Market Movement from 16th Mar 2026 to 21th Mar 2026.

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• Wishing all our stakeholders a very happy, prosperous, and healthy Hindu New Year.
• NY futures rose sharply on Wednesday following the announcement of a 3 lakh tonne import quota from China, firm MMF prices, the “Buy American Cotton Act,” and key technical price breakouts that triggered short covering and fresh buying interest. However, later in the week, prices gave up some gains due to a stronger dollar. Ultimately, NY May closed the week with a net gain of 146 points week-on-week.
• U.S. export sales and shipments were lower compared to the previous week.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 12-Mar-2026 reflected steady demand, with total sales for the 2025–2026 season reported at 2,04,500 bales, comprising net upland sales of 1,96,700 bales and net Pima sales of 7,800 bales. Shipments remained strong during the week, with upland shipments at 2,73,900 bales and Pima shipments at 5,200 bales, indicating continued export momentum. For the 2026–2027 season, total sales were recorded at 1,22,200 bales, entirely driven by upland cotton, while Pima sales remained negligible, suggesting early but moderate forward buying interest.
• This week, the Gujcot spot rate remained firm with a positive bias, starting at 55,000 on Monday, rising steadily to 55,250 on Tuesday and 55,750 on Wednesday, followed by a slight correction to 55,650 on Thursday. The market regained strength towards the end of the week, increasing to 56,000 on Friday and further improving on Saturday to 55,950.
• The Indian physical market witnessed a sharp surge as CCI increased its base selling price by around ₹1,500 per candy. Despite the price rise, daily buying remained strong, indicating healthy demand from both mills and traders.
• Indian basis has narrowed due to the sharp depreciation of the rupee and a strong surge in NY futures. This has created an opportunity for basis traders to purchase Indian cotton and hedge their positions in NY futures. Additionally, the weaker rupee has improved export parity for mills, encouraging higher yarn exports. As a result, demand from both mills and the trade has increased significantly.
• The Indian rupee declined to a record low of 93.71, marking its weakest level in history, amid escalating war tensions.
• Value-added processing units are facing operational difficulties due to a shortage of fuel. If the downstream value chain is unable to function efficiently, it could also create challenges in offloading higher yarn production.
• We hope that next week brings some positive news regarding a ceasefire in the ongoing war.
• During this week, the Indian basis remained between 7.52 and 8.96. Basis are first time in single digit for current year.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed mixed movement, opening at 92.42 on Monday and easing slightly to 92.37 on Tuesday. The rupee weakened mid-week, with the rate rising to 92.63 on both Wednesday and Thursday, before witnessing a sharp depreciation on Friday, closing at 93.71, indicating overall weakness in the domestic currency against the US dollar during the week.
• Let’s hope for the best.