Market Movement from 11th May 2026 to 16th May 2026.

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• NY futures witnessed a bloodbath during the week, with extreme volatility dominating the market. Prices traded in a wide range, touching a low of 79.94 cents and a high of 88.88 cents, reflecting nearly a 9-cent fluctuation during the week.
• WASDE was slightly bullish due to lower crop estimates and reduced ending stocks. However, rain forecasts in Texas, the conclusion of the Trump–Xi Jinping meeting without any agricultural business developments, and a strong technical reversal played a major role in the market bloodbath.
• NY July closed with a loss of 412 points W/W, while NY December closed with a loss of 355 points W/W.
• The July-December spread turned inverse for one day, but it still managed to close with a small carry of 130 points.
• The USDA’s first outlook for the 2026/27 cotton season is moderately bullish for cotton prices, projecting lower U.S. production and ending stocks along with higher exports compared to 2025/26. U.S. cotton production is estimated at 13.30 million bales, down 6M00,000 bales year-on-year due to lower acreage, while exports are forecast to rise to 12.30 million bales on improved global demand. Ending stocks are projected to decline sharply to 3.90 million bales, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling to 28.1 percent, and the season-average farm price estimated at 73 cents per pound. For 2025/26, U.S. production was slightly reduced to 13.90 million bales, while the average farm price was raised to 63 cents due to recent strength in futures. Globally, 2026/27 cotton production is expected to decline by 6.6 million bales, while consumption is projected to rise to 121.7 million bales led by stronger demand from China, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, and Egypt. World ending stocks are forecast to fall 7 percent to 71.8 million bales as major exporting countries including the U.S., Brazil, and Australia reduce inventories to support exports.
• U. S. Export Sales for both the current and next year were lower, indicating weaker demand due to higher prices. However, shipments remained decent and are still in line with the pace required to meet USDA targets, suggesting that current demand continues to remain steady.
• In the latest U. S. Export Sales Report for the week ending 07-May-2026, were lower compared to the previous week, with net upland cotton sales for the 2025-26 marketing year reported at 47,699 bales, while upland shipments remained strong at 2,90,293 bales. Net Pima sales stood at 9,310 bales with shipments of 12,115 bales, taking total cotton sales for the current marketing year to 57,009 bales. For the 2026-27 marketing year, net upland sales were reported at 29,716 bales and net Pima sales at 7,917 bales, resulting in total new crop sales of 37,633 bales.
• This week, Gujcot Spot Rates showed a firm upward trend in the Indian physical cotton market. Rates opened at ₹65,400 candy on Monday and gradually strengthened throughout the week, reaching ₹66,000 on Tuesday, ₹66,650 on Wednesday, and ₹67,000 on Thursday. The market maintained its strength on Friday as rates remained steady at ₹67,000, while Saturday’s rate remained at ₹66,650.
• The Indian physical cotton market remained firm this week, supported by slow arrivals of around 40,000 bales per day and steady demand from spinning mills. The Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) continued to increase its daily base prices consecutively, yet demand remained strong despite the higher rates. During the week, CCI sold nearly 4.23 lakh bales, reflecting healthy buying interest from mills.
• Spinning mills are currently operating with strong sales and relatively high inventory levels, which is supporting mill margins. However, at higher cotton prices, the downstream textile and yarn market is facing some resistance, as end products are struggling to fully absorb the increased raw material cost. As a result, yarn sales have slowed slightly, although price levels and mill operations remain comfortable overall.
• In the last two trading sessions of the week, NY futures witnessed a sharp washout, but the Indian physical market remained steady to only slightly lower, resulting in another jump in basis levels. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the Indian rupee continued to support yarn export competitiveness.
• Indian basis jumped sharply from the weekly low negative 0.25 to the weekly high 8.44 by the end of the week.
• During this week, the Indian basis remained between -0.25 and 8.44.
• This week, the USD-INR exchange rate remained firm and continued its upward trend throughout the week. The rupee opened at 95.31 on Monday, strengthened marginally to 95.63 on Tuesday, further moved to 95.70 on Wednesday, and traded at 95.76 on Thursday before closing the week at 95.97 on Friday. Overall, the rupee depreciated against the U.S. dollar during the week amid firm dollar sentiment and cautious market undertone.
• Let’s hope for the best.