Market Movement from 06th Oct 2025 to 11th Oct 2025.
• Following President Trump’s remark about imposing tariffs on China and proposing a meeting with President Xi Jinping, the market reacted sharply negative. The NY December contract hit its contract low, trading in the 63–64 cent range. Both technically and fundamentally, the outlook appeared negative. Ultimately, NY December closed at 63.84, recovering slightly from the low, marking a weekly loss of 1.46 cents (W/W).
• The government shutdown has now stretched into a week with no clear end in sight, delaying key USDA reports and leaving cotton and other ag markets without their usual data signals. In the meantime, traders are watching harvest progress, export competition, and seasonal strength for direction. While past shutdowns haven’t always weighed on markets, the lack of fresh data adds a layer of uncertainty.
Market Movement from 29th Sep 2025 to 04th Oct 2025.
• During this week, NY October expired, and NY December became the lead month. December lost the long-term psychological support of 66 cents and even dipped below 65 cents intraday, though it managed to close back above 65 cents. Weak demand, the U.S. federal shutdown, and speculative selling pushed the market lower. Ultimately, NY December closed with a weekly loss of 110 points.
Gujcot Fourth Quarterly Rate Movement Report - 2024-25
• During the last quarter of the season, NY Futures remained stuck in a narrow closing range of 65.50 to 68.80 cents per lb. The Cotlook Index also stayed confined between 76.90 and 79.95 cents per lb. Several bearish factors weighed on the market, including the threat of U.S. tariffs, higher WASDE projections, heavy On-Call purchases, comfortable stock-to-use ratios, and expectations of big crops in Brazil and China.
• Markets are moving with an odd mix of confidence and caution, but the clock runs out on funding on Tuesday, and uncertainty is building. President Trump is set to meet with the four congressional leaders later this afternoon in a last-ditch effort to strike a deal (none of the parties seem to have much incentive now).
Possible for 2026: More Cotton Acres, Better Prices?
Early indications are that foreign cotton producers will reduce the area devoted to cotton production in 2026. However, the mass of planted area reductions would come from major foreign producing countries, as U.S. plantings should see a minimal increase due to an abnormally low carryover in the U.S.