New York Futures

During October, NY December futures traded within a narrow range of 63.50 to 65.50 cents, reflecting limited activity ahead of the notice period. Similarly, NY March futures moved in a confined band between 65.00 and 67.50 cents.

Global cotton sentiment remained weak amid slow demand, soft macroeconomic indicators, and political uncertainties, leading the market to disregard most external developments and maintain a steady tone. The U.S. government shutdown resulted in a lack of transparency, as WASDE and export data were not released during the period, further limiting market direction.

Indian Market Overview

In India, kapas arrivals increased sharply, progressing faster than anticipated. Early in the month, arrivals stood around 30,000 bales per day, but later surged to approximately 80,000 bales daily.

Throughout the month, domestic cotton prices remained under pressure as the C.C.I. MSP procurement programme did not commence due to procedural delays related to job-work conditions and quality mismatches caused by persistent rainfall.

Excess moisture forced farmers to engage in compulsory sales of wet kapas at lower rates. Prices at the beginning of the month were around ₹54,000 per candy, but gradual increases in arrivals led to a decline to approximately ₹52,400 per candy around the festival period. However, cyclonic rains in the latter part of the month curtailed arrivals and provided temporary price support.

Mills and Trade Dynamics

Indian spinning mills continued to face challenges in securing export orders, with global demand remaining subdued. Nevertheless, mills maintained adequate inventories, enabling them to sustain operations despite weak international offtake.

The Indian basis fluctuated within the range of 10.57 to 14.11 cents during the month, reflecting a balanced yet cautious sentiment across the value chain.

Currency Movement

The Indian rupee traded in a narrow range of ₹87.50–88.50 per U.S. dollar throughout October. The currency witnessed intermittent fluctuations, alternating between marginal strengthening and weakening, but overall maintained stability against the dollar.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead to November, higher arrivals are expected, alongside the likely commencement of C.C.I. procurement operations. These developments could lend support to the domestic market.

Overall, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of steady arrivals, improved procurement activity, and stabilization in physical prices as the new crop season progresses.