader push to strengthen the farm safety net amid ongoing economic and weather-related pressures.
• The House is expected to vote on the Farm Bill later this week, though the path forward remains uncertain as leadership works through amendment decisions and procedural hurdles.

Supply and Demand Overview

• U.S. export sales softened in the most recent report, with net upland sales totaling 119,900 bales for the current marketing year, down from the previous week and well below the recent pace. Vietnam, Turkey, and Pakistan continued to lead buying, with additional support from India and Malaysia, while some cancellations from China weighed on totals. New crop sales picked up to 57,100 bales, led by Vietnam and Indonesia. Pima sales were a bright spot, reaching a marketing-year high of 36,200 bales, driven primarily by India and China.
• Shipments came in at 296,400 bales, slightly below the prior week and recent average but still near the pace needed to stay on track for USDA’s 12 million bale export target if maintained. Pima shipments were lighter at 4,500 bales, though overall demand remains supportive. As peak shipping season continues, exports are holding together, but will still need to average just under 295,000 bales per week to meet the target.

The Seam®

• As of Friday afternoon, grower offers totaled 15,922 bales. The past week, 1,203 bales traded on the G2B platform received an average price of 70.15 cents per pound.  The average loan redemption rate (LRR) was 52.46, bringing the average premium over the LRR to 17.69 cents per pound.
• Note: The Loan Redemption Rate (LRR) is the loan rate minus the current Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP).

Sustainability Enrollment Opportunities

• Reminder, enrollment for the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol ends this Thursday, April 30, 2026. Growers who are currently enrolled will need to renew their membership to continue their involvement in the program. If your gin would like to host an Enrollment Field Day during this time, please reach out to PCCA at (806) 763-8011. Click here for a list of in-person sign-up dates.
• New Grower Enrollment for the Better Cotton Initiative will be open from March 3 to May 30. Growers interested in joining this global sustainability program should contact PCCA (806) 763-8011.