Market Movement from 27th Apr 2026 to 02nd May 2026.

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• It was another strong week for bulls in the NY futures market, as positive technical indicators continued to attract buying interest. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, with no clear resolution to the war, pushed crude oil prices higher, making PSF more expensive and supporting cotton prices. Backed by improved market sentiment and speculative buying, NY July posted a robust weekly gain of nearly 5%, ultimately closing with an impressive rise of 483 points week-on-week.
• The spread between the July and December contracts narrowed to just 37 points, indicating limited selling pressure in the old crop.
• U. S. Export Sales and shipments remain strong and are progressing well toward meeting the target. If the current pace of shipments continues, the USDA may revise its export target upward.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 23-Apr-2026, U.S. export sales showed solid performance, with total sales for the 2025–2026 marketing year reported at 1,84,747 bales, comprising net upland sales of 1,62,879 bales and net Pima sales of 21,868 bales. Shipments remained strong, with upland shipments at 3,84,608 bales and Pima shipments at 17,794 bales, indicating steady execution of export commitments. For the 2026–2027 marketing year, total sales were recorded at 1,17,252 bales, including 1,05,747 bales of upland cotton and 11,505 bales of Pima, reflecting continued forward buying interest in U.S. cotton.
• During the week, the Gujcot Spot Rate showed a firm upward trend, opening at 61,300 on Monday and inching higher to 61,350 on both Tuesday and Wednesday. The market gained further strength on Thursday at 61,600, followed by a notable rise to 62,000 on Friday, reflecting improving demand and steady market sentiment. On Saturday, the rate remained steady at 62,250.
• In India, arrivals have slowed, while market sentiment remains strong. Due to the tightening supply, the market is gaining strength and selling activity has slowed. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has already sold around 60 lakh bales out of its total procurement of 105 lakh bales. There is also good buying interest for CCI cotton.
• For the first time since Covid, the India basis has turned negative despite strong NY futures and depreciation in the rupee.
• At the current attractive basis levels, hedge players are actively buying. Additionally, Indian spinning mills are benefiting from comparatively cheaper cotton than their global counterparts, resulting in improved margins. This has encouraged mills to maintain higher inventory levels for longer periods.
• During this week, the Indian basis remained between 3.43 and -0.87.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate showed a steady upward trend, indicating continued pressure on the Indian Rupee. The week opened at 94.19 on Monday and strengthened further to 94.54 on Tuesday, followed by 94.84 on Wednesday. The upward momentum persisted on Thursday, with the rate touching 94.91, and it remained unchanged at 94.91 on Friday. Overall, the Rupee depreciated throughout the week, reflecting sustained demand for the US Dollar and underlying market weakness in the domestic currency.
• Let’s hope for the best.